(Photo: Menchaca campaign)

Congresswoman Nydia Velázquez does not forget. And she does not forgive.

Accordingly, Ms. Velázquez is now hoping to unseat Councilwoman Sara Gonzalez, who endorsed Ms. Velázquez's primary challenger last year. And she's given the maximum contribution to Ms. Gonzalez's opponent, Carlos Menchaca, part of an overall haul of $40,000 overall in just two weeks.

"I am impressed by how much Carlos has achieved in such a short period of time," Ms. Velázquez said in a statement this morning. “He is a fundraising powerhouse with a large coalition of progressive leaders, activists, and organizations boosting his campaign; he will have the resources and support to win."

In the same press release, Mr. Menchaca, a former staffer in Council Speaker Christine Quinn and Borough President Marty Markowitz's offices, also touted his SEIU 32BJ endorsement over the weekend. He was the only challenger to an incumbent Democratic council member to receive the union's nod.

If elected, Mr. Menchaca would be the first openly LGBT elected official in Brooklyn, and the first Mexican-American elected official anywhere in the city, according to his campaign. The district he's vying for contains a substantial Mexican-American community in Sunset Park.

In 2012, Ms. Velázquez beat back a challenge from Councilman Erik Dilan, whose campaign was backed by the Brooklyn Democratic establishment. Since then, she's supported opponents of several of Mr. Dilan's other allies, including his father, State Senator Martin Dilan, as well as Assemblymen Rafael Espinal and Vito Lopez.

(Photo: Facebook)

Assemblyman Rafael Espinal is officially campaigning for the seat belonging to outgoing Councilman Erik Dilan, he told Politicker today. Combined with yesterday's Council announcement by Assemblyman Micah Kellner and Joe Lhota's mayoral campaign, indicators are piling up that the 2013 election cycle is fully underway, up an down the ballot.

"I just think it's a great opportunity to have a direct impact on my communities; in the State Assembly, it's harder to bring resources into our neighborhoods," Mr. Espinal said, adding that his experience as Mr. Dilan's chief of staff will enable him to "hit the ground running."

Mr. Espinal, who won a high-profile special election in 2011, instantly becomes the front-runner for the seat, a majority-Hispanic district spanning the northeastern corner of Brooklyn.

Earlier this week, Mr. Espinal received a boost when his main electoral rival, Jesus Gonzalez, suddenly announced he was no longer seeking the seat. Mr. Gonzalez, who had campaigned against Mr. Espinal for the Assembly gig, was expected to mount a strong challenge and had already lined up some labor support.

"I was definitely surprised," Mr. Espinal said of Mr. Gonzalez's withdrawal, the same reaction experienced by many of Mr. Gonzalez's own supporters. "I had my foot on the gas pedal."

Nevertheless, two other candidates have also registered campaign accounts for the district, according to the city's campaign finance board: Helal Sheikh and the aptly-named Kimberly Council.

(Photo: Facebook)

In another sign the 2013 races are almost fully underway, Assemblyman Rafael Espinal, who first won a relatively high-profile special election in northeastern Brooklyn in 2011, is moving forward with his aim to replace term-limited Councilman Erik Dilan next year and formed a campaign committee for the effort.

"I'm leaning towards running, but the truth of the matter is I just got elected to the assembly," Mr. Espinal told us this morning. "But that option's available. I'm very proud of my record in the record in the State Assembly."

One Brooklyn Democrat told us the plans are even more certain than that and Mr. Espinal is all-but-certain to run.

Regardless, the move would make some sense; before he was in Albany, Mr. Espinal was Mr. Dilan's chief of staff. And the City Council tends to be an easier place for a junior member to effect change than the seniority-dominated State Assembly. “I have a lot of experience there, I worked for Erik for nearly 5 years," Mr. Espinal explained. "Erik has done a great job as a city councilman, and he's built up a lot of momentum for our community."

Another candidate, Jesus Gonzalez, has already declared his campaign for Mr. Dilan's seat. As Mr. Gonzalez was the Working Families Party-backed candidate who challenged Mr. Espinal in his initial special election, 2013 looks likely to be a rematch between the two. Mr. Espinal said it would be "interesting" if that indeed came to pass.

Moshe Indig celebrating Nydia Velázquez's win last Tuesday. (Photo: NY1)

Anyone who follows northern Brooklyn politics enough quickly learns that there is an incredibly sharp political divide between the two rival factions in Hasidic Williamsburg, where the larger faction favors candidates backed by Brooklyn's Democratic leader Vito Lopez and the smaller one favors candidates he opposes. With both factions turning out in record numbers in last Tuesday's election where incumbent Rep. Nydia Velázquez thumped the Lopez-backed candidacy of Councilman Erik Dilan, that smaller faction decided to take a small victory lap today.

