By Azi Paybarah 5/24/11 9:00pm

very special elections

Hochul, Davis and Corwin. (graphic via www.politicsplus.org)

The Predictions for NY26: Hochul Edges Corwin, Davis Trails

By now, the polls have closed and the counting is underway. It’s unclear when exactly a winner will be declared. Part of the reason is because of Jane Corwin’s court-ordered injunction on declaring a winner, and, more generally, it’s a close race and counting paper ballots is never a quick or easy process.

Most people are going with public opinion polls, which give Democrat Kathy Hochul a slight lead. Although, Times Union reporter Jimmy Vielkind is giving the edge to Corwin.

Nobody is predicting a Jack Davis upset (but my mom thinks he’ll get more than 20 percent).

Anyway, here are the predictions, made by some very brave, and smart, politicos, before the polls closed. Read More

By Azi Paybarah 5/24/11 7:14pm

He Said / He Said

Steve Kramer, robocall specialist. (photo credit: facebook)

The Voice Behind an Angry, Anonymous Robocall

A bit more about the anonymous robocall attacking a consultant working on the Jack Davis campaign:

“The only reason I got involved is because I like Jack Davis,” said Steve Kramer, a robo-call specialist based in New York, who is taking credit for the calls. He told me he did it out of disdain for Jim Spencer, one of Davis’s campaign consultants.

“I saw him operate in a certain way with the Jack Davis campaign, and spoke with enough of his former clients to get a real profile of this guy,” said Kramer. “I’m so glad he’s old and that he’ll die or be out of the business soon, because he’s a real scumbag.” Read More

By Azi Paybarah 5/24/11 11:07am

very special elections

What is Your Prediction for NY26 Race? [Update]

All eyes will be on the NY26 race today, where Democrat Kathy Hochul has taken a small lead against one-time favorite, Republican Jane Corwin, with Tea Party candidate Jack Davis is still polling in double digits.

So, what are your predictions?

Email me your prediction (for example: Hochul-48, Corwin-45, Davis-2) and I’ll post them once the polls close at 9 pm tonight, next to your name or whatever it is people call you. [My email: azipaybarah at gmail]

Along with bragging rights, I’ll see if I can get the winner(s) something laying around the Observer’s office. Maybe a t-shirt, or a mug. Or an Observer book.

Update: At 4:30, catch live footage of guys who have a much better crystal ball than I do — Brian Lehrer and Nate Silver. The topic: prediction elections.

By Azi Paybarah 5/24/11 8:41am

suggested reading

dailynews-tuesday

Morning Read: Hochul, Corwin and Davis

NY26: “Hochul’s campaign may become a prototype for many races next year.” [Jerry Zremski / Buffalo News]

NY26: Corwin acknowledges not addressing Medicare criticism early enough. [Robert McCarthy / Buffalo News]

NY26: Editors back Corwin; calls Tea Party candidate Davis “a fraud and a spoiler.” [NY Post]

Obama: Drinks Guinness in Ireland. [Philip Caufield and Helen Kennedy / Daily News]

Same-Sex Marriage: “I know the governor is a busy person, but I think my vote is pretty significant given the fact that I vote first,” said uncommitted GOP Alesi. [Joe Spector / Democrat and Chronicle]

Third Terms: Doesn’t seem like Bloomberg knows what to do with it. [Michael Powell / NY Times]

Warnings: “We can expect New York to lead the country in outmigration for the near future.” [Fred Seigel / NY Post]

Taxis: US Attorney in Manhattan reportedly probes why new city cabs aren’t wheelchair accessible. [Michael Grynbaum / NY Times]

Taxis: The story hits the wires. [AP]

Fire House Closures: “It concerns me greatly how the mayor treats public safety, especially fire safety, in a very cavalier manner,” said Avella. [Jonathan Lemire / Daily News]

Fire House Closures: Editors say cut funding to non-profits, keep fire houses. [NY Post]

Budgets: Alternatives to Bloomberg’s cuts. [Javier Hernandez / NY Times]

Ticket-Fixing: Bronx cop admits doing some. [Kirstan Conley / NY Post]

Ticket-Fixing: Details came as cop testified in court. [CJ Hughes / NY Times]

Transit: “Mayor Bloomberg in danger of being deadbeat dad when it comes to mass transit.” [Pete Donohue / Daily News]

Traffic: Bill requiring additional mirrors on trucks passed State Senate; could pass Assembly by Wednesday. [Glenn Blain / Wednesday]

Fees: LIPA charging locals $5 per pole to hang American flags for parade. [Mark Harringon / Newsday]

Fees: It’s the wood. [Newsday]

Fines: Editors want de Blasio to pay $303,750 fine for illegal posturing postering. [Daily News]

Pay Days: “Lawmakers who moonlight as attorneys” push a bill to boost lawyers fee’s on malpractice lawsuits. [Brendan Scott / NY Post]

Reform: What will jolt state lawmakers to action? [Bill Hammond / Daily News]

Redistricting: Editors say GOP plan in Nassau is “a radical act of disenfranchisement.” [NY Times]

CityTime: Long-delayed, over-priced computer system is operational. [Michael Saul / WSJ]

Alcohol: Push to sell wine in grocery stores. [Jimmy Vielkind / Times Union]

Crime: Man said he spent two nights in jail after police stop him for drinking Snapple. [Katie Nelson / Daily News]

Polls: No more smoking bans, say readers. [Crains]

Cartoons: Obama and his Middle East policy. [Michael Ramirez / Democrat and Chronicle]

By Azi Paybarah 6:37pm

very special elections

facebook

‘A Congressional Seat That is Probably Not Even Going to Be Here Next Year’

The Democratic consultant attacked in an anonymous robocall this afternoon for working with Tea Party candidate Jack Davis in the closely-watched NY26 special election is defending his work in the race, even though he admits he’s “working on a congressional seat that is probably not even going to be there next year.”

