Rick Perry firing a six shooter at a promotional event in 2010. (Photo: Getty)

TAMPA, FL -- Former presidential candidate and Governor of Texas Rick Perry is quite possibly carrying a weapon on the streets of Tampa as he attends the Republican National Convention. We spotted Mr. Perry a few moments ago walking into the CNN Grill, which the cable network set up to provide politicians and journalists a place to mingle and unwind during the RNC festivities. Since he has a well-documented "long love affair" with firearms Politicker asked Mr. Perry whether he was "packing" at the RNC.

"You never know, that's why they call it a concealed weapon," Mr. Perry said with a chuckle and a pat on his hip as he made his way into the Grill.

Though there is an extensive list of banned items in the secure "event zone" surrounding the RNC, concealed weapons are not being prohibited in downtown Tampa during the convention. For security reasons, Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn wanted to temporarily ban guns in downtown Tampa for the duration of the RNC festivities, but he was overridden by Florida governor Rick Scott. Though Mr. Perry will be able to pack heat at all of the RNC parties and events in downtown Tampa, guns are not allowed within the security perimeter surrounding the convention floor itself.

Rick Perry (Getty)

Texas governor and former presidential candidate Rick Perry sat down for a video interview with National Review Online last week and he discussed his reasons for opposing gay marriage. Mr. Perry addressed the topic when he was asked about voters who admired his economic policies, but wished he would "just back off on the social issues." He answered by explaining that he thinks, though society may be becoming gay friendly, God's stance on same-sex marriage is quite clear.

"The issue of traditional marriage is one that continues to bubble forward and I happen to believe that, if you're going to have a society that is successful economically or otherwise, you're going to have to have values that you attach that society to. For 2,000 years we have had marriage between a man and a woman," said Mr. Perry. "I suspect that issue's not going to go away, but just because you share a different view or you are flexible on the issue does not mean that God has changed his mind about it."

Mr. Perry acknowledged that his views on gay marriage and abortion might earn him some detractors, but he refuses to "back away" from his position on those issues.

"If you're going to base your public service upon your values, then you're going to get criticized by those who don't agree with those values. I don't back away from my positions on traditional marriage, on abortion," Mr. Perry said. "They're values that, from my perspective, they can't be equivocated. You're either for traditional marriage or you're not. You're either for protecting innocent life or you're not."

Watch a clip of Mr. Perry talking about gay marriage below.

Drawing by Fred Harper

Not long ago, the political and media cognoscenti maintained a strict code of conduct: never—except in the privacy of a late night bar stool, after all the recorders have been turned off and the stories filed—should the next presidential election be speculated upon before the current one concludes. Eventually, after the last of the ballots were counted, some poor pundit would find himself on cable news, and with the newly completed campaign season no longer able to stomach more blather, he would gamely look ahead to the campaign four years hence.

And the world, it seemed would emit a loud groan. Too soon! We are politics-sick! No more horse-race frivolity!

Not so in 2012.

Instead, the race four years from now is taking up so much oxygen that at times it looks as if it could crowd out the one five months from now. All the way back in March, The Fix, The Washington Post’s well-respected political blog, ran a feature called “Sweet 2016,” which allowed readers to vote round-robin style who they wanted to—or who they thought would—win in an election nearly five years away, choosing amongst such local luminaries as Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Gov Chris Christie, not to mention figures from further afield, like Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren (who, it should be noted, may be the first person in history to be seriously floated for the presidency while trailing in her inaugural political endeavor) current GOP heartthrob Marco Rubio, former GOP heartthrob Bobby Jindal and (because third Bush is a charm, right?) Ole Jeb.

And much like the Major League Baseball all-star game, for which fan voting in big cities like New York means an inordinate amount of Yankees and Mets in the line-up, so Mr. Cuomo bested Ms. Clinton in the final round of the Democratic tournament bracket and vanquished Mr. Rubio to cut down the nets.

This exercise was given fuller flower last week when The Daily News devoted a full-page story to a poll of New York City Democrats about whether they prefer Ms. Clinton to Mr. Cuomo (the answer: Ms. Clinton, by a lot) although most pollsters concede that even their 2012 state polls remain too far in advance to be predictive. POLITICO has logged hundreds of articles and blog posts on the subject already. The Times has gotten in on the act too, laying out the front-runners’—if such a term can exist when no one is running—paths to victory.  (Full disclosure/confession: this reporter too has gotten in on the act, once comparing what the respective political paths of Mr. Cuomo and Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley mean for the future of the Democratic Party. The purpose here is to diagnose, not condemn.)

