Mike Ward

Former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R-Louisville)'s challenge of U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Louisville) is widely considered the most competitive House race in the state. And though U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Louisville) is thought to be relatively safe, political observers are keeping a close eye on Bruce Lunsford's (D-Louisville) campaign against the incumbent.

It's interesting that these are the two of the most-watched races in the state. The last time an incumbent U.S. Senator from Kentucky lost a re-election was in 1984, when McConnell defeated two-term U.S. Sen. Dee Huddleston (D) by less than half a percentage point. Likewise, the last time a sitting U.S. Representative from Kentucky was defeated was in 2006 when Yarmuth unseated Northup by 51 to 48 percent. Ten years earlier, Northup herself defeated incumbent U.S. Rep. Mike Ward (D) by an even narrower 50.3 to 49.7 percent margin.

The entrance of a third-party candidate in the 3rd Congressional District race could have an impact on the November election. Calling himself a "disenfranchised Goldwater Republican", Edward Martin announced that he will run as a Libertarian candidate for the seat currently held by U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Louisville).

Could Martin attract enough other "disenfranchised Republicans" to give Yarmuth the winning margin over former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R-Louisville)?

The last time a third-party candidate played a potentially deciding role in the district was in 1994 when Democrat Mike Ward edged out Republican Susan Stokes by 44.4 to 44.1 percent. That year, Richard Lewis ran as an anti-abortion candidate for the Taxpayers Party of Kentucky and drew 11.5 percent of the vote.

Other than that recent exception, third party candidates have had minimal impact. In 2000, Libertarian candidate Donna Walker Mancini received 2.9 percent of the vote when then-incumbent Anne Northup defeated Eleanor Jordan (D) by 52.9 to 44.2 percent. Northup was easily re-elected in 2004 when Libertarian candidate George C. Dick received 1.9 percent of the vote. But in a tight race in 2006 when Yarmuth defeated Northup by a narrow 3 percent margin, Mancini managed just 0.9 percent of the vote.

On the heels of a narrow loss across the river in Indiana last night, the Obama campaign is ramping up efforts to lessen Senator Hillary Clinton's wide lead in Kentucky. On a conference call today, Obama superdelegate and Congressman John Yarmuth (D-Louisville) announced the launch of the Kentucky Leadership Committee, a forty-one member list of former and current elected officials supporting Obama's candidacy.

Yarmuth is joined on the committee by Congressman Ben Chandler (D-Versailles) - another Obama superdelegate - and former Congressmen Mike Ward (D-Louisville), Roman Mazzoli (D-Louisville), and Ken Lucas (D-Richwood).

Yarmuth noted the Committee could help sway Kentucky's three undecided superdelegates to Obama.

The Congressman also shrugged off suggestion that Hillary Clinton should quit the race following last night's primaries.

"I don't want her to drop out until May 21," said Yarmuth, pointing to the day after the Kentucky primary. "I think that it sustains interest in the campaign and sustains interest in our nomination...In my opinion, it does not hurt us if she stays in the race.

Former 3rd District Congressman and radio talk show host Mike Ward (D-Louisville) was the star of the latest email dispatch from the campaign of Democratic Senate candidate Bruce Lunsford.

In a message sent to supporters, Ward says Lunsford is"the only Democrat who can beat Mitch McConnell and that is why I am endorsing his candidacy for U.S. Senate."