Grace Meng and Michael Grimm (Photo: Meng Campaign/Getty)

New York State started off as a key battleground in the Democrats' battle to retake control of the U.S. House, especially after the courts intervened in the redistricting plan and shook up a lot of traditional boundaries. However, most of these races were focused in areas further Upstate and the suburbs, leaving the heavily Democratic New York City with just two congressional elections of note.

In Queens, Democratic Assemblywoman Grace Meng faced off against GOP Councilman Dan Halloran for a seat crafted from the district remnants of outgoing Congressmen Bob Turner and Gary Ackerman. Despite Mr. Halloran's polling showing the race a tie, those numbers did not pan out and Ms. Meng is currently ahead by roughly 2-to-1, which matches how Democrats have historically performed within the area.

In a more hotly contested race spanning Staten Island and southern Brooklyn, Republican Congressman Michael Grimm successfully defeated Democrat Mark Murphy, according to multiple projections. Democrats were initially hopeful that a barrage of bad headlines, notably an FBI investigation into Mr. Grimm's fundraising during his 2010 congressional campaign, would shift things in their favor. However, Mr. Grimm was an energetic legislator and an aggressive campaigner, resulting in an electorate apparently unwilling to indict him based on headlines alone.

Elsewhere in the state, endangered Democrats Tim Bishop and Bill Owens have both won as well, but Rep. Kathy Hochul, occupying staunchly conservative territory in Western New York, is narrowly trailing GOP challenger Chris Collins. In the Hudson Valley, Republican Congressman Chris Gibson has a modest lead over Julian Schreibman, while Mr. Gibson's GOP colleague, Nan Hayworth, is currently trailing her Democratic challenger Sean Patrick Maloney. Seats in Rochester and Syracuse have already been called for Democrats Louise Slaughter and Dan Maffei respectively, with Mr. Maffei's being a pickup for his party.

Congressman Grimm standing alone at the Dyker Heights debate.

Last Friday night, all of the candidates for local office gathered for the Richmond County American Legion Political Forum. “The candidates were contacted by letter in August, and follow-up e-mails were sent in September and early October to each, asking for confirmation of attendance," Ted Cohen, an organizer of the event, explained in an email. "Positive responses were received from almost every candidate. There was one notable exception."

Mark Murphy, the Democratic candidate against freshman GOP Rep. Michael Grimm, did not attend. "I find it a bit disturbing that a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives would ignore an invitation from an important Veterans organization in his district," Mr. Cohen continued in the letter, which can be found in full below.

Although Mr. Cohen has been publicly friendly to Mr. Grimm in the past, his point is further emphasized by other events. At a recent Dyker Heights debate, Mr. Murphy was again the only candidate for local office not in attendance, leaving Mr. Grimm  standing next to an empty chair. Mr. Grimm was also alone at the Bay Ridge Real Estate Board's candidates forum, and while neither candidate attended the Arab American Civic Association's forum, Mr. Murphy had told the group he would be there.

It's difficult to run for Congress, especially against an incumbent. Candidates in such situations typically make every effort to attend these sorts of events in order to boost their name recognition and presence in the community. Asked about his absences, Mr. Murphy's campaign spokesman Nathan Smith pointed towards today's New York Times' endorsement editorial and said the Democratic contender was doing just fine.

"The New York Times agrees, in their endorsement this morning, that Mark is running a dynamic campaign and is exactly the reform candidate that Staten Island and Brooklyn deserve," he contended in a statement. "Mark has personally delivered his pro-middle class message to countless voters, and he will participate in three upcoming debates, two of which will be on television. Mark has been a visible and vocal candidate with a vigorous schedule of community meetings, forums, door-knocking, fundraisers, press interviews and voter contact. He cannot attend every meeting, but his campaign talks to thousands of voters every day, and his support is growing."