In a press release blasted out by George Arzt Communications, the same firm that worked for Ms. Velázquez's campaign, Rabbi Moshe Indig, a power broker in the the “Aroni” Satmar sect, declared his faction's ongoing success over Mr. Lopez.

"Though Velázquez lost in Williamsburg, the margin was slim among the Satmar – 47 percent – 43 percent – because of the support of the Aroynem," the statement declared, with Rabbi Indig adding, “This marks a new era in Brooklyn. In a short period of time the Aroynem have surged and matched the influence of the Zaloynim.”

The rabbi pointed to past victories as well, including Dan Squadron's successful campaign for the State Senate in 2008 and Lincoln Restler's bid for the state committee in 2010.

“In the last 3 years whoever the Aroynem have endorsed and supported in Brooklyn, have won,” he declared (This isn't technically true, as there was another council and district leadership race apiece that went Mr. Lopez's way in that timespan).

View the full statement below, which Brian Krapf, Executive Vice President at George Arzt, described as a "favor to Rabbi Indig" as opposed to anything from Ms. Velázquez's campaign:

NEWS RELEASE

THE SATMAR PEOPLE IN BROOKLYN FLEX POLITICAL MUSCLE IN NYDIA VELAZQUEZ RACE
---
AROYNEM SECT NEUTRALIZE IMPACT OF RIVAL ZALOYNIM IN
VELAZQUEZ LANDSLIDE VICTORY

(Brooklyn, NY: Friday, June 29, 2012) Any perceived advantage Brooklyn Democratic Chair Vito Lopez thought he had in Williamsburg’s Satmar Jewish community were strongly dispelled after 20 -year incumbent Nydia Velázquez easily cruised to reelection to Congress this week.

Lopez who tapped City Councilman Erik Dilan to challenge Congresswoman Velázquez, no doubt believed the lockstep support of his longtime allies, the Zaloynim, would be able to deliver all of Williamsburg to Dilan and a potential devastating blow to Velázquez’s reelection hopes. However, the Zaloynim’s rivals in the Satmar community, the Aroynem, who have grown in power since the communities split in 1999, voted en masse for Congresswoman Velázquez, helping her secure her landslide victory.

We certainly delivered a strong political message across the state with Nydia’s victory,” said a leader among the Aroynem, Rabbi Moshe Indig. “Williamsburg is no longer under the complete control of the Zaloynim – the Aroynem has just as much power and influence.”

Though Velázquez lost in Williamsburg, the margin was slim among the Satmar – 47 percent – 43 percent – because of the support of the Aroynem.

“This marks a new era in Brooklyn,” said Rabbi Indig. “In a short period of time the Aroynem have surged and matched the influence of the Zaloynim.”

The Aroynem point to the establishment of their social service organization the JCC of Williamsburg, which rivals the Zaloynim-controlled UJO headed by Rabbi David Niederman, as proof that the Aroynem are on equal footing with their rivals. They have also grown in numbers in Williamsburg and Borough Park in recent years. The Aroynem have 30,000 members in Brooklyn, and 15,000 boys and girls in their Brooklyn school district.

They also point to their successful support of other political leaders including State Senator Daniel Squadron. The Aroynem helped Squadron defeat incumbent State Senator Marty Connor who was backed by Vito Lopez and the Democratic organization. They also helped elect City Councilman David Greenfield and District Leader Lincoln Restler. It is widely reported that the Aroynem now have their sights set on the defeat of City Councilman Steve Levin.

“In the last 3 years whoever the Aroynem have endorsed and supported in Brooklyn, have won,” said Rabbi Indig.

The Aroynem have also exerted their power in Sullivan, Monticello and Orange Counties; Kiryas Joel; Monsey; Spring Valley; along with the Williamsburg and Borough Park sections of Brooklyn.

One of the more recent fights has involved 4 summer camps in Ulster County to which both sects send their children. Both the Aroynem and the Zaloynim laid claim to the camps and the disputes reached the courts. The court ruled they hand no grounds to adjudicate the dispute and urged both sides to negotiate an equitable solution.

