National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Ok.) told PolitickerKY.com that Kentucky may play well on Nov. 4 for Congressional Republicans in part because of the effect Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) may have down the ballot, even as speculation abounds about the negative electoral climate for Republicans.
Cole is in Kentucky today for an event benefitting the campaign of state Sen. Brett Guthrie (R-Bowling Green), who is seeking the open 2nd Congressional District seat. The NRCC chair particularly said Obama could negatively impact state Sen. David Boswell's (D-Owensboro) effort against Guthrie, though Boswell's campaign charged associations with the current administration were damaging to Guthrie in response.
"We certainly don't think that Senator Obama is going to run very well in the state and I think it's going to give an extra advantage to most of our congressional candidates," said Cole in a phone interview today.
"It really does vary state by state," Cole added of Obama's impact. "He just doesn't sell very well in conservative areas. There is a band of states that Obama is unlikely to do well in and is actually harmful down ballot to Democratic candidates. I think Kentucky is one of those states."
Cole speculated that Obama and other Democrats could be particularly cumbersome to Boswell's (D-Owensboro) bid to win the open 2nd District seat against state Sen. Brett Guthrie (R-Bowling Green). That seat is open given the forthcoming retirement of U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis (R-Cecilia).
In 2004, the 2nd district gave President Bush his largest margin of victory of any of the Commonwealth's 6 congressional districts and Obama polls significantly behind in the western Kentucky region of which much of the 2nd is comprised.
Boswell has parried inquiries about Obama in the past, and his recent commercials do not tout his party affiliation, instead referencing his anti-abortion and pro-gun positions.
"We have a lot of Democrats who are busy in conservative areas trying to run away from both their nominee and their party, and I think Boswell is in that position," said Cole.
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