Scott Rasmussen

Here is all the advice you need on polls taken months before the election, where there is absolutely no evidence that they will be reflective of the voters in November: IGNORE THEM!  Ignore them when they are good and ignore them when they are bad.  The temptation to embrace the good numbers will make it impossible to repel the bad numbers that appear later. The Allen campaign is seeing that play out this week.

Last Week Scott Rasmussen told us that the Collins v Allen race was tightening up. In fact, according to Rasmussen, Allen had closed the gap to just 7 points. That was quite a move from the 15 point margin earlier in the Spring. It was pretty clear that the better Allen numbers were coming at a good time. Just a few short weeks ago, one of the third party groups, unionfacts.org released a poll trumpeting a 15 point lead for Collins. That news was quickly followed by news of a two million dollar cash on hand advantage for Collins. To say the Rasmussen numbers came at good time would be an understatement.

Obama, on the other hand, is a fairly reliable liberal.  His speeches, however, clearly connect well with the voters -- and not just liberals.  If the Rasmussen numbers are to be believed, then it means that Obama's rhetoric of "Hope, change and turn the page" is working with Maine's middle of the road voters.  

It is worth noting, that twenty-two points is not an impossible number to reach, Ronald Reagan won Maine in 1984 with 61 to 39 trouncing of Walter Mondale.  

Is Barack Obama the next Ronald Reagan?  Is John McCain the next Walter Mondale?