While many urged that the Aroynem and Zaloynim to split the camps equally, Vito Lopez tipped the scales toward the Zaloynim with a visit to the Ulster County Executive, Mike Hein. With Lopez at the meeting was Assemblyman Joe Lentol, Councilmembers Steve Levin and Erik Dilan. After the Lopez-applied political pressure, Hein awarded all 4 camps to the Zaloynim in May 2012. The Aroynem have again gone to court, this time arguing Ulster County did not have the authority to award the camps. The case is ongoing.

Following the death of the Satmar Rebbee, Moshe Teitelbaum in April 2006, a succession feud erupted between his sons, Aaron and Zalman. Followers of each brother believe they are the Rebbee’s true successor. As a result these dual communities exist within Satmar communities such as Williamsburg.

(photo: dilanforcongress.com)

It's Election Day today and there are many ways to get involved in congressional campaigns around the state. One of the suggestions from Democratic congressional candidate Erik Dilan seems misplaced, however.

Supporters who visit his official campaign website and click the "volunteer" button, are eventually greeted with a curious set of options that includes "Blog for Dan Halloran." Mr. Halloran, of course, is a Republican congressional candidate in an entirely different district.

While Mr. Dilan, who also sits on the City Council, might be a relatively moderate Democrat, it's unlikely he takes his ideology that far, and a bipartisan web error might be found to blame.

Mr. Dilan, along with two other challengers, is looking to unseat veteran Rep. Nydia Velázquez when the polls close tonight. Conventional wisdom views Ms. Velázquez as a strong favorite, but Mr. Dilan hopes to leverage his support from Brooklyn's Democratic Party and its head, Assemblyman Vito Lopez, in order to deliver a surprise victory.

Nydia Velázquez greets potential voters.

"She is going to say to you that Nydia Velázquez doesn't speak Cantonese, Fujianese, or Mandarin, but my heart does," Congresswoman Velázquez told a packed senior center off Mulberry Street in Manhattan. Although the line was a little cheesy, the cheered loudly when Councilwoman Margaret Chin finished translating it.

Ms. Chin, joined by Comptroller John Liu, was there to urge the center's elderly residents to vote in tomorrow's Democratic primary. The district, oddly configured, includes the heavily Chinese communities in Manhattan and Brooklyn, and Ms. Velázquez, with another campaign stop in Sunset Park in the afternoon, is clearly making a last-minute push for that community's support.

"I'm reaching out to everywhere, everywhere," Ms. Velázquez told The Politicker before addressing the crowd. “The Chinese community is an important community, I think [for] everything I've done for Chinese-Americans, I have to go back to remind them that this is important.  From immigration reform to health care, all of the money that we have secured from the federal government for the community health center in Chinatown in Sunset Park as well as here."

The incumbent congresswoman faces multiple challengers, notably Councilman Erik Dilan. While Mr. Dilan isn't campaigning heavily in the district's Chinese communities, another challenger, economist Dan O'Connor, is fluent in both Mandarin and Cantonese and has been focused in these areas, resulting in the need for Ms. Velázquez to avoid having these votes siphoned off.

For her part, Ms. Chin's speech introducing Ms. Velázquez  was entirely in Chinese, but Mr. Liu used a translator to make an impassioned case for both Ms. Velázquez 's and Assemblywoman Grace Meng's congressional candidacies.

"So if you are in most of Queens ... remember, we vote for Grace Meng!" he declared. “They're not running against each other. We vote for Grace where we can, and we vote for Nydia where we can!"

Mr. Liu finished his speech by switching over to Mandarin, urging the audience to tóu piào, or vote. Upon hearing Mr. Liu delve into their language, the crowd went absolutely wild with applause. Ms. Velázquez subsequently made the rounds, shaking hands and introducing herself to smiling constituents.

Nydia Velázquez (Photo: Wikimedia)

Councilman Erik Dilan, a candidate against veteran Rep. Nydia Velázquez, announced the backing of a number of notable elected officials at the end of last week (although some of the names on the list had actually endorsed the incumbent), and Ms. Velázquez has fired back with her own support this afternoon with Borough President Marty Markowitz and other officials.

"Nydia Velázquez has always been, and will always be one of Brooklyn's biggest supporters," Mr. Markowitz said in a statement. "Whenever a fight arises for the survival of Brooklyn's middle-class, support of small business or affordable housing, Congresswoman Velázquez has been there for us. Be there for her."

Also endorsing Ms. Velázquez today were Assembly Members Joan Millman and James Brennan, as well as Councilman Brad Lander.

Of course, these endorsements don't exactly come as a huge surprise. Mr. Lander had already been fundraising for her campaign while Ms. Millman, like Ms. Velázquez, is a political opponent of the Brooklyn Democratic organization. And Mr. Markowitz, having endorsed the congresswoman in a neighboring district he once contemplated running against, is likely to prefer incumbents by default.

