polls

Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) leads Republican Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the latest Washington state presidential poll with 47 percent of the vote to McCain's 39, the Seattle P-I is reporting.

The poll, taken by the consulting firm Strategies 360, surveyed a relatively large sample of 1200 voters on June 26. In addition to the head-to-head, it also found favorability ratings of the two major party candidates. 54 percent of respondents reacted favorably to Obama compared to 37 percent negatively, while McCain had a 44 percent favorable and 46 percent unfavorable rating.

The margin of error for the poll was 2.75 percent.

The most recent Elway Poll, done June 18-22, followed up on its gubernatorial preference question by asking would-be voters what they thought "GOP" meant. Three fourths of the 405 registered voters knew that Grand Old Party stood for the Republican Party, but the other twenty-five percent of them got it wrong.

Fifteen percent of the respondents did not know what the acronym stood for while seven percent believed it represented the Democratic Party, and three percent thought something else entirely. Even more significant is that the sample of people who answered incorrectly fell relatively evenly across the political spectrum.

Gov. Chris Gregoire leads Republican challenger Dino Rossi in the lastest poll conducted by Elway Research. The poll, conducted among 405 registered voters from June 18-22, showed Gregoire with 47 percent of the vote, 8 points higher than Dino Rossi at 39 percent.

The P-I has some further data on the poll here, including stats on Gregoire's 6-point lead among independents and the large amount of undecided young voters.

Gallup has a new poll out today showing John McCain and Barack Obama tied in a national poll.  The LA Times had a poll yesterday that showed Obama beating our senior Senator by 12 points nationally.  The McCain campaign has done little to address the national polls with the media and the public for the most part is convinced Obama is well ahead. 

Obama may be ahead in national poll, he may even be ahead by 12 points, but it doesn’t matter.  Tell us who is leading with the most Electoral Votes based on current polls.  This is not as easy because you would need to do an accurate poll in each state which would be a much larger sample and much more expensive than the current national poll method.  If this was done we may learn that Obama still leads, but at least we would then have something accurate based on the current system we elect presidents.

Despite winning the yard sign war in many of communities along the highways of the 10th Legislative District, and regardless of the fact that Republicans have made state Sen. Mary Margaret Haugen's (D-Camano Island) seat one of their top targets in the state this year, the latest poll shows Republican challenger Linda Haddon (R-Oak Harbor) has not been able to crack the incumbency barrier.

Jerry Cornfield at the Everett Herald reports that the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee paid for a poll of 400 registered voters in the district, which showed Haugen with a 20 point lead over Haddon, 49-29. Haugen, who chairs the Transportation Committee, won re-election in 2004 with barely 50 percent of the vote.

KING TV and Survey USA conducted polls on two of the state's contested U.S. House races. The polling showed Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Auburn) leading Darcy Burner (D-Carnation) in the 8th Congressional District by a count of 51 percent to 45 percent, and in the 2nd District Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Arlington) leads Rick Bart (R-Arlington) 56 percent to 38%.

Both polls show a Republican advantage relative to the last election. In 2006 Reichert defeated Burner 51-48, and Larsen defeated Republican Doug Roulstone 64-35.

A new Rasmussen Poll shows Gov. Chris Gregoire with a 50-43 lead over Republican Dino Rossi. This is a narrower margin than last month's result from the same pollster that showed the incumbent with an eleven point spread, but closer than a February poll that had Rossi with a one point lead.

Rasmussen also showed both candidates' favorability ratings over 50 percent, with Rossi at 52 and Gregoire at 55. Gregoire leads among women by 18 points and Rossi leads among unaffiliated voters by 12, a marked contrast from the last poll which gave the governor a nine point cushion in that group.

A SurveyUSA poll, posted earlier today, shows Gregoire with a 50-47 lead over Rossi.

A new poll conducted by SurveyUSA for KING-TV in Seattle and KATU-TV in Portland, Oregon shows Gov. Chris Gregoire with a 4 point lead over Republican challenger Dino Rossi, 50-47. The poll was conducted from June 7 through June 9 among 900 citizens, 637 of whom identified themselves as likely voters.  

Rossi leads among men and Hispanics, but Gregoire is ahead in nearly every other demographic group.

Two polls in April by SurveyUSA showed similar numbers. Full results and crosstabs from the poll can be found here.

It’s Election Day in California.

Voters in the state are choosing general election candidates in several hotly contested congressional races. Also on the ballot are the dueling eminent domain measures 98 and 99. Voters in San Francisco and Marin will make their selection in a state Senate race. And Sacramento and San Diego have mayoral contests.

Polls opened across the state at 7:00 AM. They will close at 8:00 PM.

Stay tuned to PolitickerCA.com for results and up-to-the-minute news.

State Sen. Steve Stivers' (R-Columbus) campaign challenged opponent and Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy's (D-Lucetic) campaign to release the full internal poll it commissioned, showing Kilroy with a 10-point lead over Stivers in the race for the 15th Congressoinal District, as PolitickerOH.com reported earlier.

Stivers campaign manager Mike Hartley wrote-off the poll.

"It's paid for by Mary Jo, done by her pollster. It's an internal poll. Let's see them release the full poll," he said.

Hartley was unimpressed with the poll finding Kilroy in the lead.

"Second of all, for someone who's run for this office for three years and someone who's spent $3 million... she's under 50 percent," Hartley said. "We feel very confident that when people know Mary Jo, which they do and she's still under 50 percent, and they know Steve, we're very confident we'll win."