(Photo: Facebook)

Councilwoman Elizabeth Crowley's congressional campaign was initially viewed as something of a third wheel in what was expected to be a marquee battle solely between Assembly Members Grace Meng and Rory Lancman. In front of a polling station in Forest Hills, however, Ms. Crowley said those expectations were flawed from the very start.

"I think those people were outsiders," she said. "They were like politicos that didn't know the realities of the district. I'm popular in my district and my district has a large portion of the overall congressional district. I represent more than my opponents do."

And Ms. Crowley will need to have good turnout in her council district in order to upset the latest conventional wisdom that holds Ms. Meng as the favorite to emerge victorious later tonight. A poll worker at the precinct told The Politicker that 333 voters had turned out so far by that point earlier this afternoon, a decent amount but certainly not overwhelming.

"It's hard to judge," she said of the numbers. "I think the evening is when the rush comes."

Her campaign had blanketed the various paths to the polling station (100 feet away from the entrance, according to the law) with about a dozen volunteers, mostly from unions supporting her candidacy, handing out literature to everybody they could.

Yet the difficulty of actually getting people to vote today was apparent. As a union volunteer for Mr. Lancman explained to us at the poll site, "I didn't even know there was an election today until they called me."

Voting continues until 9pm tonight.

A scene from Ms. Crowley's campaign video hitting Mr. Lancman. (Photo: Vimeo)

Assembly Members Grace Meng and Rory Lancman, both candidates for an open congressional seat in northeastern Queens, have been taking shots at one another on issues ranging from Social Security to The New York Times endorsement, but the third main candidate in the race, Councilwoman Elizabeth Crowley, has largely been keeping her head down. That changed this morning when her campaign released a video accusing Mr. Lancman of being hypocritical on the issue of independent redistricting.

"Assemblyman Lancman is very eager to attack his opponents, but seems to have forgotten to mind his own backyard," a high ranking official in Ms. Crowley's campaign declared. "If he tells a crowd of voters that he supports independent redistricting and always has, but told NY1 four months ago that he had a hand in drawing his own lines, it is a case of pandering at best and lying at worst."

"Will the real Rory Lancman please stand up?" he further asked.

Mr. Lancman was among those former Mayor Ed Koch declared a “Hero of Reform” for supporting independent redistricting reform but ultimately voted for a gerrymandered map that came with a watered-down reform package for future decades' redistricting processes. However, Mr. Koch, who held a rally for Mr. Lancman yesterday, has said  he would not use that vote against lawmakers.

Ms. Meng also voted for the redistricting deal while Ms. Crowley, as a member of an entirely different legislative body, obviously could not vote one way or the other.

The increasing back-and-forth is understandable as the June 26th election is in its home stretch and the candidate are debating tonight on Inside City Hall, where this issue may come up.

Watch Ms. Crowley's campaign video taking Mr. Lancman to task below:

Will the Real Rory Lancman Please Stand Up? from Elizabeth Crowley for Congress on Vimeo.

On the back side of the ad -- which, to be fair, largely touts Mr. Lancman's commitment to Social Security and images of the candidate talking to old people -- are photos of Ms. Meng and Ms. Crowley next to this text:

GRACE MENG: Believes there is no crisis and we should just let benefits get reduced.

"The funds are not running out tomorrow. In 2033, even if Congress and our government took zero action, there would still be enough funds in there to pay about three quarters of the benefits."

ELIZABETH CROWLEY: Opposes lifting the Social Security tax exemption for high-income earners.

Ms. Crowley defended her position by arguing she was just looking to avoid raising taxes on the middle class, responding in a statement, "Raising taxes on the middle class and on small businesses is exactly what we don't need to help Social Security. I'm sorry that Mr. Lancman thinks that it is a good idea."

For her part, Ms. Meng's campaign argued Mr. Lancman's quote of her is not an advocacy for cutting benefits, and a spokesman furthermore called his "repeated distortion of the facts" "pathetic and, frankly, disturbing."

Mr. Lancman's campaign naturally insisted that the comments speak for themselves, and his spokesman declared, "The Meng campaign can try to spin all they want, but the tape doesn't lie."

Technologically savvy recipients of the critical campaign mailer (which might not be the crowd most interested in Social Security) can even use a QR code next to Ms. Meng and Ms. Crowley on the ad to be sent to this YouTube of their comments;

Now, with New York’s federal elections only a few weeks away, we take a look at each of the competitive elections on June 26, take a guess at which way the paper will go and deduce what kind of an effect it will have.

Disagree? Make it known in the comments.