To illustrate this point, Mr. Murphy's campaign also provided a list of his activities in the last two weeks:

-Visited a dozen transportation hubs (express bus and train stations and ferry terminal) between 6:30 and 9 a.m.
campaigned with Hakeem Jeffries (this past weekend: two churches/two housing complexes)
-Walked door-to-door 8 nights in the district (Staten Island and Brooklyn)
-Held 6 fundraisers
-Met voters at 4 supermarkets on the weekends
-Made numerous calls to undecided voters in between his fundraisers and voter engagement efforts
-Attended dozens of weekend voter-contact events (cultural fests, churches, and street fairs)
-Spoken to hundreds of his volunteers at events at Staten Island and Brooklyn headquarters
-Prepared for three upcoming debates with Michael Grimm (two will be on TV)
-Attended the Marlboro Houses Tenants Association Meeting
-Attended Arab Muslim American Federation Meeting
-Met with Brooklyn Democratic district and party leaders
-Met with Staten Island Democratic leaders

On the other hand, here is the discontented Mr. Cohen's email:

Subject: Richmond County American Legion Political Forum

The Political Forum sponsored by the American Legion of Richmond County was held on Friday, October 19th, at 7:00 PM at the Kells-Grennie Post on Amboy Road.

All declared candidates for every political office in Richmond County were invited to speak at the forum, which is held every two years.

The event was coordinated by our very able Mr. Lester Modelowitz, who expended a great deal of effort to make the evening informative and enjoyable. As always, he did a superb job.

The candidates were contacted by letter in August, and follow-up e-mails were sent in September and early October to each, asking for confirmation of attendance. Positive responses were received from almost every candidate. There was one notable exception which will be discussed below.

Each candidate was informed that he/she would have 6 minutes to speak, and no questions from the audience would be permitted. The topics were: key positions in the candidate's platform, and specific opinions on Veteran issues ( education, housing, support of troops, VA health care, Veterans' tax exemptions, war monuments, etc.).

The forum was very well attended by Legion members and the candidates' comments were extensive, varied, helpful, and sincerely appreciated.

Sadly, Mr. Mark Murphy did not respond to the several contacts we made, and he did not show up. Had he decided to attend, even at the last moment, he would have been able to speak to the group.

I find it a bit disturbing that a candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives would ignore an invitation from an important Veterans organization in his district. Mr. Murphy did not even give the Richmond County American Legion the courtesy of a response in order to decline our invitation.

Conversely, Congressman Grimm, the incumbent, perhaps facing less of an up uphill struggle than Mr. Murphy, did indeed address the group.

I'm sure all of the candidates for the various offices had multiple commitments and scheduling challenges. Nevertheless, the various contenders for State Senate and State Assembly chose to honor us with their presence, as did Congressman Grimm.

I felt it was important to advise you of the facts, and trust you will report same to your readers. I'm sure the general public would be interested in a potential Congressman's slight of war Veterans in our district.

As word is passed throughout the Veteran community on Staten Island, I believe Mr. Murphy will receive little support from our members.

Thank you for your attention.

Ted Cohen
Captain, USAF Retired
Watkins-Kellett American Legion Post #277

(Photo: YouTube)

GOP Congressman Michael Grimm has faced a barrage of bad headlines since the start of this year, most recently an article in today's New York Times with the word "mob ties" in the title. These headlines have been further amplified by his Democratic opponent, Mark Murphy, bombarding Mr. Grimm on the airwaves and implying the incumbent is a crook. Well, Mayor Rudy Giuliani--possibly buoyed by the boat the congressman is trying to name after him--has come to the rescue.

"Hi, I'm Rudy Giuliani," the former mayor says directly to the camera in Mr. Grimm's latest television ad. "Don't be fooled by the shameful attacks in the media, Michael Grimm's character and integrity are second to none. Michael Grimm is a great congressman and an outstanding representative for Staten Island and Brooklyn."

Attacking the media is a common tactic of Mr. Grimm's when faced with criticism, so it's unsurprising Mr. Giuliani would echo that position. In the campaign commercial, he also praises the congressman's status as one of the most legislatively productive freshmen in the U.S. House.

"Michael's record is remarkable for a first-term lawmaker," Mr. Giuliani continued. "And I'm proud to strongly support our congressman, Michael Grimm. So join me, Rudy Giuliani, in supporting Michael Grimm for Congress. An effective leader, whose record is as impressive as his lifetime of service."