Nevertheless, Ms. Velázquez is likely counting on doing well in the Brownstone Brooklyn portions of her district and the endorsements can't hurt with Election Day coming early next week.

Now, with New York’s federal elections only a few weeks away, we take a look at each of the competitive elections on June 26, take a guess at which way the paper will go and deduce what kind of an effect it will have.

Disagree? Make it known in the comments.

U.S. Senate Republican Primary—Bob Turner vs. Wendy Long vs. George Maragos

It is no by means a certainty that The Times will endorse in the GOP Senate primary, and if they do, expect it to be a hold-you-nose-and-vote-for-the-guy-who-is-marginally-better-than-the-rest kind of endorsement. Expect something along the lines of the paper’s endorsement of Mitt Romney in the presidential primary in April, in which they mocked Mr. Romney for abandoning his moderating tendencies and slammed GOP extremism before declaring the Massachusetts governor “the best choice of the field.” For this little noticed Senate race for the right to go up against Kirsten Gillibrand, the paper is likely to go with Bob Turner, a Queens businessman-turned-congressman, who is far less strident in his social views than Wendy Long and more dynamic than George Maragos. Mr. Turner is running very much as the candidate of New York City, and hometown pride may count for something here.

How Much Will It Matter?

On its face, probably not all that much, since to most of the GOP primary electorate the paper remains a liberal rag that frequently skirts the edge of treason, but with turnout expected to be low, there remain Republicans in wealthy parts of New York City suburbs who aren’t paying much attention to the race, and will only decide who to vote for at the last moment, so a nod from the paper of record could prove decisive.

NY08—Hakeem Jeffries vs. Charles Barron

Possibly the easiest choice for the board this election cycle. Hakeem Jeffries is everything The Times says they want in a candidate: he has a record on Rockefeller reform, prison reform, stop-and-frisk reform, redistricting reform. education reform. Did we mention he went to Georgetown and practiced law for Paul, Weiss? Charles Barron, meanwhile, a former Black Panther with a history of throwing rhetorical bombs, would have been wise to not show up for his endorsement interview.

How Much Will It Matter?

In the more affluent parts of the district, Times penetration is strong, but those votes were going to likely go to Mr. Jeffries anyway. If anything, look for Mr. Barron to use the paper’s endorsement of Mr. Jeffries as further proof that he is the insurgent running against the establishment.

NY07—Nydia Velazquez vs. Erik Dilan

Nydia Velazquez is by no means a perfect pol from The Times standpoint—too slavishly devoted to organized labor and a little wobbly on Israel, but far far better than Erik Dilan, who is closely allied with Brooklyn Democratic Party boss Vito Lopez—a no-no from the paper’s standpoint. Plus, Ms. Velazquez has made fighting poverty a priority, as has The Times, while Mr. Dilan has been right of center in the City Council and has been less than transparent about his campaign finance filings.

How Much Will It Matter?

As these things go, it could matter quite a bit. The newly redesigned NY07 skips through some affluent neighborhoods in brownstone Brooklyn and on the east side of Manhattan where Times readership is pretty high.

NY13: Charlie Rangel vs. Adriano Espaillat vs. Clyde Williams vs. Joyce Johnson

At last, a real choice for the board. In 2010, they endorsed Joyce Johnson, a Seagram’s exec with limited political experience, but they couldn’t then endorse Charlie Rangel, whose use of rent-stabilized apartments for campaign purposes—a story that the Times uncovered—led to the longtime pol’s censure in the House. But Ms. Johnson is by no means a lock this time around, since Mr. Rangel is facing far more credible opponents. Clyde Williams, a former aide in both the Clinton and Obama White Houses, represents a new face of African-American leadership and has run a substantive campaign. Adriano Espaillat is vying to become the first Dominican in Congress, and the paper likes for minority groups to be represented by their own. And don’t discount the possibility that the board decides that the threat of losing an institution like Mr. Rangel is too grave. Mr. Espaillat’s campaign hasn’t been as policy heavy as the paper would like, but expect ethnic considerations to win out over Mr. Williams by a nose, with Mr. Rangel remaining a dark horse contender.

How Much Will It Matter?

The newly reconfigured NY13 lost the Upper West Side—which probably has the highest concentration of Times readers on the planet—and so won’t count for all that much in a new district that covers Harlem and parts of the South Bronx.

