By Azi Paybarah 5/25/11 3:33pm

staff

Behind Hochul’s Victory, A Team of Operatives

Global Strategy Group takes a congratulatory bow after yesterday’s Democratic victory in NY26.

In an email sent out just now, they wrote “this win marks our fifth victory in a Congressional special election in row” and “GSG is now 11 for 11 in elections held in 2011.”

But they are quick to note many other people deserve credit for Hochul’s victory too:

“While the victory was stunning, one thing that has gotten a bit lost in the political punditry is the quality of the candidate and her campaign on the ground in Western New York. Kathy Hochul ran a brilliant campaign and thrived with the national spotlight upon her throughout. Campaign Manager Adam Sullivan was a steady hand who ran a tough, disciplined race against two self-funding opponents and outside groups who poured millions of dollars of advertising into this campaign. We’re proud of the work we did on this race, but we didn’t do it alone. This was a great team effort with Steve Murphy, Jon Vogel, and Mike Reilly at MVAR who produced great ads, and Ed Peavy and Adnaan Muslim at Mission Control who developed persuasive mail. At GSG, Jef Pollock and Nick Gourevitch served as pollsters and strategists on the race.”

Here’s the email: Read More

By Reid Pillifant 5/25/11 3:13pm

very special elections

israel top line

Israel Crows About NY-26, Eyes Ryan’s Seat [Video]

Long Island Congressman Steve Israel, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said there are three lessons both parties should learn from yesterday’s special election in New York’s 26th Congressional District.

“They are Medicare, Medicare, and Medicare,” Israel told ABC’s TopLine this afternoon.

All joking aside, Democrats are pushing the notion that the surprise victory of the Democratic candidate, Kathy Hochul, in such a conservative district is a bellwether for the public’s reaction to Congressman Paul Ryan’s budget plan.

Video after the jump. Read More

By Azi Paybarah 5/24/11 10:35pm

very special elections

Hochul Wins [Updated]

From Buffalo News:

Hochul-48
Corwin-42
Davis-9
Murphy-1

The reactions:

WFP Executive Director Dan Cantor: “Tonight’s victory sends the message loud and clear to Washington: ‘Hands off our Medicare.”

DNC Chair Wasserman Schultz: ” It demonstrates that Republicans and Independent voters, along with Democrats, will reject extreme policies like ending Medicare that even Newt Gingrich called radical. “

New York Times’ Ray Hernandez: “Democrats scored an upset in one of New York’s most conservative congressional districts.”

Update: New York State Republican Chairman Ed Cox denounced the  ”radical scare tactics employed by the Democrats” and “divisive campaign of a self-funded spoiler.”

By Azi Paybarah 5/24/11 9:00pm

very special elections

Hochul, Davis and Corwin. (graphic via www.politicsplus.org)

The Predictions for NY26: Hochul Edges Corwin, Davis Trails

By now, the polls have closed and the counting is underway. It’s unclear when exactly a winner will be declared. Part of the reason is because of Jane Corwin’s court-ordered injunction on declaring a winner, and, more generally, it’s a close race and counting paper ballots is never a quick or easy process.

Most people are going with public opinion polls, which give Democrat Kathy Hochul a slight lead. Although, Times Union reporter Jimmy Vielkind is giving the edge to Corwin.

Nobody is predicting a Jack Davis upset (but my mom thinks he’ll get more than 20 percent).

Anyway, here are the predictions, made by some very brave, and smart, politicos, before the polls closed. Read More

By Azi Paybarah 5/24/11 11:07am

very special elections

What is Your Prediction for NY26 Race? [Update]

All eyes will be on the NY26 race today, where Democrat Kathy Hochul has taken a small lead against one-time favorite, Republican Jane Corwin, with Tea Party candidate Jack Davis is still polling in double digits.

So, what are your predictions?

Email me your prediction (for example: Hochul-48, Corwin-45, Davis-2) and I’ll post them once the polls close at 9 pm tonight, next to your name or whatever it is people call you. [My email: azipaybarah at gmail]

Along with bragging rights, I’ll see if I can get the winner(s) something laying around the Observer’s office. Maybe a t-shirt, or a mug. Or an Observer book.

Update: At 4:30, catch live footage of guys who have a much better crystal ball than I do — Brian Lehrer and Nate Silver. The topic: prediction elections.

