by the numbers

Nate Silver (Photo: Wikimedia)

Obama Campaign Reminds Supporters Nate Silver Wasn’t Always Right

During the waning weeks of the election, New York Times poll wonk Nate Silver served as a totem for many liberals in the face of pundits and pollsters who predicted a victory for Mitt Romney. Mr. Silver’s predictions for the outcome of the election ended up being accurate; however, in an email to supporters this morning, Obama For America campaign manager Jim Messina included a not-so-subtle reminder of a time Mr. Silver was off the mark.

“So many times in this election, this campaign was counted out … Last year, a major American newspaper asked, ‘Is Obama toast?’ As recently as two weeks ago, another ran this headline: ‘Can Obama win?’” Mr. Messina wrote. “Tuesday night, you all answered all of those doubts with a resounding YES WE CAN.”

The first headline Mr. Messina referred to in his email was a piece from the New York Times Magazine written by Mr. Silver almost exactly one year ago. In that piece, Mr. Silver speculated President Barack Obama might not win re-election because voters had “fundamental misgivings” about him and the state of the American economy. Read More

Beef

President Obama (Getty)

President Obama Takes On Nate Silver

The Obama campaign doesn’t want you listening to Nate Silver. In an email sent out earlier this afternoon, campaign manager Jim Messina urged voters to disregard the statistical guru’s article in this past weekend’s New York Times Magazine, which gives President Obama slim chances of retaking the White House.  Read More

ny-26

Nate Silver Cautions Against Reading Too Much Into NY-26

Stats guru Nate Silver has some cold water for Democrats who think a win in the special election in western New York heralds new momentum for 2012:

[A]s we saw in a couple of special elections in 2009, districts in upstate New York, like this one, are among the quirkiest in the country, not least because they are among the few places where moderate Republicans still exist in large numbers. Read More