NY6: Grace Meng vs. Rory Lancman vs. Elizabeth Crowley

This is a hard one to figure, and oddly, probably depends a lot on what the Times decides to do with the Rangel race. Like Mr. Espaillat, Ms. Meng is a pathbreaking candidate, vying to be the first Asian-American from New York to serve in Congress. And the newly reconfigured district is a majority Asian. Still Rory Lancman has run a specific, policy oriented campaign, and the hard-charging Asssemblyman fits the profile of the kind of pol that The Times likes. And Ms. Meng’s ties to the Queens County Democratic Party—who have fended off accusations of throwing surrogate candidates onto the ballot to weaken Mr. Lancman—will hurt her.  If the paper goes with Mr. Espaillat in a majority Hispanic district, it likely frees the board to go with Mr. Lancman here. If not, Ms. Meng has a better shot. Elizabeth Crowley has struggled on the stump, and isn’t likely to merit serious consideration.

How Much Will It Matter?
Quite a bit in some of the more affluent neighborhoods of Queens  around Forest Hills. Mr. Lancman is counting on those voters coming home to him, so it could be devastating if the paper goes with Ms. Meng.

Brad Lander

One of the consequences of redistricting is that Congresswoman Nydia Velázquez picked up a larger swath of Brownstone Brooklyn and Park Slope, but Park Slope Councilman Brad Lander has her back. He's raising money for her next Sunday and again the Wednesday the week after, according to invitations he's sent out to his supporters.

"Nydia is in a tough reelection fight. We need Nydia in Washington fighting for us and she needs our support to win," Mr. Lander wrote. "So I hope you can join me and other Brooklyn progressives for a brunch to support her reelection campaign."

Ms. Velázquez, of course, is being challenged in the Democratic primary by multiple challengers, the most notable among them being Councilman Erik Dilan. As with everything in Brooklyn Democratic politics, there's always plenty of palace intrigue, and Mr. Dilan is not only Mr. Lander's colleague but also the candidate backed by the Kings County Democratic Party. In addition, Assemblyman Vito Lopez, the county's Democratic leader, is a stark political opponent of Ms. Velázquez.

It should be said that Mr. Lander's support doesn't necessarily come as a huge surprise. Ms. Velázquez backed Mr. Lander in his own competitive race for the City Council in 2009 and Mr. Lander joined Ms. Velázquez in backing the candidate opposed by the county organization in a special election for the State Assembly last summer. With his latest move, Mr. Lander, a possible candidate for Brooklyn Borough President in 2013, seems to be further allying himself with the reformers opposed to Mr. Lopez than with the establishment.

However, Mr. Lander isn't the only local council member who's weighed in on the race. Councilman Steve Levin, who represents a lot of the new territory Ms. Velázquez picked up in redistricting, has officially endorsed Mr. Dilan.

Read Mr. Lander's full fundraising note below:

Dear neighbor,

In Washington, D.C., Social Security, Medicare, and the safety net are under attack by politicians who put the interests of the wealthy ahead of the interests of the many. We need a representative who fights cuts and presses for progressive solutions to get our country back on track.

That’s why I’m glad to have Nydia Velazquez as my congressional representative. In her 20 years representing our diverse Brooklyn community, Nydia has been a voice for those who need it most, advancing civil rights, job opportunities, and workers’ rights.

But Nydia is in a tough reelection fight. We need Nydia in Washington fighting for us and she needs our support to win.

So I hope you can join me and other Brooklyn progressives for a brunch to support her reelection campaign.

I would like to invite you to a brunch at the home of neighbors Leah Archibald and Dave McBride in Park Slope in support of Nydia Velazquez for Congress.

Details:
Sunday, June 3rd 11 AM - 1 PM
The home of Leah Archibald and Dave McBride in Park Slope (RSVP for exact address)

Please email lander.volunteers@gmail.com to RSVP.

If you would like to support Nydia, but cannot make it on the 3rd, you can still contribute by going to her website: nydiamvelazquez.com.

Hope to see you at the brunch - and don't forget to vote in the primary on Tuesday, June 26th.

Brad

"Republicans revolted. Some Democrats wavered," the headline reads. "NYDIA VELÁZQUEZ STOOD STRONG."

The other things on the front page of the mailer are a New York Times headline on the health care legislation passing and a statement declaring, "THE REST IS HISTORY."

The rest of the ad is fairly simple and direct as well, emphasizing the positive attributes of the bill and showing a large photo of Ms. Velázquez with President Barack Obama, clearly a sign that she wouldn't mind being associated with the president's brand.

View below: