At the time of this writing, the results of the New Hampshire primary and the Republican nominating contest are officially in doubt. At the time of this writing, the results of the Republican nominating contest, and to a lesser degree, the New Hampshire primary, couldn’t be more certain.
They weren’t decided Tuesday night; they weren’t decided in Iowa, and they won’t be decided in South Carolina in two weeks. The great secret of presidential campaigns is that despite two years of a carnivalesque drama, fluctuating poll numbers and maybe even a primary-night victory or two, it is pretty easy to tell who the winner will be once the field is set.
Did you really think Howard Dean would carry the Democratic line in 2004, even as he led all polls for most of the run-up to the voting? Did you really think Rudy Giuliani would be the Republican candidate in 2008, even as he opened up double-digit leads in state and national polls? Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter are anomalies; on the Republican side, the exceptions are nonexistent. The also-rans—the ones whose turn it isn’t—run for one of two reasons: either they hope to finish in second place, in order to the next guy in line the next time around, or they are running To Prove a Point—that America is about to be taken over by Mexicans, or that moral decay is imminent. Or, this time around at least, they run to raise their profile, make some money off of book sales, get a gig on Fox News. (Has Herman Cain ever made a business move that paid off as much as his aborted attempt to become the Leader of the Free World?)
But gamely they soldier on.
President Obama’s final delegate slate for New York has been determined. Here’s the list.
Follow the results here.
Nate Silver gives Mitt Romney a 99% of winning New Hampshire.
Some narratives to watch coming out of New Hampshire.
In an appearance on Sean Hannity’s show tonight, Newt Gingrich described Occupy Wall Street as a threat to free speech while discussing being interrupted by protesters on the campaign trail. Mr. Gingrich canceled a scheduled appearance in New Hampshire today due to concerns over the protesters.
“Some of the Occupy Wall Street people frankly have a touch of anarchism in them. I think, ultimately, the society’s going to have to say there are limits to those kind of folks blocking people from having their right to free speech,” Mr. Gingrich said. “We decided it wasn’t worth risking some kind of big confrontation, so we, frankly, decided to skip past that particular event.”
At a campaign stop this afternoon in Derry, New Hampshire, a reporter asked Rick Santorum about an event eight days ago where he was quoted singling out blacks as recipients of federal welfare benefits. In New Hampshire today, Mr. Santorum denied making the remark and said he has a proven record of standing up for the African American community.
“I didn’t say the word ‘black,’ I got my tongue tied,” Mr. Santorum said. “I’ve done more in–done more in working in the African American community as a Republican than any Republican in recent memory.”
Hug It Out
Real estate developer and 2010 Republican candidate for governor Carl Paladino is on the campaign trail in New Hampshire this week in support of Newt Gingrich. Mr. Paladino spoke to The Politicker from his hotel room in Manchester last night to get his take on the primaries and his thoughts on state leadership in Albany.Though he has no official role with the Gingrich campaign, Mr. Paladino vowed to deliver New York for his candidate, who he described as “anti-establishment” and the most “huggable” in the GOP field.
On The Trail
EXETER, NH–Chris Christie was just getting going.
Before an energetic crowd at a high school gymnasium, he described President Barack Obama as “ the most pessimistic man I have ever seen in the Oval Office.”
“When you listen to the man, he sounds angry. I have a suggestion for the president: He doesn’t do angry well,” Mr. Christie added. “He understands that the American people are angry and they’re scared and they’re worried about the future. So he’s decided, in the most cynical reelection strategy that you could ever think of, that he doesn’t care if you’re angry, he just wants you to be angry at somebody else.”
Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich dueled over super PAC ads during the Republican presidential debate in New Hampshire this morning. Both men refused to take responsibility for the commercials, but expressed support for the content of the ads.
Mr. Gingrich challenged Mr. Romney to take ownership of anti-Gingrich ads that ran in Iowa created by a political action committee called Restore Our Future, which is overseen by Mr. Romney’s 2008 political director, Carl Forti, his former general counsel, Charles R. Spies and one of his media staffers, Larry McCarthy.
“Governor, I wish you would calmly and directly state it is your former staff running the PAC. It is your millionaire friends giving to the PAC. And you know some of the ads are in– are untrue. Just say that, straightforward,” Mr. Gingrich said.
Mitt Romney took some hits early on in this morning’s Republican presidential debate this morning in Concord, New Hampshire. Taking the stage just ten hours after their last debate Saturday night, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum tag teamed Mr. Romney characterizing him as a career politician with several failed campaigns and a moderate record.
“What Republicans have to ask is who’s most likely, in the long run, to survive against the kind of billion dollar campaign the Obama team is gonna run?” Mr. Gingrich asked. “And I think that a bold Reagan conservative with a very strong economic plan is a lot more likely to succeed in that campaign than a relatively timid Massachusetts moderate who even The Wall Street Journal said had an economic plan so timid it resembled Obama.”
During last night’s Republican presidential debate, Ron Paul said the firestorm over the controversial racial statements in his early 1990′s newsletters distracts from the real issues around race in this country.
He also invoked Martin Luther King and Rosa Parks while arguing he’s really the best candidate for African Americans.
“Concentrating on something that was written twenty years ago that I didn’t write, you know, is diverting the attention from most of the important issues,” Mr. Paul said. “More importantly, you ought to ask me what my relationship is for racial relationships, and one of my heroes is Martin Luther King, because he practiced the libertarian principle of peaceful resistance and peaceful civil disobedience, as did Rosa Parks did. But also, I’m the only one up here and the only one in the Democratic party that understands true racism in this country’s in the juficial system.”
Wedding Bell Blues
If Rick Santorum becomes President, he plans to pass a federal Constitutional amendment banning gay marriages that would invalidate marriage licenses that have been issued to couples in the states where same sex weddings are currently legal. Mr. Santorum outlined his position on gay marriage during the Republican presidential debate tonight in Manchester, New Hampshire.
“I believe the issue of marriage itself is a federal issue, that we can’t have different laws with respect to marriage, we have to have one law,” Mr. Santorum said. “Marriage is … a foundational institution of our country and we have to have a singular law with respect to that, we can’t have somebody married in one state and not married in another.”