U.S. Senate Republican Primary—Bob Turner vs. Wendy Long vs. George Maragos

It is no by means a certainty that The Times will endorse in the GOP Senate primary, and if they do, expect it to be a hold-you-nose-and-vote-for-the-guy-who-is-marginally-better-than-the-rest kind of endorsement. Expect something along the lines of the paper’s endorsement of Mitt Romney in the presidential primary in April, in which they mocked Mr. Romney for abandoning his moderating tendencies and slammed GOP extremism before declaring the Massachusetts governor “the best choice of the field.” For this little noticed Senate race for the right to go up against Kirsten Gillibrand, the paper is likely to go with Bob Turner, a Queens businessman-turned-congressman, who is far less strident in his social views than Wendy Long and more dynamic than George Maragos. Mr. Turner is running very much as the candidate of New York City, and hometown pride may count for something here.

How Much Will It Matter?

On its face, probably not all that much, since to most of the GOP primary electorate the paper remains a liberal rag that frequently skirts the edge of treason, but with turnout expected to be low, there remain Republicans in wealthy parts of New York City suburbs who aren’t paying much attention to the race, and will only decide who to vote for at the last moment, so a nod from the paper of record could prove decisive.

NY08—Hakeem Jeffries vs. Charles Barron

Possibly the easiest choice for the board this election cycle. Hakeem Jeffries is everything The Times says they want in a candidate: he has a record on Rockefeller reform, prison reform, stop-and-frisk reform, redistricting reform. education reform. Did we mention he went to Georgetown and practiced law for Paul, Weiss? Charles Barron, meanwhile, a former Black Panther with a history of throwing rhetorical bombs, would have been wise to not show up for his endorsement interview.

How Much Will It Matter?

In the more affluent parts of the district, Times penetration is strong, but those votes were going to likely go to Mr. Jeffries anyway. If anything, look for Mr. Barron to use the paper’s endorsement of Mr. Jeffries as further proof that he is the insurgent running against the establishment.

NY07—Nydia Velazquez vs. Erik Dilan

Nydia Velazquez is by no means a perfect pol from The Times standpoint—too slavishly devoted to organized labor and a little wobbly on Israel, but far far better than Erik Dilan, who is closely allied with Brooklyn Democratic Party boss Vito Lopez—a no-no from the paper’s standpoint. Plus, Ms. Velazquez has made fighting poverty a priority, as has The Times, while Mr. Dilan has been right of center in the City Council and has been less than transparent about his campaign finance filings.

How Much Will It Matter?

As these things go, it could matter quite a bit. The newly redesigned NY07 skips through some affluent neighborhoods in brownstone Brooklyn and on the east side of Manhattan where Times readership is pretty high.

NY13: Charlie Rangel vs. Adriano Espaillat vs. Clyde Williams vs. Joyce Johnson

At last, a real choice for the board. In 2010, they endorsed Joyce Johnson, a Seagram’s exec with limited political experience, but they couldn’t then endorse Charlie Rangel, whose use of rent-stabilized apartments for campaign purposes—a story that the Times uncovered—led to the longtime pol’s censure in the House. But Ms. Johnson is by no means a lock this time around, since Mr. Rangel is facing far more credible opponents. Clyde Williams, a former aide in both the Clinton and Obama White Houses, represents a new face of African-American leadership and has run a substantive campaign. Adriano Espaillat is vying to become the first Dominican in Congress, and the paper likes for minority groups to be represented by their own. And don’t discount the possibility that the board decides that the threat of losing an institution like Mr. Rangel is too grave. Mr. Espaillat’s campaign hasn’t been as policy heavy as the paper would like, but expect ethnic considerations to win out over Mr. Williams by a nose, with Mr. Rangel remaining a dark horse contender.

How Much Will It Matter?

The newly reconfigured NY13 lost the Upper West Side—which probably has the highest concentration of Times readers on the planet—and so won’t count for all that much in a new district that covers Harlem and parts of the South Bronx.

NY6: Grace Meng vs. Rory Lancman vs. Elizabeth Crowley

This is a hard one to figure, and oddly, probably depends a lot on what the Times decides to do with the Rangel race. Like Mr. Espaillat, Ms. Meng is a pathbreaking candidate, vying to be the first Asian-American from New York to serve in Congress. And the newly reconfigured district is a majority Asian. Still Rory Lancman has run a specific, policy oriented campaign, and the hard-charging Asssemblyman fits the profile of the kind of pol that The Times likes. And Ms. Meng’s ties to the Queens County Democratic Party—who have fended off accusations of throwing surrogate candidates onto the ballot to weaken Mr. Lancman—will hurt her.  If the paper goes with Mr. Espaillat in a majority Hispanic district, it likely frees the board to go with Mr. Lancman here. If not, Ms. Meng has a better shot. Elizabeth Crowley has struggled on the stump, and isn’t likely to merit serious consideration.