And much of the speculation dates back far earlier, back to last year when the Republicans were crossing the cornfields of Iowa. Imagine if in the previous presidential cycle such speculation had been allowed to flower:  In 2003-2004, Barack Obama would have been simply a state legislator from Illinois, there was no YouTube, no Facebook and the next election seemed destined to turn on who was best to take on terrorism and defend the nation from gay marriage.

Political veterans, both on the campaign and media side say that there  are several reasons why the distant future has seemed so present.  Firstly, it must be said that as presidential elections go—national events that H.L. Mencken once described as “better than the best circus ever heard of, with a mass baptism and a couple of hangings thrown in”—this one has been more like a ragged carnival come to town, with a first communion and a suspended sentence thrown in. The primary season was obviously non-existent on the Democratic side, and the Republican side yielded only one candidate who could plausibility be considered a nominee, especially after Tim Pawlenty dropped out, and Rick Perry was unable to remember that he wanted to shutter the Department of Energy.

Strategists on both sides of the aisle privately concede that the show isn’t going to get any better now that the general election has begun in earnest. Even as polls show Mr. Obama and Mitt Romney to be essentially tied, and even as the economy continues to sputter—and could grow worse depending on what happens in Europe and the Middle East.  Through some combination of the incumbent’s advantage, Mr. Obama’s continued high likeability rating in the face of dismal political news, and the belief that Mr. Romney is a flawed candidate who can easily be painted as out-of-touch, there is a grudging but persistent sense that this election will not be the November nail-biter that the last several have been. In fact Gov. Perry has already publicly mentioned a possible 2016 run, apparently forgetting such a run would be inconvenient if Mitt Romney actually wins.

“It’s two things,” said Curt Smith, a former speechwriter for President George H.W. Bush and now a lecturer at the University of Rochester. “One, even Democrats who will support Obama will do so with the scales having fallen their eyes. You can do away with ‘the change you want to believe in.’ And two, it’s the same with Repubicans, who are not mesmerized with the ‘Charisma Kid’ Mitt Romney and would support Mother Goose if the Republicans nominated her. Each side, in their hearts, wishes someone else were running.”

(Mr. Smith also noted that his own pick for 2016 was Marco Rubio.)

And if it is hard to generate the excitement this time, part of the reason is that there may still be a political hangover from 2008. That election featured the first serious Black candidate; the first serious female candidate, an ex-senator’s love-child and an Alaskan fashion plate-cum-frontierswoman. That’s not even bringing up Joe the Plumber, Jeremiah Wright, The Weather Underground, an unwed teenage mother, an ex-prisoner of war, a former Law and Order star, and Rudy Giuliani.

Back then, Barack Obama was the biggest ticket in town, drawing as many as 100,000 people to rallies late in the campaign. This time around, the president was unable to fill an 18,000-seat arena to kick off his run.

It is not just pundits however who are looking past 2012. On the GOP side at least, a host of pols made the same calculation—that this year’s climate wasn’t right—and thus decided to take a pass in favor of a go in 2016.  What this meant, beyond making life easier for incumbents (and duller for the rest of us) was that 2016 actually could turn into a replay of 2008 in terms of the level of excitement and interest. Add to the fact that a lot of the top tier Republicans who decided against a run this time around did so because they had been newly elected as part of the Tea Party wave in 2009-2010, and 2016 really does seem likely to live up to Mencken’s exacting standards.

Consider just those who turned down pleas to run in 2012. Chris Christie is every videographer’s favorite. Bobby Jindal and Nikki Haley, two young, Asian-American southern governors, are favorites of a party frequently decried for being older and whiter than the rest of the nation. Marco Rubio has been called “our Obama” by conservatives ever since he was in the Florida legislature. And there are also senators like New Hampshire’s Kelly Ayotte, Rand Paul of Kentucky. Rounding out the list are those who dipped a toe in 2012 only to wait until the water was warmer: Paul Ryan, Eric Cantor, Mitch Daniels and Rob Portman. That’s a lot of names.

The Democratic side looks comparatively leaner, but by 2016 the bench will have had eight years to grow. If Vice-President Joe Biden runs, he would clear the field, but otherwise voters may be treated to an epic Empire State battle between an icon and a popular governor, while a host of Southern state and heartland pols wait in the wings—Mr. O’Malley, Tim Kaine and Mark Warner of Virginia, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Brian Schweitzer of Montana.

