Patrick Murray

For years, conservative activist Steve Lonegan has been seen by the state's moderate, mainstream Republicans more as a thorn in the side than a boon to their party.

But after leaving office as the mayor of Bogota, the ever-controversial Lonegan has - at least on the surface - made nice with some of the party's more high profile members as he's dramatically increased his statewide profile.

Take the convention run shortly before the U.S. Senate primaries at the Trenton Marriot, where Americans for Prosperity - the anti-tax group whose New Jersey chapter Lonegan heads up - brought out a couple national Republican luminaries and a few New Jersey Republicans who typically aren't seen with Lonegan.

Once you got past the 3,000 pound fiberglass pig perched atop a trailer parked outside the hotel, you could meet not only some of the  of the Republicans' most conservative legislators -- like Assembly members Michael Patrick Carroll, Richard Merkt, Allison Littell-McHose and State Sen. Gerald Cardinale.  But also present were members of the new crop of Republican leadership like Tom Kean, Jr., Kevin O'Toole and Joe Kyrillos.

The convention came about six months after the November surprise defeat of two ballot initiatives that Lonegan fought hard against, including one to borrow money for stem-cell research.  Political observers differ on how much credit Lonegan gets for the measures' defeat, but he was most vocal opponent, and became the face of the effort.

Recent polls on the U.S. Senate race confirm what New Jersey political observers already knew: Dick Zimmer is in a tough situation.

If Zimmer, the Republican nominee, is to have any hope of defeating Democratic incumbent Frank Lautenberg in November, he'll need to capitalize on each and every gaffe Lautenberg makes on the campaign trail. But that will be difficult, since Lautenberg has laid low, which experts say is meant to not risk upsetting the state's natural Democratic inclinations. 

The status quo won't likely work for Zimmer. Although he's running against an 84-year-old incumbent lawmaker with lukewarm approval ratings, Zimmer still trails by margins from the high single digits to low double digits in most polls. One poll from last month, however, showed the two in a statistical dead heat. A Gannett/Monmouth University survey released today showed Zimmer 11 points behind Lautenberg with registered voters and eight points behind him with likely voters. Zimmer has little money -- only $411,000 in the bank to Lautenberg's nearly $1.3 million. On top of that, the state's Democratic base is excited over Barack Obama's presidential candidacy. 

Incumbent Frank Lautenberg has an eight point lead over Republican Dick Zimmer, 45%-37%, among likely voters in his bid for re-election to a fifth term in the U.S. Senate, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning.

“While Lautenberg leads, many voters cannot commit to either candidate. This is usually bad news for the incumbent. However, Republicans are not showing their typical early support for the GOP nominee,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Couple this with the high number of voters entertaining a third party vote, and it’s clear that Dick Zimmer still has work to do with his own base before he can start courting independent voters.”

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 48%-34% margin in New Jersey, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning. Without leaners, Obama leads 42%-28%. Among likely voters, Obama leads 50%-36%, including leaners.

The revelation that U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie is investigating former CWA Local 1034 President Carla Katz, reported by the Star-Ledger yesterday, has unavoidable political ramifications.

Christie is, in effect, investigating the ex-girlfriend of the man he will likely face off against if he chooses to challenge Gov. Jon Corzine next year.

You won't hear them go on the record about it, but the idea has some Democratic insiders grumbling.

"It sure as hell doesn't look right, I can say much," said one prominent Democratic official.

With only $155,000 on hand, Medford Mayor Christopher Myers, is facing the most well-funded open seat challenger in the country: State Sen. John Adler, who has amassed a $1.9 war chest. 

But a potentially huge pool of cash looms on the horizon for Myers.  According to the latest Federal Election Commission filings, Jim Saxton, the retiring 12-term Republican incumbent, has a war chest of a little over $1 million.

Will Saxton help Myers, his protégé and close friend, level the playing field in a district the GOP has held since 1884?

Patrick Murray, the Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, has an interesting post on summer polling in U.S. Senate races that is a must read for campaign watchers.

We’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see the results of the Quinnipiac poll that measures Gov. Corzine’s approval rating and the Senate race between Frank Lautenberg and Dick Zimmer.

But state Senator/Essex County Republican Chairman Kevin O’Toole predicts that the poll on the Senate race will be close.

“Lautenberg has not been loved by the electorate.  Look at his number.  He has a 54% or 55% (approval) on his best day,” said O’Toole.  “I think his best days are behind him.”

Can’t wait until tomorrow night to see who wins the major U.S. Senate and Congressional primary contests?

Below are some predictions from pollsters, political science professors and observers who track Garden State politics. 

The observers were unanimous in their predictions for the Democratic Senate primary, foreseeing a relatively easy victory for incumbent Frank Lautenberg.  On the Republican end, the outlook was not so clear cut, with observers split between state Sen. Joe Pennacchio and former Rep. Dick Zimmer.  Ramapo College Finance Professor Murray Sabrin will have the support of presidential candidate Ron Paul’s fans, and could take some conservative voters away from Pennacchio. 

In the heated Republican primary in the 7th congressional district, state Sen. Leonard Lance is the clear favorite.  The 3rd district congressional primary, however, is a toss-up.  In what has been perhaps the nastiest race of the election cycle, it was tough decide who had the edge between Medford Mayor Chris Myers and Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly.

These races will likely be determined by a very small number of voters.  Even the most optimistic of outlooks puts voter turnout at approximately 30%, and most say they expect significantly less than that. 

The award for the most ridiculous press release of the year – so far – goes to George Ajjan of the Murray Sabrin for U.S. Senate campaign.  Ajjan claims Sabrin is the front runner for the GOP nomination, and points to a PolitickerNJ.com poll where he leads Dick Zimmer by twelve percentage points as evidence of his  electoral success so far.   This website enjoys our online polls, which are for the amusement of our readers and not at all scientific.  Most of the time our readers get things right, but on this  one, Sabrin might be better served by looking to Patrick Murray for analysis on this one: in a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released today, Sabrin was at 4% among Republican voters.