By Azi Paybarah 5/24/11 8:41am

suggested reading

dailynews-tuesday

Morning Read: Hochul, Corwin and Davis

NY26: “Hochul’s campaign may become a prototype for many races next year.” [Jerry Zremski / Buffalo News]

NY26: Corwin acknowledges not addressing Medicare criticism early enough. [Robert McCarthy / Buffalo News]

NY26: Editors back Corwin; calls Tea Party candidate Davis “a fraud and a spoiler.” [NY Post]

Obama: Drinks Guinness in Ireland. [Philip Caufield and Helen Kennedy / Daily News]

Same-Sex Marriage: “I know the governor is a busy person, but I think my vote is pretty significant given the fact that I vote first,” said uncommitted GOP Alesi. [Joe Spector / Democrat and Chronicle]

Third Terms: Doesn’t seem like Bloomberg knows what to do with it. [Michael Powell / NY Times]

Warnings: “We can expect New York to lead the country in outmigration for the near future.” [Fred Seigel / NY Post]

Taxis: US Attorney in Manhattan reportedly probes why new city cabs aren’t wheelchair accessible. [Michael Grynbaum / NY Times]

Taxis: The story hits the wires. [AP]

Fire House Closures: “It concerns me greatly how the mayor treats public safety, especially fire safety, in a very cavalier manner,” said Avella. [Jonathan Lemire / Daily News]

Fire House Closures: Editors say cut funding to non-profits, keep fire houses. [NY Post]

Budgets: Alternatives to Bloomberg’s cuts. [Javier Hernandez / NY Times]

Ticket-Fixing: Bronx cop admits doing some. [Kirstan Conley / NY Post]

Ticket-Fixing: Details came as cop testified in court. [CJ Hughes / NY Times]

Transit: “Mayor Bloomberg in danger of being deadbeat dad when it comes to mass transit.” [Pete Donohue / Daily News]

Traffic: Bill requiring additional mirrors on trucks passed State Senate; could pass Assembly by Wednesday. [Glenn Blain / Wednesday]

Fees: LIPA charging locals $5 per pole to hang American flags for parade. [Mark Harringon / Newsday]

Fees: It’s the wood. [Newsday]

Fines: Editors want de Blasio to pay $303,750 fine for illegal posturing postering. [Daily News]

Pay Days: “Lawmakers who moonlight as attorneys” push a bill to boost lawyers fee’s on malpractice lawsuits. [Brendan Scott / NY Post]

Reform: What will jolt state lawmakers to action? [Bill Hammond / Daily News]

Redistricting: Editors say GOP plan in Nassau is “a radical act of disenfranchisement.” [NY Times]

CityTime: Long-delayed, over-priced computer system is operational. [Michael Saul / WSJ]

Alcohol: Push to sell wine in grocery stores. [Jimmy Vielkind / Times Union]

Crime: Man said he spent two nights in jail after police stop him for drinking Snapple. [Katie Nelson / Daily News]

Polls: No more smoking bans, say readers. [Crains]

Cartoons: Obama and his Middle East policy. [Michael Ramirez / Democrat and Chronicle]

By Azi Paybarah 5/23/11 5:27pm

suggested reading

Republican Jane Corwin [via youtube]

Roundup: Cuomo’s Clinton Problem, Alesi’s Explanation

2016: Cuomo’s problem is that Hillary is still viable, and “They’re too similar.” [Steve Kornacki / Capital New York]

GOP Media: Fox’s Roger Ailes thinks Palin is “stupid.” [Gabriel Sherman / NYmag]

GOP Media: “I am confident that if Sherman reported he spoke with ‘a Republican close to Ailes’ that he indeed spoke with a ‘Republican close to Ailes.’ ” [Michael Calderone / HuffPo]

NY26: Corwin admits she didn’t respond to Medicaid criticism soon enough. “When she started making these comments, I thought this was so outrageous, nobody is ever going to believe it.” [Youtube]

NY26: Fight between Chamber of Commerce and local newspaper over an ad. [Burgess Everett / Politico]

NY26: Green Party candidate entered GOP candidate’s office, made calls for her, and videotaped it, says aide on rival campaign. [Twitter]

NY26: Hochul leads. [Public Policy Polling]

Same-Sex Marriage: GOP Alesi downplays his attendance at LGBT event. [Nick Reisman / Capital Tonight]

Same-Sex Marriage: “Right now, at least, Mr. Cuomo and advocates do not have the votes they need.” [Tom Kaplan / NY Times]

Special Elections: Changing the rules in Brooklyn. [Jimmy Vielkind / Capitol Confidential]

Smoking: Ban in park, begins. [Jordan Ossad / CNN]

Smoking: Ban “expected to be enforced mostly by New Yorkers themselves.” [Josh Robin / NY1]

Media: Bruni first gay op-ed columnist. [Chris O'Shea / FishbowlNY]

Pics: Obama and Biden, arm-in-arm. [Pete Souza / Flickr]

Pics: Bloomberg gets a medal in OK. [Edward Reed / Flickr]

Books: First book loaned out by NY Public Library was called “Farm Management.” [Clyde Haberman / NY Times]

Corwin video after the jump. Read More

By Azi Paybarah 5/23/11 2:04pm

very special elections

Bill Clinton’s Robocall for Hochul

Here’s Bill Clinton’s robocall for Kathy Hochul, the Democratic candidate leading in the NY26 special election tomorrow, where one-time favorite, Republican Jane Corwin, is now trailing.