And with the field getting crowded, would-be contenders have realized that they need to start laying the groundwork or risk being left behind.

“With the great exception of Secretary Clinton and Governor Cuomo, you do have people on that list who are talking about running, who have appeared at fundraisers and on the cocktail circuit, and who are saying, ‘Yea, I want to put a team together,’” said Tracy Sefl, a veteran if the 2004 presidential campaign and a top Democratic political consultant in Washington D.C. “We—consumers of the news, and creators of the news—are not a patient people.”

(Asked her own pick for 2016, Ms. Sefl responded, “I have always thought governors bring important qualities to bear on national office. I love Governor Cuomo and I love Governor O’Malley.”)

But even if 2016 didn’t give the media something to look forward to in the dreary days of this campaign, they (we) would probably go ahead and do it anyway. For years, we have been warned against a time when the political press will be entirely consumed with process over policy, and at last, that day seems to have arrived. The 24-hour cable networks, the proliferation of web outlets and the traditional press pool have created a maw of content demand, one that outpaces the current campaign’s ability to fill it.

“It’s idle speculation designed to fill a huge vacuum that never would have made it into print or on the air in the days before blogs and cable news stations,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “Anything anyone can come up with to fill a little air time gets on the air. If you are looking for a reason, that’s it.”

Be that as it may, we can’t wait for the 2020 campaign between Chelsea Clinton, Malia Obama, Tareq Salahi and Todd Palin. Runners, to your marks!

dfreedlander@observer.com

Gov. Rick Perry (Photo: Wikimedia)

Texas Governor Rick Perry finished in sixth place in New Hampshire tonight, scoring last among the main candidates for the GOP nomination. As the rest of the field is making their concession speeches on television, the Perry campaign phoned it in, so to speak, by conceding electronically.

"Tonight's results in New Hampshire show the race for 'conservative alternative' to Mitt Romney remains wide open," the statement read. "I skipped New Hampshire and aimed my campaign right at conservative South Carolina, where we've been campaigning hard and receiving an enthusiastic welcome."

Governor Perry's focus on South Carolina is more than rhetoric, they appear to be staking their entire campaign on the Palmetto State after finishing last in the Iowa caucus, when he announced he was "reassessing" his campaign.

He's currently winning less than 1% of the vote in New  Hampshire.

Mr. Perry is hardly the only candidate whose fortunes seem to be wed to the South Carolina primary. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich, who are still competing for fourth place in the Granite State, are also hoping the more conservative state delivers them a big win. South Carolina votes on January 21st.

Mitt Romney's New Hampshire Vacation. (Dale Stephanos)

At the time of this writing, the results of the New Hampshire primary and the Republican nominating contest are officially in doubt. At the time of this writing, the results of the Republican nominating contest, and to a lesser degree, the New Hampshire primary, couldn’t be more certain.

They weren’t decided Tuesday night; they weren’t decided in Iowa, and they won’t be decided in South Carolina in two weeks. The great secret of presidential campaigns is that despite two years of a carnivalesque drama, fluctuating poll numbers and maybe even a primary-night victory or two, it is pretty easy to tell who the winner will be once the field is set.

Did you really think Howard Dean would carry the Democratic line in 2004, even as he led all polls for most of the run-up to the voting? Did you really think Rudy Giuliani would be the Republican candidate in 2008, even as he opened up double-digit leads in state and national polls? Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter are anomalies; on the Republican side, the exceptions are nonexistent. The also-rans—the ones whose turn it isn’t—run for one of two reasons: either they hope to finish in second place, in order to the next guy in line the next time around, or they are running To Prove a Point—that America is about to be taken over by Mexicans, or that moral decay is imminent. Or, this time around at least, they run to raise their profile, make some money off of book sales, get a gig on Fox News. (Has Herman Cain ever made a business move that paid off as much as his aborted attempt to become the Leader of the Free World?)

But gamely they soldier on.

On an autumnal Saturday in Amherst, N.H., Rick Santorum made a quick stop in a mobbed country store on the side of the road. He had skipped an earlier stop at a town nearby when, it was rumored, a bunch of protesters from the Occupy Movement had camped out nearby. After his surprising second-place showing in Iowa four days before, Mr. Santorum, despite having only six years ago lost re-election to the U.S. Senate by a whopping 18 points and having turned into an Internet laughingstock, had become the It Candidate of the field, and hundreds people gathered around a picnic table overlooking a lake to hear his spiel.

