Pindell Report

The Pindell Report, Politicker.com's political and campaign forecast, has released its final projections for Election Day. Using polling, historical and demographic trends, tracking campaign visits and spending, The Pindell Report ranks races in terms of their competitiveness and their status as either a toss-up or leaning or likely voting in a particular way.

In New Jersey, The Pindell Report's final breakdown is as follows:

With just four days left in the 2008 campaign, Republican Leonard Lance is poised to eke out an upset victory against Democrati Linda Stender, according to James Pindell, the editor of Politicker.com's The Pindell Report, which offers independent analysis of federal- and state-level races.  Pindell today moved New Jersey's 7th district seat from Leans Democratic to Leans Republican.

Pindell says that the decision of Democrats to dispatch their highest profile surrogate, former President Bill Clinton, to campaign for Stender is not something a campaign does when its ahead going into the final hours of a race.  PolitickerNJ.com reported this week that the Stender campaign has an internal poll showing her trailing Lance by four points.

"How did we get to this point?," Pindell asked.  "After a year of national Democrats and aligned organizations dumping millions of dollars behind Stender, the Democrat missed when she spent part of the last stretch of the campaign talking about abortion. If there is anything we learned from this cycle, it’s that social issues didn’t matter much. Other Democrats across the country gained traction by focusing on the economy. Should Stender indeed fall short, it would be a disappointing end to a race that Democrats had invested heavily in."

In a Democratic year, State Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Flemington) could win a congressional seat against the front runner, Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood)

With just four days left in the 2008 campaign, Republican Leonard Lance is poised to eke out an upset victory against Democrati Linda Stender, according to James Pindell, the editor of Politicker.com's The Pindell Report, which offers independent analysis of federal- and state-level races.  Pindell today moved New Jersey's 7th district seat from Leans Democratic to Leans Republican.

Pindell says that the decision of Democrats to dispatch their highest profile surrogate, former President Bill Clinton, to campaign for Stender is not something a campaign does when its ahead going into the final hours of a race.  PolitickerNJ.com reported this week that the Stender campaign has an internal poll showing her trailing Lance by four points.

"How did we get to this point?," Pindell asked.  "After a year of national Democrats and aligned organizations dumping millions of dollars behind Stender, the Democrat missed when she spent part of the last stretch of the campaign talking about abortion. If there is anything we learned from this cycle, it’s that social issues didn’t matter much. Other Democrats across the country gained traction by focusing on the economy. Should Stender indeed fall short, it would be a disappointing end to a race that Democrats had invested heavily in."

MANCHESTER--Before laying out his legislative accomplishments over the past six years, U.S. Sen. John Sununu (R-Waterville Valley) told a local business club that he is looking forward to the remaining days of his re-election campaign.

"As I've pointed out to people having gone through a long campaign for 12, 14 months, really the last 2 or 3 weeks are the most exciting and invigorating part of the campaign because it's an opportunity where most of the organizational work and the fundraising work is completed," Sununu said at a meeting of the Manchester Rotary Club. "I get to focus exclusively on talking to people and campaigning town-to-town."

Politicker.com's James Pindell says Democrats will pick up 7 Senate seats, 16 House seats; won't get filibuster-proof majority in Senate

NEW YORK -- With two weeks until Election Day, Democrats are set to pick up seven seats in the U.S. Senate and 16 in the House, according to James Pindell, the editor of Politicker.com's Pindell Report, which provides independent analysis of federal- and state-level races. For the 111th Congress, The Pindell Report forecasts the Senate at 58-41 (counting two Independent lawmakers caucusing with the Democratic majority) and the House at 252-180. The Senate race in Alaska, and three House races (in Florida, New Mexico and Kansas), remain toss-ups.

MINNEAPOLIS - Rep. Dave Reichert (R-Auburn) has consistently shown up on lists of vulnerable Republican House incumbents in 2008, just two years removed from a close race in 2006 in a district that voted for John Kerry. Among those is the Pindell Report, which showed Reichert's rematch with Democrat Darcy Burner as the country's most competitive.

Still, he won the primary on August 19 by four percent and it was just revealed that the National Republican Congressional Committee was dedicating a million dollars toward advertising on behalf of his campaign. Both are signs that his race will be close, but that Reichert may have a slight edge. King County Republican Party Chair Lori Sotelo agrees.

For those of you out there who can never get enough of national politics and the horse race aspect of the campaign, I want to make sure you have see the Pindell Report. 

The report is done by our national editor and can be found on our national site Politicker.com.