How Much Will It Matter?
Quite a bit in some of the more affluent neighborhoods of Queens  around Forest Hills. Mr. Lancman is counting on those voters coming home to him, so it could be devastating if the paper goes with Ms. Meng.

The three candidates on ABC a couple weeks ago.

There have been quiet rumblings lately of multiple polls showing poor numbers for Assemblyman Rory Lancman's congressional campaign and unexpectedly good number for one of his rivals, Councilwoman Elizabeth Crowley, and earlier today, Colby Hamilton reported one of them from about a month ago showing Mr. Lancman "struggling to break into the low double digits." We reached out to Mr. Lancman's campaign about the numbers this afternoon, to which they responded with heavy vitriol towards the third candidate, Assemblywoman Grace Meng, who conducted the poll.

"Meng's phony poll is a slap in the face to the over 1 million union members who have endorsed Rory Lancman, and distracts from the growing awareness in the district that Rory is the only candidate who knows what to do in Congress once he gets there," spokesman Hank Sheinkopf said in a statement.

In most parts of the country, it would be expected that one internal poll should be countered with one another from a rival campaign, but in New York State, there's actually a law on the books that discourages campaigns from publicly releasing their own internal polls for political purposes, so -- publicly -- we're mostly dealing with vague numbers and insinuations at this point.

On the other hand, Ms. Crowley's campaign has been performing perhaps better than initially expected; she recently picked up endorsements of two unions with 100,000 and 50,000 members in New York City respectfully, and observers aren't viewing her as the same also-ran they may have when she first entered the race. She might also be benefiting somewhat in the polling due to name recognition from her 2009 Council race and electorate's familiarity her cousin, Congressman Joe Crowley, who represents a neighboring district.

For what it's worth, polling in this diverse northeastern Queens Congressional District's primary is naturally difficult, not the least due to the the plethora of languages spoken there, as well as a unique date for Election Day, which will make get-out-the-vote operations far more of a determinant than in a normal election.

Right-wing editorial boards and bloggers swooped in to defend Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin from Chuck Schumer.

Mike Bloomberg on Stop-and-Frisk: “We don’t racial profile.”

Elizabeth Crowley’s campaign, profiled.

She appears to be getting her marching orders from the PBA.

Do more isolated state capitols lead to more corruption?

Christine Quinn will be attending an anti-stop-and-frisk march next month.

Lincoln Restler will need to improve on his 2010 performance to have a shot at reelection

Dan O’Connor announced a web ad.

Kevin Parker isn’t enamored with the New York State Democratic Party.

Grace Meng picked up a local union.

A campaign finance group is targeting eight state senators.

Tom Allon defended stop-and-frisks.

“Who is Dr. Robert Mittman?”

New legislation could make it harder to add historic districts in Queens.

Mitt Romney and his wife gave their own campaign $150,000.

The Eagle Forum doesn’t think its a good thing that minority births are out-stripping white births, since “they do not share our values.”

A  look at what Mitt Romney’s Day One plan would really do.

Kathleen Sibelius spoke on the separation of the church and state.

Did Mitt Romney kill Americans Elect?

It’s hard to find a Democrat in North Carolina who thinks that Obama will win there.

Joe Biden doesn’t blame people in West Virginia for voting for a convicted felon over Barack Obama.

And Biden on same-sex marriage: “We didn’t make it an issue”

(Photo: Lancman campaign)

It had seemed practically every union in New York City had already endorsed in the race for an open congressional seat in northeastern Queens, but that's not quite the case. Assemblyman Rory Lancman, who has gobbled up the majority of the big unions, announced the American Federation of State, County and Mucipal Employees of New York earlier this afternoon.

In recent weeks, another candidate competing against Mr. Lancman, Councilwoman Elizabeth Crowley, has announced a host of smaller unions, including Uniformed Fire Officers Association, Metallic Lathers and Reinforcing Ironworkers Local 46, and International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 210 and Local 553, but AFSCME stands out, as with its membership components like DC-37 and and CSEA, it represents over 150,000 workers in New York City (but a smaller number in the Congressional District in question, of course).

(Mr. Lancman has also announced his own set of smaller unions in recent days, including Teamsters Local Unions 804, 808 and 917, and the Organization of Staff Analysts.)

At today's press conference on the steps of City Hall, the union heads endorsing Mr. Lancman heavily cited his work heading the Subcommittee on Workplace Safety in the State Assembly, a post Mr. Lancman has successfully has successfully wielded to elevate his profile in the past.