Among them was Susan Hutchings, an Occupy protester, who had taken off her knit “Occupy” hat and was disguising herself as a regular, undecided voter in the hopes of asking a question.

“It’s like every four years the circus comes to town. Rich white men come to talk about things that don’t make any sense and then one of them declares himself the ruler of the country for the next four years,” she said.

She is certainly right about one thing: New Hampshire, in the days leading up to the primary, is, in H.L. Mencken’s phrase, better than the best circus ever heard of, with a mass baptism and a couple of hangings thrown in. The flinty streets of the Granite State are overrun with PETA protesters in pink piglet costumes; Occupy supporters blowing trombones (“Which side are you on, Which side are you on” they sing as they march in formation down the street, leading one tweedy Republican to sing back, “The other side, the other side”), dreadlocked Ron Paulites determined to make their case every time a rival candidate gets set to speak, where, naturally, they get shouted down by the other candidate’s supporters. (At the Radisson in Nashua, as the “Mitt! Mitt! Mitt!” chants drowned out the “Paul! Paul! Paul!” ones, a leader of the Paulites threw his hands up in mock resignation, “O.K., your chants are louder than ours! I guess we will just all go home now.”) Reporters seem to outnumber residents, and after campaign events there is a mad dash to get reaction from the regular folks (“Sir! Excuse me! Are you from New Hampshire? No? Can you point me to someone who is?”).

Ru-Paul was there this weekend, holding in court in a Manchester diner to explain how she was tired of being confused with Ron Paul. Carl Paladino, the baseball-bat wielding former New York gubernatorial candidate most famous for sending around emails containing bestiality videos and pictures of Barack and Michelle Obama dressed as a pimp and prostitute, was there too, stumping for Newt Gingrich. It is perhaps the only place in America where one can overhear a high school bragging to his friends, “Oh, my god! I just saw Nikki Haley!”

But if it is a circus, it is a somewhat more muted one this time around, a carnival on the last legs of its tour, the trapeze artists looking a little wobbly up there and the bearded lady shorn down to a stubble. Although the end result of the primary season may be preordained, there are at least usually a couple of candidates who pass the smell test, who could plausibly pass for occupants of the Oval Office. This time around, polls never showed Mitt Romney with less than a double-digit lead.

At any moment, reporters were on the lookout for a candidate ready to “surge”—to say something particularly biting at a debate or to jump on an opponent’s gaffe—but the race was really for second place, or maybe even third among Mr. Santorum, Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich. Rick Perry, who, back before he started speaking, did actually seem like a legitimate opponent to Mr. Romney, all but abandoned New Hampshire for the Palmetto State. Reporters from national outlets had done the same, convincing assignment editors that South Carolina would be where the real action was, where the right wing of the party would make its final stand against Mr. Romney (and the facts that in South Carolina the weather was nicer, the politics dirtier, the girls supposedly prettier and the booze flowed freer helped them make the case more persuasively).

Down by the lake, Ms. Hutchings said that she had come to New Hampshire and to Mr. Santorum’s impromptu speech for a little “bird-dogging.”

She took out a piece of paper and read from it.

“The term bird-dog comes from hunting. The bird-dog’s job is to flush out the bird. Politicians are birds who try to keep their positions hidden behind vague rhetoric.”

She flipped the paper over and recited her script a couple of times. It contained a question about Scandinavia and longitudinal studies and paid family leave.

“And I’m guessing he’ll say, ‘No,’ because that’s socialist or whatever, and he’s an asshole.”

On the stump, Mr. Santorum comes across something like an 11-year-old whose buddies have just discovered his parents’ liquor cabinet. He doesn’t so much inspire as he pleads, trying to guilt-trip New Hampshirites into doing the right thing.

“I really do hope that the people of this state will do what is right, what is necessary,” he said, his voice rising up a notch or two as if trying to bore its way into the conscious of its audience. “People in this state are as involved in politics as any state in the country. That is why I have always defended New Hampshire as the first in the nation primary. You take this primary seriously, you step up and you lead when your country needs you.”

The night before, Mr. Santorum appeared at the Hillsborough County Republican Committee gala in the southern corner of the state. This was Republican red-meat territory. At the invocation at the start of the evening, a woman from the New Hampshire Federation of Republican Women bowed her head, paid homage to “Our Gracious Heavenly Father, Creator and Sovereign Over All … I pray for President Obama, that You would turn his heart to fear Your name.” (Afterward, The Observer asked her if God did turn President Obama’s heart around, if she would support him. She looked generally perplexed at this theological conundrum. “Hmmm. If God did turn his heart? I would have to see some proof. I still want a Republican who is a true conservative in office.”)