Update: Mr. Murphy's campaign spokesman Dan Morris wasn't impressed with Mr. Giuliani parachuting in to help his Republican friend and issued the following statement: “Scandal-scarred Michael Grimm knows he has lost the support of many voters and is now seriously worried about losing the election. Surrogates like Rudy Giuliani and John Boehner do nothing to change the fact that Grimm is facing multiple federal investigations, and getting buried under an avalanche of unanswered questions about his shady associations with criminals and mobsters. Grimm will need to do a lot more than roll out TV ads to convince people he isn't crooked."

Watch below:

Peter Ward, President of the New York Hotel & Motel Trades Council, AFL-CIO. (Illustration by, Fred Harper)

The Hotel Trades Council, which has become one of the most influential unions in New York City politics thanks to their aggressive organizing efforts and willingness to back both Democrats and Republicans, dove into the five boroughs' most competitive congressional race this afternoon by endorsing Democrat Mark Murphy over incumbent GOP Rep. Michael Grimm.

“We’re all in. This is a priority race for us," Josh Gold, HTC's political director, explained in a statement. “We plan to do everything we can to elect Mark. He is someone who will stand up for all working men and women. He will fight hard for policies and legislation that will improve the lives of our members and help rebuild the middle class."

The union is the latest to make Mr. Murphy's electoral efforts a top priority, following a similar announcement from the RWDSU last week. Other Democratic-aligned unions have also endorsed Mr. Murphy, but HTC may be his first union backer with significant bipartisan tendencies.

Indeed, Mr. Grimm is no stranger to unions himself and has secured more labor endorsements than the typical congressional Republican. In fact, in all of New York State, the Staten Island representative had the only notable congressional race where the AFL-CIO outright declined to endorse the Democrat.

While the campaign arm of the House Democrats drew a giant target on Mr. Grimm's back, the general feeling among insiders is that Mr. Murphy has a decent amount of ground to catch up before voters head to the polls on November 6th. The last public survey of the race showed the incumbent leading by 10%.

Mark Murphy (Photo: Facebook)

Congressman Michael Grimm's Democratic opponent, Mark Murphy, is apparently enjoying the ongoing saga that's unfolding after an incident of vandalism occurred at Mr. Grimm's campaign office over the weekend. Mr. Grimm initially aggressively responded to the incident where windows were broken at his Staten Island headquarters by alleging acts of computer tampering and data theft also occurred and describing the situation as most likely "politically motivated." After it turned out that the vandal in question was only a mere eighth grader, Mr. Grimm admitted it may have been a volunteer for his campaign who mistakenly caused his technological troubles rather than someone with more nefarious intentions.

Nathan Smith, a spokesman for Mr. Murphy, responded to Mr. Grimm's admission he may have jumped to conclusions by releasing a strongly worded statement this evening criticizing the incumbent's handling of the situation.

“We commend the young man for coming forward," Mr. Smith said of the teenage perpetrator. "The wild accusations and apparently totally false conspiracy theories of the last 48 hours have made this bizarre situation a sad spectacle."

Mr. Smith, like most of Mr. Grimm's Democratic foes, pivoted to the federal investigation into the congressman's 2010 fundraising operations, where media reports allege he extorted hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from the congregation of an influential rabbi.

"It’s pretty clear at this point that Congressman Grimm is caving under the pressure of multiple ongoing investigations but hopefully he can now stop blaming the media, calling the NYPD liars, and start honestly answering the other criminal questions that have plagued him the last 2 months,” Mr. Smith claimed.

It's unlikely that Mr. Grimm has any interest in holding back on the media, however. In his long statement responding to the child's confession, the congressman attacked the press for "shameless media spin and speculation fueled by unscrupulous sources."

The damage. (Photo: Grimm campaign)

On Sunday, GOP Congressman Michael Grimm announced that pieces of cement were thrown through the window of his campaign headquarters on Staten Island. In addition to the smashed windows, Mr. Grimm and his campaign claimed hard drives in the office were erased and described the crime as "politically motivated" in a series of statements and an emergency press conference.

The campaign of Mr. Grimm's Democratic opponent Mark Murphy flatly condemned the act, but multiple Democratic insiders who have been following the race expressed skepticism of Mr. Grimm's story when offered the chance to give their private thoughts on the politically sensitive topic. For their part, Republicans we reached out to did not immediately leap at the opportunity to comment.