Here’s a snippet from my interview with Jim Spencer: Read More

By Azi Paybarah 5:26pm

suggested reading

Jack Davis

Roundup: Corwin, Hochul and Davis

NY26: Rubio for Corwin. [Celeste Katz]

NY26: Debate recap. [Robert Costa]

NY26: “while back in the Town of Greece for the funeral of my brother last week, I could not help but notice the charade that is occurring in the special election,” says a Corwin supporter. [Alysa Stryker]

NY26: Davis, quotable. [Dave McKinley]

NY26: Davis runs “most depressing ad ever?” [David Catanese]

NY26: “I visited both offices 10 minutes apart, around lunch time. Hochul’s call center was smaller, but totally full of youngish volunteers. Corwin’s call center was sprawling, but less full. Read into that: Not too much.” [David Weigel]

Trump: His school is under investigation by Schneiderman. [Michael Barbaro]

Tax Cap: GOP State Senator Flanagan shifts. [Liz Benjamin]

Headlines: ” Ghostbusters’ firehouse scheduled for Closure” [Fox]

Same-Sex Marriage: Strongest opponent is NYC Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long. “That fear of God he can put into people as a party leader is important” says Marty Golden. [Nick Confessore]

School Staffing: Amid layoff talks, city hiring teachers. [Rachel Monahan]

Students First: A video from the tour opposing Cuomo’s cuts. [Cara Matthews]

Video after the jump

By Azi Paybarah 4:46pm

very special elections

Robocall Hits Dem Consultant for Working With Tea Party

Jack Davis ran for Congress three times as a Democrat and is currently a Tea Party candidate in New York’s 26th Congressional District, siphoning votes away from the Republican candidate, Jane Corwin, who is running in a dead heat with the Democratic candidate, Kathy Hochul.

Now, there’s a one-minute, anonymous robocall going out to a number of political operatives and reporters in New York City, criticizing one of Davis’s consultants, Jim Spencer, a Democrat, for his work in the race.

The ad appears aimed at the professional class of political operatives and writers, and it’s unclear if it’s also targeting regular voters. The caller, who is not identified, says at one point:

During your next election, when you are choosing which consultant to help you with your campaign mail, remember that Jim Spencer and the Campaign Network had no business calling themselves progressive when they’re currently representing a Tea Party candidate.

A New York City-based Democratic operative not working in the race forwarded me a recording of the call they got on their cell phone.

Update: A smart point from a reader on Twitter: “It’s like a weird reverse psychology call. Jack Davis is NO #teaparty candidate, but the caller feeds the premise that he is.”

Here’s my transcription:

This is an important message regarding the closely watched special election for Congress in the 26th District in New York.

Democratic consultant Jim Spencer, president of the Campaign Network in Boston is being paid big money to help the Tea Party candidate in this critical bellwether election. Although Jim Spencer has worked for Congressman Joe Kennedy, Governor Deval Patrick and the Massachusetts AFL-CIO, he’s now changed his stripes and is backing the multi-millionaire Tea Party candidate while making a fortune for his supposedly progressive firm. The battle over Medicaid is being fought in Washington DC and the American people finally have the chance to weigh in through this crucial special election. During your next election, when you are choosing which consultant to help you with your campaign mail, remember that Jim Spencer and the Campaign Network had no business calling themselves progressive when they’re currently representing a Tea Party candidate.

Thank you for your attention to this important Democratic matter.

And, just for fun, here is how Google Voice translated the same message: Read More

By Reid Pillifant 5/13/11 3:40pm

Strange Bedfellows

photo credit: azi paybarah / wnyc

NY-26 Brings Paladino Adversaries Together

“Quick question,” Michael Caputo wrote to Alan Bedenko on Twitter yesterday, “who ever thought we’d be thumping the same tweeps? Not me, man.”

Last year, Caputo managed Carl Paladino’s Tea Party campaign for governor, and Bedenko was the liberal WNY Media blogger who released Paladino’s infamous emails, replete with racist images and even some bestiality.

“Our campaign was damaged by them,” Caputo told me this afternoon. “Within 24 hours of Carl’s announcement, I was on defense. They put me through the ringer.”

But, in recent weeks, the two antagonists have become unlikely allies in the special election to replace Chris Lee in New York’s 26th Congressional District. Neither Caputo nor Bedenko works for any of the three campaigns, but they’re united in their desire to defeat the Republican candidate, Assemblywoman Jane Corwin. Read More