Newt Gingrich was there and tore into Mr. Romney for not knowing what he thinks, and for raising taxes while he was governor of Massachusetts, including, he said a tax on people merely for being visually impaired. “A tax on people who are blind. I know they were scraping the bottom of the barrel, but really.” Rand Paul was there too, in his capacity as an increasingly bored surrogate for his father. (“Now everybody is going to be quiet, right, so you can hear my speech, right? It’s tough to give a speech twice in one night so I’m going to keep this one really short.”)

In the hallways, talk turned to what was most to dislike about President Obama—“I think it’s preserving our Constitutional liberties that is more important.” “I think we have to do something about these regulations that are strangling business.” One of Jon Huntsman’s daughters attracted the attentions of television cameras. A stand sold conservative pins with slogans like “That’s Not an Angry Mob—That’s My Mother.”

Outside by the doorway, Robert Stacey McCain, a conservative activist and blogger, who seems every bit like a chain-smoking Southern-drawling operative out of All the King’s Men tipped back his suede hat and panted over the Huntsman daughter.

“Did you see her? Oh, god! Oh, my god! Wow. It’s because I’m old and harmless now she’ll talk to me. If I had been out on the hunt she would have spotted me for a dangerous character right away.”

He caught himself and explained how this was the right’s last chance to stick it to mainstream Wall Street Republicans and maybe derail the Romney train.

“What were we talking about? Oh, yeah, social conservatism. Anyway, if Santorum overperforms, Romney underperforms … if Santorum, as far outside the norm as he is, does well here, and then you get 11 days and go down to South Carolina and if he does well in South Carolina—no, if he wins South Carolina, if he wins South Carolina—and South Carolina is the nut-cutter.

“They are all imperfect, but all of my conservative friends agree that Romney is the worst RINO in all of RINO-dom. He is the anti-Christ or something. But you know, four years ago, Romney was our guy! He was the one that was going to stop McCain! So how he became completely unacceptable, I don’t know. It’s his turn. That’s the way the Republican Party rolls, but everybody is trying to stop the Republican establishment. You know, all conservatives hate the god-damn establishment. That’s just the way it is.”

Mr. Romney seems unable to know what to do with all of this sentiment. His rallies in New Hampshire were genuine events, with hundreds of people lining up to hear him speak (although New Hampshirites may be the only people in the union who will take time out of their day to attend a rally, stand up and cheer there, grab a lawn sign on the way out and then tell you they are still undecided).

He knows how to throw the aforementioned red meat on the grill—“What frightens me today is that we have a president I don’t think who understands the nature of America”—but will quickly catch himself, and say that he doesn’t think the president is such a bad guy. He likes to turn the microphone over to his wife, Ann, who plays the part of a saucy wench so sharped-tongued that parents should keep their children close at hand.

“It’s a dangerous thing to give me a microphone. You never know what I am going to say,” she told thousands of supporters at a rally at a high school gym in Exeter, and then invariably, she will say something about when before the 2012 campaign she asked her husband, “‘Mitt, can you save America?’ And he said, ‘Yes.’”

And the cornerstone of Mr. Romney’s campaign to save America seems to be keeping it from becoming Europe. In his speeches he rails against the Continent as a place of low-earning and lazy ne’er-do-well Socialists.

“I don’t want America to become more like Europe. I want America to become more like America,” he told one rally.

There are plenty of Europeans in New Hampshire for the spectacle, and luckily for future relations, they don’t seem to mind that much.

“We even heard Mitt Romney say that the average European has only 50 percent of the income of the average American people,” said Frits Huffnagel, a Danish public relations executive. He patted The Observer’s shoulder. “But don’t feel pity on us. It’s not true.”

As the voting began, the circus seemed to have moved on. Mr. Santorum had spent most of his time recently in South Carolina. Mr. Perry was off the stage completely. Mr. Gingrich had toned down the language on Mr. Romney and was back to giving long-winded lectures about weapons systems.

“I just can’t take any more!” one reporter assigned to cover the former speaker said to her colleagues after yet another Gingrich stem winder. Mr. Paul’s supporters were everywhere, but not so much Mr. Paul. Mr. Huntsman was enjoying a bit of the spotlight, but his candidacy would likely collapse even if he somehow eked past Mr. Paul.