"The whole thing seems bizarre to a lot people," one Democrat wrote to Politicker. "Why would someone sneak into a campaign HQ and erase stuff while tipping them off you were there. It doesn't make any sense."

The Democrat also took issue with Mr. Grimm comparing the alleged attack on his office to the shooting of former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords that left six people dead and Mr. Grimm's labeling of the Staten Island incident as "an assault on democracy."

"Some moron throwing a brick threw a window in the middle of one the Island's busiest intersections just don't seem to add up to that level," he argued. "But, this whole situation is just really really weird. Not to mention the cops are now saying, 'Uh, yeah, its probably a drunken idiot not some grand political conspiracy.' I think it was a doofus throwing a brick after a few too many beers."

Along with the erasure of his hard drives and the smashed windows, Mr. Grimm told the Staten Island Advance the intruders installed the Linux operating system on the office's computers. The Democrat we talked to was highly dubious anyone would do this.

"Why are they breaking in to install a different operating system (that just may be my lack of understanding about what installing it does)?" he said.

Another Democrat we spoke to immediately dismissed the entire controversy and instead pivoted to the matter of the FBI investigation into Mr. Grimm's 2010 campaign operations.

"Grimm’s explanation of what happened over the weekend fits a pattern: he has trouble telling the truth, and tries to play the victim," he said. "On Ofer Biton and the campaign fundraising scandal, it’s the liberal media out to get him. Now it’s dangerous vandals assaulting him and his beloved democracy. His elaborate story about the break-in just doesn't hold together."

(Photo: YouTube)

On Friday morning, Mark Murphy, the Democratic challenger to Rep. Michael Grimm, unleashed his first television ad aiming to draw attention to some of the controversies surrounding the incumbent. "Murphy TV Ad Focuses on Grimm’s Character Flaws" the subject line of Mr. Murphy's press release read, for example. “With characters like these around him, we can’t help but wonder about Michael Grimm’s character," the ad itself declared after ticking off a list of "questionable characters."

While Mr. Grimm's campaign lashed out at Mr. Murphy at the time, it seems they were already readying a positive ad to boost his character as well. To wit, "Michael Grimm: Our Voice in Washington" quietly popped up on Mr. Grimm's YouTube channel on Friday, and this morning, his spokeswoman confirmed the ad has been airing in Staten Island and Brooklyn since last week.

Amid uplifting orchestral strums, a female narrator highlights Mr. Grimm's biography as a veteran and former FBI agent, in addition to his efforts to lower bridge tolls and fix the economy. Like his speech kicking off his campaign last week, Mr. Grimm's ad doesn't mention Mr. Murphy's name or really even acknowledge he has an opponent.

The congressional district the two candidates are vying to represent next year leans Republican, but Democrats hope that by going sharply negative on Mr. Grimm, they can tear away some voters who would otherwise be inclined to reelect him. Mr. Grimm, however, seems to be staying positive for the time being.

Watch both ads below:

Michael Grimm speaking before the crowd.

Earlier this afternoon, freshman Congressman Michael Grimm opened up his New Dorp campaign headquarters and formally began his reelection efforts in one of New York City's only competitive congressional districts. And standing before a packed crowd of a couple hundred supporters--including his adorable Yorkshire Terrier sporting campaign swag--the Republican incumbent was not short on grand rhetoric.

"I don't know what to say right now, I am blown away. I'm overwhelmed, look at the turnout on a hot day like this, it was raining before," Mr. Grimm began his speech, standing in front of what had once been a car dealership but was now his base of operations. "I can't believe that I'm standing here today to talk about reelection. It seemed like yesterday, it seemed like last week that I was standing here speaking here to you as a completely unknown candidate. No one had heard of me, no one believed, except for you."

Mr. Grimm went on to tout his status as a veteran and a former undercover FBI agent, comparing the tough times he's faced in the past to some of his current struggles and challenges.

"Yes, there were many times that I dropped to my knees and I looked to God. It's amazing because so many people think they know so much about me, and certainly the press does their job to try," he said, surely referencing the string of bad headlines and controversies chasing him this year. "But there's things that they don't know. They don't know my secret weapon has been my faith in God, always, always has. I believe that I've never, ever been alone in those dark moments."

