Jill Derby

DENVER – Jill Derby suggested in an interview today that a new poll showing her narrowly trailing U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City) is evidence that her campaign is gaining traction.

“I think the fact that we haven’t really started up yet with media, etc. and we are as close as we are is very significant,” she said.

Derby was referring to a new survey released last week showing her trailing the freshman Heller by just 5 percent. A survey released earlier on in the summer showed Derby trailing by a 14-percent margin.

Derby, who is here this week to attend the Democratic National Convention, indicated that her campaign would be coming up with media as soon as September.

DENVER – One of the Silver State’s noted political observers threw cold water on a surprising poll that showed Democrat Jill Derby running a surprisingly strong challenge to U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City).

“I find that poll hard to believe,” said newspaper columnist Jon Ralston, referring to the survey released last week finding Derby within five points of the first term Heller. The same survey in June found Derby 15 points behind.

“I don’t know whether they oversampled Washoe County, which Jill Derby beat Dean Heller last time but then got crushed in rural Nevada, which is the majority of the district,” Ralston continued. “But that poll doesn’t sound right to me. If that poll is right, though, that is saying something that no one else picked up on.”

DENVER — U.S. Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Las Vegas) said today that a new poll showing Jill Derby within striking distance of U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City) was evidence that the race, once thought to be something of a long shot for Democrats, was moving in Derby’s direction.

“We have the perfect candidate in Jill Derby. There isn’t anyone better suited in the state and more qualified to serve in Congress than Jill,” Berkley told PolitickerNV.com as she walked out of the Nevada delegation’s breakfast this morning at the Marriott hotel.

Derby, a former chairwoman of the Nevada Democratic Party, lost narrowly to Heller in their 2006 duel. The district, which encompasses a wide swath of area outside of Clark County, has historically trended Republican. But a poll released last week showed Derby trailing by only a 5-percent margin, down from the 14-point margin the same poll found in June.

A new Reno Gazette-Journal/KTVN poll finds Democratic challenger Jill Derby (D-Carson City) is within striking distance of incumbent U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City) in 2nd Congressional District.

Derby, a former state Democratic chairwoman, trails Heller 47 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll. However, the 5 percent margin of error and recent registration swings in the 2nd District favoring Democrats suggest the poll could actually be good news for the challenger.

In a June 14 Las Vegas Sun poll, Heller led Derby by 14 points, 53-39; he defeated Derby by five points in locking up his first term two years ago.

Registration numbers show Democrats have picked up 14,000 new voters in the district since then, while Republicans have lost voters.

Derby has also benefitted from financial support from the national Democratic party, which has targetted Heller's seat as vulnerable to takeover.

Nevada could have the country's youngest House delegation in 2010. Consider the following:

State Sen. Dina Titus (D-Henderson) appears to be in a good position to unseat U.S. Rep. Jon Porter (R-Henderson), and it's not outside the realm of possibility that Democratic challenger Jill Derby could defeat U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City).

If that happens and Democrats sweep all three House seats, it could set up an interesting situation in two years.

Whether or not Gov. Jim Gibbons (R-Sparks) runs for re-election in 2010 is irrelevant. If he runs, there will likely be a bruising primary, and if not there will be an open seat. Either way, it would be an enticing prize for Democrats -- and potentially for all three House Democrats --  considering the state's shifting demographics.

Titus could end up being a one-term representative. She has challenged Gibbons in the past and was expected to challenge him again in 2010 until she decided to pursue Porter's seat. And U.S. Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Las Vegas) insists she has no desire for statewide office, but then again, so does almost everyone who goes on to run for statewide office.

If all three House members run in the primary for the gubernatorial seat, then under this admittedly unlikely scenario, there could be three freshmen filling the state's House seats in 2010, and another in 2012 when the state picks up an additional seat after the census.

Democratic congressional candidate Dina Titus will skip the party's national convention in Denver next week, The Las Vegas Review Journal is reporting.

Titus (D-Henderson) will join her Republican opponent, U.S. Rep. Jon Porter (R-Henderson) and stay in the 3rd Congressional District during their respective conventions, spokesman Andrew Stoddard told the paper.

Titus ""is going to stay in the district. She decided she could get a lot done here," Stoddard told the LVRJ.

Porter and Titus held the first debate of a hotly contested campaign Monday night in Henderson. Polls show the Democratic challenger is giving the incumbent a run for his money, and Democratic leaders believe the seat is ripe for the taking.

Elsewhere in Nevada, 2nd District Democrat Jill Derby will travel to Denver for the convention, but not without drawing criticism from the GOP, which issued a press release saying Derby was only going to the convention to cozy up to the Washington crowd.

Congressional Quarterly  is changing its forecasts on two competitive U.S. House races in Nevada, and in both cases, there is good news for the Democrats.

CQ announced Wednesday it was shifting the 2nd Congressional District race between U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City) and Democrat Jill Derby from "Republican" to "Leans Republican," acknowledging the race is closer than previously thought.

The forecast looks even better for state Sen. Dina Titus (D-Henderson) in the 3rd Congressional District, the publication said. CQ switched Titus' race with incumbent U.S. Rep. Jon Porter (R-Henderson) from "Leans Republican" to its most competitive category: "No clear favorite."

Congressional candidate Jill Derby: Campaign Photo Democratic congressional candidate Jill Derby released a detailed energy plan Wednesday, with recommendations for reducing fuel demand, expanding renewable energy sources and expanded drilling in areas with "low environmental risk."

Derby said the nation must commit to a "Apollo-Project style investment" in renewable energy technology, specifically mentioning solar and geothermal energy as viable options.

Derby also advocated limited on-shore and off-shore oil drilling to meet demand until renewable sources become more readily available, though she stipulated drilling should only be conducted in areas that can sustain it without serious environmental damage.

Tuesday’s primary races for the U.S. House went as expected, with the favored candidates nabbing their party’s nominations and heading towards the general election.

In the 2nd Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City) and state university regent Jill Derby are headed to a rematch of their 2006 race. Heller led Ron Paul campaign activist James Smack by an 89 percent to 11 percent margin with 13.3 percent of the precincts reporting. Derby was uncontested in her primary.

“This marks the point at which this race really swings into high gear.  It’s an exciting time and we have growing momentum for our campaign here in the 2nd district,” Derby said in an email message this evening. “I have had a number of significant endorsements in recent weeks and we look forward to a race where we can address the big problems facing Nevada families.”

As election season heats up, candidates are moving into full pander mode. Thus far gas prices top the list of issues that are causing politicians of all stripes to abandon prior positions, disregard basic economic theory, and promise voters the impossible. This is not surprising given poll data indicating that voters' worries about the costs of filling up their tanks is a top concern as we move towards November.

Nonetheless, for rational-minded observers who might prefer that candidates not insult the intelligence of voters and instead present policy proposals that might actually do something to change the nation's energy policy (as opposed to offering cheap rhetoric with a shelf life lasting until, oh I don't know, right around Nov. 4), I find the whole situation nauseating. So in the spirit of the Olympics (which incidentally are occurring in China; the county whose increased demand for oil is a big factor for rising gas prices in the U.S.), I thought it would be appropriate to award medals to Nevada's best gas price panderers.