Mr. Romney had the most volunteers in the state, but they too were a relatively muted crew. During Saturday’s debate, the campaign headquarters in Manchester locked the door against all press and outsiders and hosted a debate-watching party for a few dozen supporters. They snacked on popcorn chicken and Dum-dum lollipops but mostly fought off drowsiness as the candidates refrained from attacking one another. The only time they got energized was when Mr. Huntsman said that a typical Saturday night for him meant speaking with his sons who were serving overseas in the military. “Boo!” the Romneyites yelled. “Pander!”

Even the protesters couldn’t quite summon the energy.

Ms. Hutchings, the Occupy protester bird-dogging Mr. Santorum at the lake, did eventually get called on. But before the light of the TV cameras and few hundred Republicans, she lost her nerve, and could only meekly offer up a question about what he intended to do about jobs, which Mr. Santorum brushed off with vague rhetoric.

Disappointed, Ms. Hutchings gathered a half-dozen of her fellow Occupiers and chased after a confused Mr. Santorum chanting, “Occupy Wall Street! Occupy Wall Street!” Reporters stopped her to find out if she was from New Hampshire and what she thought of the candidates.

“Don’t you see?” she implored. “It’s all a charade!”

dfreedlander@observer.com

Rick Perry (Getty)

Moderator George Stephanopoulos ended tonight's Republican presidential debate in New Hampshire by asking the candidate's what they'd be doing tonight if they "weren't here running for president." Rick Perry didn't hesitate before giving his answer.

"I'd probably be at the shooting range," Mr. Perry said.

Mr. Perry spent some time last Friday at an Austin-area shooting range "relaxing" ahead of the debate.

The other candidates also discussed what they'd be doing this evening if they weren't on the campaign trail.

Newt Gingrich was a little confused about his ideal weekend plans.

"I'd be watching the college championship basketball game," Mr. Gingrich said.

"Football game," Mr. Stephanopoulos corrected.

"I mean football game, thank you," Mr. Gingrich said.

Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum said they'd also be watching the football championship. The candidates might not have to miss the BCS championship game after all, since it's scheduled for Monday evening rather than tonight.

Ron Paul stayed on messaged and used Mr. Stephanopoulos' question as an opportunity to burnish his reputation as a great economic mind.

"I'd be home with my family, but if they all went to bed, I'd probably read an economic textbook," Mr. Paul said to laughs from his Republican rivals.

Jon Huntsman ended the debate on a more serious note.

"I'd be on the phone with my two boys in the United States Navy, because they're a constant reminder of what is great about this nation and awesome about the emerging generation in this country," Mr. Huntsman said.

Steve Forbes (Getty)

Millionaire and former Republican candidate Steve Forbes thinks a vote for Ron Paul or Rick Santorum in Iowa is really a vote for Mitt Romney--and he doesn't like that one bit. Mr. Forbes sent an email on behalf of Rick Perry's campaign today imploring voters to unite behind the Texas governor to defeat the Romney menace. "Let me be blunt, facing Paul and/or Santorum would be a dream come true for the Romney high command," Mr. Forbes wrote.

Mr. Forbes said "it is clear that Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum will be the top four finishers in the [Iowa] Caucuses"--and the thought terrifies him.

"I'm afraid that the results from the Iowa Caucuses in less than two days will still show Conservatives fractured in their support, leaving a huge opening for Mitt Romney to become our party's nominee," Mr. Forbes wrote.

According to Mr. Forbes, it's "absolutely impossible" for Mr. Paul to defeat Mr. Romney for the nomination because "Romney's campaign will focus on certain of Paul's past positions and his strange willingness to allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons." Mr. Forbes thinks Mr. Santorum "has only begun to get vetted by the national media and his opponents" because of his late surge. Once Mr. Santorum does face press scrutiny, Mr. Forbes thinks certain skeletons in his closet will ensure his doom.

"He will be constantly forced to defend his inexcusable addiction to earmarks including projects like the 'Bridge to Nowhere,'" Mr. Forbes wrote of Mr. Santorum. "And no one has yet to scratch the surface on his unqualified support and endorsement of the liberal, pro-abortion former Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter over true conservative Pat Toomey in the 2004 GOP primary for U.S. Senate."

Conventional wisdom in this year's presidential campaign is that dissatisfaction with Mr. Romney among the Republican electorate has fueled a series of surges among his rivals. Governor Perry, Mr. Paul and Mr. Santorum are all competing for this anti-Romney bloc. In his letter, Mr. Forbes attempted to remind these voters that Governor Perry is the only one who can compete with Mr. Romney when it comes to the almighty dollar.