But most notably of his speech, Mr. Grimm seemed to be directly campaigning against the President. He said multiple times that he can run on his record, unlike people like Barack Obama, who need "to spin stories and bring in former presidents," indirectly citing Bill Clinton's passionate convention speech on Mr. Obama's behalf earlier this week.

He then praised the country's ideals and declared Mr. Obama had put everything Americans care about at risk.

"In the last few years, I'm not so sure. In the last few years, I've seen a change," he said. "That change has started with 'Hope' and 'Change,' that's where it started. Because of failed policies by this administration, in the future our future is uncertain and our children's desire to be everything they can be is in jeopardy."

"This is not the nation that I spent most of my adult life serving. It's not the nation I risked my life for time and time again. And if you're listening to me Mr. President, if you're listening, this is not what America does and it's not what we stand for. We're better than that! We are!" Mr. Grimm continued. "Mr. President, I hope you're listening because the United States of America is the most exceptional, greatest nation ever known to man! And it's not because of the government!"

Mr. Grimm, however, is not campaigning for reelection against Mr. Obama; he's running against the Democratic nominee, Mark Murphy. (For what it's worth, the White House was probably not listening to his speech today.) After he finished speaking, we asked the congressman about this discrepancy, causing him to argue that since all Mr. Murphy does is hold press conferences highlighting a federal investigation into his 2010 campaign's fundraising and other issues, he's not even worth mentioning.

"Well, I don't really have an opponent here that's worth running against. My opponent has no platform, all he does is sling mud," he answered. "I don't respect a man that doesn't keep his word. He came out, said he wasn't going to sling mud, and that's all he's done."

It also probably doesn't hurt that Mr. Obama is relatively unpopular in Mr. Grimm's Staten Island-based district, which went decisively for Al Gore in 2000 yet also voted against Mr. Obama four years ago.

Mark Murphy (Photo: Facebook)

Democratic congressional hopeful Mark Murphy is releasing an internal poll this afternoon that his campaign says gives him a path to victory against incumbent Congressman Michael Grimm. The numbers give Mr. Grimm a 48 percent to 36 percent lead, which represents a decent amount of ground he needs to make up by Election Day.

"This is a very encouraging poll for Mark Murphy. Congressman Grimm starts below the 50 percent mark—a sign of weakness for an incumbent," Jeffrey Plaut, whose firm Global Strategy Group conducted the poll, said in a statement. "Short introductions to both candidates move the race to a tie. And the more voters hear about Grimm and the questionable company he keeps, the more they prefer Murphy."

The poll's findings validate the campaign strategy Mr. Murphy has been implementing so far--highlighting the various controversies that have surrounded Mr. Grimm's tenure in Congress, especially the federal investigation into his 2010 campaign's fundraising. Mr. Grimm has denied any wrongdoing.

Mr. Murphy's last internal poll from GSG was released at the end of June, which drew similar conclusions about pitching negative angles on both candidates. The last findings had Mr. Grimm leading 47 percent to 32 percent, slightly more than his current standing.

View today's polling memo below:

Mark Murphy has Clear Path to Victory in New York CD 11

Michael Grimm’s problems and votes against the middle class make him deeply vulnerable

There is a clear path for Mark Murphy to defeat Rep. Michael Grimm in the race for New York’s 11th Congressional District, according to a recent poll of 402 likely November general election voters conducted August 13-16, 2012 by Global Strategy Group (GSG). Key findings include:

• The 11th District is a classic swing district. Voters in CD 11 are divided on partisan measures, with 42% supporting the generic Democrat for Congress and 40% supporting the generic Republican. Voters are about as likely to identify as Democrats (46%) as Republicans (44%).

• Michael Grimm is distinctly vulnerable. Voters are net negative about Grimm’s job performance, with 45% saying he is doing a ‘just fair’ or ‘poor’ job. And Grimm currently earns under 50% of the vote, which stands at 48% for Grimm to 36% for Murphy – a strong sign of weakness for an incumbent.

• Mark Murphy’s profile is appealing to voters, and the race moves to a tie when voters hear short biographies of both candidates. Though Mark Murphy currently trails Michael Grimm in name recognition, an even-handed introduction to voters with positive information about both candidates brings this race to a statistical dead heat (45% for Murphy/46% for Grimm). This shows that the race will tighten significantly as voters start paying closer attention to politics over the next three months.

