Ingrid Reed

It's election eve, which means that it's time to journey up the Ivory Tower to hear what political analysts think will happen tomorrow.

The four analysts PolitickerNJ.com talked to today were unanimous in predicting a big win for Barack Obama over John McCain both nationally and in New Jersey, and were nearly certain that incumbent U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) would easily beat down the challenge by former Rep. Dick Zimmer.   

They were also unanimous in picking state Sen. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) over Republican Medford Mayor Chris Myers in the 3rd Congressional District.

Three out of four predicated that U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) would beat challenger Dennis Shulman in the 5th District, but by a narrow margin.  

Three out of four also felt that Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood) had the edge in her race against state Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Flemington) in the 7th Congressional District, while one gave Lance a narrow victory. Read more at Politickernj.com >

It's election eve, which means that it's time to journey up the Ivory Tower to hear what political analysts think will happen tomorrow.

The four analysts PolitickerNJ.com talked to today were unanimous in predicting a big win for Barack Obama over John McCain both nationally and in New Jersey, and were nearly certain that incumbent U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) would easily beat down the challenge by former Rep. Dick Zimmer.   

They were also unanimous in picking state Sen. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) over Republican Medford Mayor Chris Myers in the 3rd Congressional District.

Three out of four predicated that U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) would beat challenger Dennis Shulman in the 5th District, but by a narrow margin.  

Three out of four also felt that Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood) had the edge in her race against state Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Flemington) in the 7th Congressional District, while one gave Lance a narrow victory. more >

On her way to a meeting of the Bergen County Democratic Organization’s executive committee this morning, State Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D-Teaneck) said she was worried that the power vacuum in the party couldn’t have come at a worse time.

“This is a time of a little bit of confusion and anarchy at a very bad time, because we’re in the midst of a campaign,” she said.  “Now I, among other things, have been quite besieged by telephone calls from very average constituents who want to work for the Obama campaign, and I don’t even know where that’s being operated out of in Bergen County.  So there are many issues that need to be discussed and sorted out that are of import to the people we elect come November 4th, and therefore of import to the people we represent.  It’s a time of confusion and a very bad and inopportune time.”

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Last week, the non-partisan Quinnipiac University Polling Institute showed a hypothetical 2009 gubernatorial race in a dead heat, with U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leading Gov. Jon Corzine by just one point - 41%-40% -- well within that poll's plus or minus 2.5% margin of error.  But a new Zogby International poll released today, conducted for Garden State Equality, shows Corzine with nine point lead over Christie.

Republican State Chairman Tom Wilson said the numbers show today's poll slightly skewered towards Democrats.  As of June 3rd - after a huge influx of new Democratic registrants for the February presidential primary and, to a lesser extent, Republican ones -- New Jersey had 1.68 million registered Democrats, 1.03 million registered Republicans and 2.23 unaffiliated/independent voters.  The poll's sample group was made up of 331 Democrats, 226 Republicans and only 246 independent/unaffiliated voters.

"We know in New Jersey that's not exactly how the makeup goes," said Wilson.

Still, Wilson said, the poll shows troubling numbers for Corzine.

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Can’t wait until tomorrow night to see who wins the major U.S. Senate and Congressional primary contests?

Below are some predictions from pollsters, political science professors and observers who track Garden State politics. 

The observers were unanimous in their predictions for the Democratic Senate primary, foreseeing a relatively easy victory for incumbent Frank Lautenberg.  On the Republican end, the outlook was not so clear cut, with observers split between state Sen. Joe Pennacchio and former Rep. Dick Zimmer.  Ramapo College Finance Professor Murray Sabrin will have the support of presidential candidate Ron Paul’s fans, and could take some conservative voters away from Pennacchio. 

In the heated Republican primary in the 7th congressional district, state Sen. Leonard Lance is the clear favorite.  The 3rd district congressional primary, however, is a toss-up.  In what has been perhaps the nastiest race of the election cycle, it was tough decide who had the edge between Medford Mayor Chris Myers and Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly.

These races will likely be determined by a very small number of voters.  Even the most optimistic of outlooks puts voter turnout at approximately 30%, and most say they expect significantly less than that. 

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Over half a million voters have registered as Democrats during the last six months, according to the Democratic State Committee.

The DSC put out a press release today saying they’ve quantified the numbers, and that their party’s enrollment has increased by 48% in wake of the high turnout February 5th presidential primary.

The group said that Republicans had also caught “some of a tailwind,” inducting about 150,000 new voters to their ranks. 

"This is more than a trend, it's a remarkable increase in Democratic voters that will have a lasting impact," said Democratic State Chairman Joe Cryan.   "The people can't wait to bring the Bush era to an end and the best way to do that is to elect Democrats. It's not enough that the Bush Administration is coming to a close, the voters are rejecting everything with the Republican brand name."

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