“Rory Lancman has been an ally and strong partner from day one in our fight to secure passage of Workplace Safety legislation in Albany and to prevent the privatization of Queens Hospital,” DC-37's executive director, Lillian Roberts, said in a subsequent statement. “In Congress, he will stand up against efforts to privatize Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and continue his fight against privatization of vital city safety net services.”

Also competing in the Democratic primary is Assemblywoman Grace Meng, who has picked up a couple significant union endorsements herself but is even more notably backed by the entire Queens Democratic establishment. Voters head to the polls on June 26th.

Dan Halloran and Bill Kregler. (Photo: Halloran campaign)

It's an endorsement bonanza in New York's 6th Congressional District today.

The three main Democratic candidates in the race, Grace Meng, Elizabeth Crowley and Rory Lancman all rolled out endorsements earlier today, and this evening, the Republican candidate, Councilman Dan Halloran, announced one of his own in the form of the Fire Marshals Benevolent Association.

“Dan has worked tirelessly for his constituents as their City Council Member,” Bill Kregler, the union’s president, said in a statement trumpeting the endorsement. “We need Dan’s commitment to working class families in combating a runaway dysfunctional Washington administration. Dan will steer this Titanic administration from disaster and put our country back on the right course.”

The Uniformed Firefighters Association, the union that represents active City Fire Marshals, is backing Ms. Crowley in the 6th district race. Mr. Halloran's press release noted he has two brothers who are serving as firefighters in New York and claims he "led the effort to save Engine 306 last year after the City threatened to close it in budgeting," a fact he further emphasized by announcing today's endorsement in front of Engine 306 in Bayside, Queens.

The statement concluded on a somber tone, reading, "The Council Member comes from a family of service and sacrifice. He lost a cousin, FDNY Lt. Vincent Halloran, in the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001."

Elizabeth Crowley (Photo: Facebook)

While Assemblyman Rory Lancman trumpeted the endorsement of SEIU 1999 today and Assemblywoman Grace Meng rolled out a set of South Asian endorsements, a third Democratic candidate in the northeastern Queens congressional race they are all competing in, Councilwoman Elizabeth Crowley, announced an endorsement of her own: Transport Workers Union Local 100.

“We think Elizabeth is going to be a dynamic new voice in Congress for New York’s working families,” the union's president, John Samuelsen, said in a statement. “We are thrilled to be endorsing a person with such a strong union background, and a person who we believe will advocate aggressively for a strong national policy for public transportation."

He added, "Local 100 will do everything within our power to get out the vote and help her across the finish line in the upcoming primary.”

The union is notable for Ms. Crowley, who has seen the biggest and most influential unions largely mostly going to Mr. Lancman, and, to a lesser extent, Ms. Meng. And, while TWU isn't the largest labor force in New York City politics, they do have tens of thousands of current and retiree workers in their membership, which can have a tangible impact in what is destined to be a low turnout Democratic primary.

The winner of the June 26th primary will face Republican Councilman Dan Halloran in the general election. For his part, Mr. Halloran is holding a press conference this afternoon to roll out his own endorsement from the Uniformed Fire Marshals Association.

The three main Democratic candidates: Elizabeth Crowley, Rory Lancman, and Grace Meng

Last Monday night, candidates for congress in New York had to turn in signatures to get onto the ballot, setting the stage for rival candidates to object and contend that not enough valid signatures were gathered to earn ballot access. While most of these challenges around New York City totaled to only a handful of objections in each race, the campaign for an open congressional seat in Queens attracted no less than 27 objections.

And every candidate in the race, from the main ones to the also-rans and third party candidates, saw their signatures challenged. Some individuals who filed their objections did so against almost every candidate in the race, a likely frivolous move against the main candidates at least, who collected thousands more signatures than they needed to qualify.

However, some of the lesser-known candidates, who turned in far fewer signatures, could see their dream of getting onto the ballot thwarted depending on how diligent they were in their efforts. And there's always the unlikely chance that one of the top tier candidates slipped up in their efforts to get onto a third party line, as we've already seen alleged to have happened in a Staten Island Congressional race.

In that race, the Democratic challenger, Mark Murphy, is arguing that Republican Rep. Michael Grimm didn't clear the threshold for the Independence Party. Mr. Grimm has since filed an objection to Mr. Murphy's Working Families Party line.

All of the objections filed so far only vaguely signaled an intention to more substantively contest the signatures to the Board of Elections next week, when specifics will be required.

View the full slate of challenges here, courtesy of the New York Daily News' Celeste Katz.