"But as important as his record, beliefs and proposals is that Rick Perry has proven he can raise the money necessary to compete with Romney," Mr. Forbes wrote.

Governor Perry and Mr. Romney have led the pack in terms of fundraising.

Mr. Forbes endorsed Governor Perry in October. Since then, Mr. Forbes has made speeches supporting Governor Perry on the campaign trail where he hasn't been shy about his distaste for Mr. Romney.

Read Mr. Forbes' entire email below.

Dear Friend & Supporter,

There is no question that all Conservatives are united in their unwavering goal of defeating Barack Obama this November.  The problem has been that Conservatives haven't been united on who the best candidate to defeat Obama might be.

I'm afraid that the results from the Iowa Caucuses in less than two days will still show Conservatives fractured in their support, leaving a huge opening for Mitt Romney to become our party's nominee.

While I'm not sure of the order in which they will finish on Tuesday night, based on what I've seen it is clear that Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum will be the top four finishers in the Caucuses.

And let me be blunt, facing Paul and/or Santorum would be a dream come true for the Romney high command.

We all know that Ron Paul can't stop Mitt Romney.  Romney's campaign will focus on certain of Paul's past positions and his strange willingness to allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons. All this makes a Paul victory absolutely impossible.

And while Rick Santorum is the latest in a long line of candidates to get a temporary surge, he has only begun to get vetted by the national media and his opponents.  He will be constantly forced to defend his inexcusable addiction to earmarks including projects like the "Bridge to Nowhere". And no one has yet to scratch the surface on his unqualified support and endorsement of the liberal, pro-abortion former Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter over true conservative Pat Toomey in the 2004 GOP primary for U.S. Senate.  Santorum’s support for Specter enabled Specter to win a narrow victory, by a bare 20,000 votes.  Specter then provided the critical, 60th vote for the passage of Obamacare and Obama’s budget busting, Economic Stimulus package, which is ballooning our national debt. Please ponder this: if Specter had been defeated we never would have had Obamacare.

Bottom line — There is only ONE consistent conservative that can go toe to toe with Romney and win the nomination — Rick Perry.

We all know that Rick is a consistent conservative and Washington outsider — a man of faith who isn't afraid to stand up to the liberal establishment to protect our values.  I've supported him all along because of his outstanding decade- long record and bold positions: creating more than a million new jobs in Texas; his plan to establish a 20% flat tax to do away with the IRS as we know it; and his plan to overhaul Washington by cutting Congress' pay and sending them home.  This is the type of leadership we desperately need to reverse the Obama deficit-spending fueled recession.

But as important as his record, beliefs and proposals is that Rick Perry has proven he can raise the money necessary to compete with Romney.  He already has an impressive war chest. And he has the necessary national organization for a long campaign.

If we as Conservatives don't want a repeat of 2008, and are serious about nominating a true Conservative as our nominee, then the time is upon us to unite behind the VIABLE Conservative, the CONSISTENT Conservative — Rick Perry.

Steve

Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul. (Photos: Getty)

In the final day of campaigning before the Iowa Caucus tomorrow, Mitt Romney compared President Barack Obama to the Kardashians, Michele Bachmann invoked Margaret Thatcher, Newt Gingrich lamented his fall from the front of the pack and Ron Paul plotted a path to the White House. Mr. Romney is currently leading in the latest Iowa polls followed by Mr. Paul. Mr. Santorum is ever so slightly ahead of Mr. Gingrich in third place.

At the moment, Mr. Romney is sitting pretty now that he's cemented his lead in Iowa and is ahead by a wide margin in the next primary state, New Hampshire. At an event in Iowa yesterday, Mr. Romney took a shot at President Obama by comparing campaign promises the Commander in Chief made in Iowa during the last election cycle to Kim Kardashian's brief, headline happy marriage to NBA star Kris Humphries.

"You know, I’ve been looking at some video clips on YouTube, of President Obama, then candidate Obama, going through Iowa making promises,” Mr. Romney said. “The gap between his promises and his performance is the largest I’ve seen since, well, the Kardashian wedding and the promise of ‘till death do us part.’ "

Mr. Paul was conspicuously absent from Iowa this weekend, but his advisors say they're confident thanks to large grassroots organizing effort on the ground there and the improbable rise in the polls that has him within sight of a win. Regardless of what happens in Iowa tomorrow, Mr. Paul apparently hopes to capitalize on his momentum, organization and his legions of enthusiastic young supporters to pick up a coalition of local Republican delegates and remain in the race up until the Republican convention in Tampa in August.