• Murphy takes a huge leads after voters hear about Grimm’s votes for the Republican budget, personal ethics problems, shady associates and extreme views on women’s health and guns. Negative communication against Grimm is extremely effective, with 6 messages on a wide range of topics raising major doubts in the minds of more than 60% of voters. After hearing negative communication against Grimm, voters give Murphy a large lead, propelling him over the crucial 50% mark and signaling that a majority of Staten Island and Brooklyn voters are open to electing Murphy to Congress. And this lead holds up, even after negative communication against Murphy. At the end of the survey, the vote stands at 49% Murphy to 34% Grimm – a clear sign of the strength of Murphy’s message.

The bottom line: Michael Grimm is vulnerable, and voters respond well to Murphy’s personal profile as well as Grimm’s bad votes, values and conduct. But Grimm’s advantages in name recognition combined with the difficulty of reaching voters in New York City mean resources will be crucial in allowing Murphy to get his message out to a receptive audience of Staten Island and Brooklyn voters.
###

correction: An earlier version of this post incorrectly stated that the head-to-head numbers were not included.

(photo: alex-tsamakos.com)

Democrat Mark Murphy is not interested in letting Congressman Michael Grimm's controversies go away anytime soon. After holding a press conference earlier this week highlighting the immigration-related arrest of Ofer Biton, who reportedly helped Mr. Grimm raise hundreds of thousands of dollars, Mr. Murphy's campaign is now robocalling homes in his district with exactly the same message.

"I am calling with an important message for Staten Island and Brooklyn voters about Congressman Michael Grimm's latest scandals and bad decisions," the robocall's female voice narrates. "Last Friday Congressman Grimm's biggest fund-raiser, Ofer Biton, was arrested by the FBI. This is just the latest close aide to Grimm to be caught in serious legal troubles."

Mr. Grimm has denied that Mr. Biton was his fund-raiser and sharply critiqued Mr. Murphy for failing to discuss policy issues. Notably, Mr. Grimm's top campaign adviser, Guy Molinari, called Mr. Murphy a "loser" who "couldn’t lead a Little League team."

"He has held multiple press conferences now, all focused on slinging mud at my character and reputation, but never once has he offered a single original idea about what matters to the hard-working people of Staten Island and Brooklyn," Mr. Grimm said in a statement after Mr. Murphy's press conference. "He hasn’t concerned himself with the prescription drug epidemic, the needs of our growing special needs population, our seniors, the fact that the Port Authority is destroying our local economy with devastating tolls, or offered any plan on how to create jobs."

"The implication pushed in the media and by my opponent, attempting to tie me to this immigration-related arrest, is dishonest, malicious and evidence of how dirty politics is the weapon of choice by my opponents," he continued. "I will state yet again for the record that the bogus allegations lodged against me are 100 percent baseless and any fair inquiry will reveal that."

Mr. Murphy's robocall also addressed the now-infamous dip into the Sea of Galilee that Mr. Grimm and other GOP congressmen took last year. Flush with alcohol, one of Mr. Grimm's colleagues from Kansas swam so in the nude, although he was reportedly the only one to disrobe entirely.

"And yesterday it was reported in the Staten Island Advance that Congressman Grimm went on an international junket which has become an international embarrassment," the narrator continues, who follows by urging voters to call his district office and "tell him the voters of Staten Island and Brooklyn deserve better than his series of bad decisions and shady associations."

Mr. Grimm framed the swim in very different terms, telling NY1, "If this was a family vacation, most people would have gone for a swim and enjoyed what I consider to be a beautiful experience in a very beautiful, holy place other than this [in]discretion, which he apologized for."

Robocalls are a cheap alternative for campaigns to highlight support or issues in the media, which, in the case of the various allegations placed against Mr. Grimm, looks to be a key part of Mr. Murphy's strategy.

“With these calls, we're reaching many thousands of Republicans, Democrats and independents throughout Staten Island and Southern Brooklyn," Mr. Murphy's spokesman Dan Morris said in a statement. "Growing concerns about Grimm’s scandals can be seen and heard across the political spectrum. Voters in the district are openly questioning whether Grimm is fit to serve in Congress."

Listen below:

MM robo call [8-23-2012]