The first thing Clinton says about Hochul is that she’ll “protect Medicaid,” which has become the defining issue in the race. Corwin hasn’t recovered her momentum since saying she would have voted for Congressman Paul Ryan’s budget ,which, according to critics, would have gutted the entitlement program for seniors. Read More

By Azi Paybarah 5/22/11 2:56pm

suggested reading

Deputy Mayor Howard Wolfson, heading south on Riverside Drive on his way to work. photo credit: Angel Franco/The New York Times

Sunday Reading: After the Rapture and the Meaning of NY26

2016: Hillary? [Patrick Reddy / Buffalo News]

’67 Borders: “[W]e cannot afford to wait another decade, or another two decades, or another three decades, to achieve peace,” said Obama. [AP]

’67 Borders: Obama explains “it means that the parties themselves – Israelis and Palestinians – will negotiate a border that is different than the one that existed on June 4, 1967.” [Alisan Gendar / NY Daily News]

’67 Borders: White House won’t say if top adviser Dennis Ross backs Obama’s position. [Helene Cooper and Mark Landler]

’67 Borders: Josh Greenman shakes his head. [NY Daily News]

NY26: Medicaid a big issue; Davis spoiling Corwin’s chances. [Rick Karlin / Times Union]

NY26: If Hochul wins, she’ll be a blue dog, and pull Dems to the right. [Down with Tyranny]

NY26: If Corwin loses, “a lot of other Republican congressmen are going to suddenly dump Ryanism.” [Kyle Smith / NY Post]

NY26: Corwin emails “Our opponents are bringing in liberal downstate unions and radical special interests to drive out their vote.” [Twitter]

NY26: GOP County Exec Collins has a lot riding on the election. [Bob McCarthy / Buffalo News]

NY26: Corwin must know where her chief of staff is; Hochul didn’t do much on tollbooths; Davis is unhinged; seat may not exist after redistricting. [Donn Esmonde / Buffalo News]

NY26: “If Corwin can turn the conversation back to the economy, she wins.” [Rick Moran / American Thinker]

NY26: The district is Republican leaning, 75 miles, 7 counties; voters mostly German-Irish-Italian defendants with a median income of $55,028. [Phil Fairbanks / Buffalo News]

Medicare: Ryan plan makes Obamacare something Dems can be proud of. [NY Times]

Same-Sex Marriage: Editors push for legalization; eyes Republican McDonald. [Times Union]

School Salary: $500,000 for retired superintendent on LI. “Obscene” say editors. [NY Daily News]

Pension: Doctors say retired FDNY member no longer disabled. Law Department, FDNY and pension board scrambling. [David Seifman]

GOP Takeover: Insurgent County Leader has establishment support on Staten Island. [Tom Wrobleski / SI Advance]

Bike Lanes: Wolfson would ride faster if Grynbaum could keep up. [Michael Grynbaum / NY Times]

Art Funding: Advocate tells lawmakers institutions will lose $35.5 million in Bloomberg budget; refuse to explain figures to reporters. [Michael Saul and Erica Orden / Wall Street Journal]

Hotel Safety: Assemblyman Lancman wants hotel staffers to have panic buttons. [Twitter]

The Bible and Sex: A quiz. [Nick Kristof]

Books: Central Park Jogger retrospective, informative; history of public health policy in NYC worth reading; Zoning Handbook “entertaining.” [Sam Roberts]

Rapture: Daily News tries cashing in on it. [Tumblr]

By Azi Paybarah 5/19/11 5:26pm

suggested reading

Jack Davis

Roundup: Corwin, Hochul and Davis

NY26: Rubio for Corwin. [Celeste Katz]

NY26: Debate recap. [Robert Costa]

NY26: “while back in the Town of Greece for the funeral of my brother last week, I could not help but notice the charade that is occurring in the special election,” says a Corwin supporter. [Alysa Stryker]

NY26: Davis, quotable. [Dave McKinley]

NY26: Davis runs “most depressing ad ever?” [David Catanese]

NY26: “I visited both offices 10 minutes apart, around lunch time. Hochul’s call center was smaller, but totally full of youngish volunteers. Corwin’s call center was sprawling, but less full. Read into that: Not too much.” [David Weigel]

Trump: His school is under investigation by Schneiderman. [Michael Barbaro]

Tax Cap: GOP State Senator Flanagan shifts. [Liz Benjamin]

Headlines: ” Ghostbusters’ firehouse scheduled for Closure” [Fox]

Same-Sex Marriage: Strongest opponent is NYC Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long. “That fear of God he can put into people as a party leader is important” says Marty Golden. [Nick Confessore]

School Staffing: Amid layoff talks, city hiring teachers. [Rachel Monahan]

Students First: A video from the tour opposing Cuomo’s cuts. [Cara Matthews]

Video after the jump