If record sales are any indication, Mr. Paul does seem poised to make an impact. Pop singer Kelly Clarkson experienced a bump in downloads of her most recent album after she made a controversial endorsement of Mr. Paul on Twitter.

Mr. Santorum has ridden a boost of his own into third place. In an appearance on Des Moines sports radio station KXNO, he attempted to win over more voters by saying he understands peoples who are frustrated with the tax system because he does his own taxes and has trouble keeping the paperwork straight.

"Every year when I do them, I always get a little note from the government, 'You screwed this up, you messed this up,' you know you didn't do this or that,'" Mr. Santorum said.

Mr. Gingrich, who was polling ahead of his rivals once upon a time about two weeks ago, is not pleased to find himself in fourth. At a recent campaign stop, Mr. Gingrich blamed his slide on the millions of dollars Mr. Romney spent on ads in Iowa.

"I’ve been Romney-boated," Mr. Gingrich said, referencing the 2004 "Swift Boat" ads that torpedoed the presidential campaign of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry.

With bleak prospects in Iowa, Mr. Gingrich is already looking forward to South Carolina where he has a commanding lead in the polls.

Mr. Perry was also munching on sour grapes as he savored position at the back of the caucus pack with Ms. Bachmann and Jon Huntsman. In a Fox News interview today, Mr. Perry criticized Mr. Santorum and Ms. Bachmann as unprepared to mount successful White House campaigns.

"Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann don’t have a national organization in place nor the fundraising ability to go forward out of Iowa, and so I’m the only one that actually has that ability," Mr. Perry said.

Mr. Perry, Mr. Santorum and Ms. Bachmann are all hoping to woo conservative, evangelical voters who are dissatisfied with Mr. Romney.

Ms. Bachmann, a native Iowan, focused much of her early efforts on the Hawkeye State and won the Iowa Straw Poll in August. In spite of that focus, Ms. Bachmann has failed to draw crowds in Iowa and is fighting to avoid a last place finish that many observers expect would knock her out of the race. Hoping to pull off a "miracle" win, Ms. Bachmann released a new TV ad to air in Iowa that highlights her hometown roots and dubs her "America's 'Iron Lady,'" a red, white and blue version of Margaret Thatcher.

Jon Huntsman has largely ignored the Iowa Caucus to focus on pulling off a strong finish in New Hampshire. He spent the weekend pushing supporters to help him pay to get an anti-Romney ad on the air in the Granite State, however it seems his efforts may actually be helping Mr. Romney stay ahead. Mr. Huntsman is currently in fourth place in New Hampshire behind Mr. Romney, Mr. Paul and Mr. Gingrich.

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Rick Perry (Getty)

At the Fox News presidential primary debate tonight, Texas Governor Rick Perry revealed he wants to take a page from the playbook of Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow and turn his campaign into an underdog success story.

"There are a lot of people out there--I understand it, you know, there are a lot of folks that said Tim Tebow wasn't going to be a very good NFL quarterback," Governor Perry said. "Let me tell you, I hope I am the Tim Tebow of the Iowa caucuses."

In spite of his struggles with a traditional passing game, Mr. Tebow has become the center of the football universe thanks to his frequent public displays of religion and a win streak peppered with overtime victories that has turned around the Broncos' season.

Governor Perry's football metaphor came after he was asked to assure voters who doubt whether he could effectively debate President Barack Obama after his string of disastrous debate performances.

"I want to share something with you that, as each one of these debates, I'm kind of getting to where I like these debates," Governor Perry said. "As a matter of fact, I hope Obama and I debate a lot, and I'll get there early and we will get it on."

Governor Perry also reminded his doubters that Mr. Tebow's story proves seemingly impossible things can happen and tried to point out similarities between himself and the star athlete.

"There are a lot of people out there--I understand it, you know, there are a lot of folks that said Tim Tebow wasn't going to be a very good NFL quarterback. There are people that stood up and said, 'Well, he doesn't have the right throwing mechanisms,' or 'He doesn't, you know, he's not playing the game right.' He won two national [college] championships and that looked pretty good, we were the national champions of job creation back in Texas," Governor Perry said. "Am I ready for the next level? Let me tell you, I hope I am the Tim Tebow of the Iowa caucuses."

Governor Perry isn't the only one in his family who's turning to Mr. Tebow for inspiration. Last weekend, Governor Perry's son, Griffin, took to Twitter to fantasize about Mr. Tebow running alongside his father.