(Photo: C-Span.org)

Earlier this morning, Democratic lawmakers gathered in Washington D.C. to unveil the Assault Weapons Ban of 2013, which is legislation that would ban "military-style" assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition clips. The press conference announcing the bill featured New York Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy, the legislation's House sponsor, as its first speaker. Needless to say, Ms. McCarthy--whose husband was killed in a 1993 shooting spree on the Long Island Rail Road--made it clear it wasn't going to be a speech that stuck to the script.

"This battle has been a very lonely battle for many, many years," Ms. McCarthy began. "You know, a lot of words can be said. I've got a great speech here and my staff worked on it a long time and I'm probably going to do what they always tell me not to do. That means just talk from my heart."

Ms. McCarthy expressed particular frustration that gun control legislation has stalled in Congress but argued that the recent massacre at a Newtown, Connecticut elementary school would be the catalyst for change.

"For the last several years, the massacres have been going on more and more. Going through it, I kept saying, 'What's the matter with all of us?'" she asked. "How many people have to be killed before we do something? I thought for sure after Virginia Tech that we would get something done. Aurora [too]. But something happened in Newtown. The people of America said, 'How could this happen? How could this happen to our children?'"

Gun rights advocates typically argue that restrictions on firearms won't lower crime since criminals are inherently willing to buy weapons illegally, but Ms. McCarthy countered by arguing the individuals involved in shooting sprees are not capable of buying the weapons on the black market.

"We have these machines. We have the large magazines that can take down 20 children in seconds," she said. "Some people will say this bill won't work. Let me tell you why it will work. Because if you don't have these guns and the large magazines on the shelves, those who have done these horrific killings wouldn't be able to go into a gun store and just buy them. They don't have the background to go and look where the black market is and buy these magazines and guns. They go to the simplest place. If they aren't in the stores, they can't be bought. Think of the lives that can be saved. "

Adding that there's a need for additional legislation to deal with drugs and mental health, Ms. McCarthy said, "This is only the beginning. We're going to be working on a holistic approach."

Ms. McCarthy also addressed the death of her husband and what the meant for her emotionally, especially in the wake of the Newtown shooting.

"There's a lot of them saying that that's not going to do anything. I'm saying to you that we can save lives," she said. "Think about this, since Newtown, just about 1,000 people have died from guns. 1,000 people. Those children, their dreams--the dreams of even those who have died from other violence--never to be fulfilled. The day that that incident happened, I was actually giving an interview. And it was just a reporter following up on how do I get through the holidays. And she said to me, 'Oh my god, do you have the TV on?' And that was the beginning of my nightmare again....It has to stop. It has to stop. We can do it. We can make a difference."

Carolyn McCarthy (Photo: Facebook)

Two Long Island congressional finance reports just popped up on the Federal Elections Commission's website: Democrats Steve Israel and Carolyn McCarthy.

Mr. Israel, who netted north of $400,000, is less notable, however, as he is a more entrenched incumbent. Ms. McCarthy, on the other hand, won reelection with about 54% in 2010 and could see a potentially competitive election against same opponent as last time, GOP Nassau County Legislator Fran Becker. She raised just over $274,000 in the last three months.

Mr. Becker has not posted any fundraising totals yet or rolled out his campaign, so it's unlikely he'll be significantly topping her when his quarterly finances appear, and he certainly won't be matching her $750,000 cash on hand.

Ms. McCarthy also has one other interesting advantage in that, unlike neighboring Long Island Congressional Members Pete King and Gary Ackerman, as well as Mr. Israel, she kept the vast majority of her own constituents. On the other hand, her district is a couple notches more Republican.

She was previously facing rumors that she might retire, but mostly shooed them off by posting a large total at the end of last year.

Now that both the Assembly and the Senate district maps have come out (not that these maps mean very much of course) we can see that, in fact, the reverse was true: The Senate's version sends Mr. Ackerman mostly into Ms. McCarthy's district, while the Assembly map divides his district four ways and effectively puts Mr. Ackerman in a majority-minority district.

So what happened?

One plausible explanation could be contained in this story from The Times-Union, which details how members of Congress spent nearly $170,000 on lobbying members of the legislature. Ms. McCarthy was one of the biggest spenders on this matter, ponying up $15,304 to Brown & Weinraub, a lobbying firm that employs Michael Boxley, a former chief aide to Assembly Speaker Shelly Silver.

Ms. McCarthy has been largely silent on the matter, but Mr. Ackerman has been putting on his game-face over his new situation, sending out a statement Wednesday night that said he seemed to be suffering from an embarrassment of options:

“It appears the legislative parties have created two plans: One with an attractive and enticing Long Island district including constituencies I have had the great pleasure of representing for two decades, the other with an attractive and comfortable district in Queens containing my political base and longtime roots, most of which I have represented during my 34 years in public office. I commend the legislators for their work.”

Gary Ackerman has insisted he's running for reelection. (Photo: Facebook)

Over the weekend rumors emerged that Democratic Congressman Gary Ackerman would not seek reelection in 2012. In response to these rumors, Mr. Ackerman tweeted, "Republican rumor mill is 100%, Absolutely Wrong. I'm running." In an interview with Capital New York, he emphatically and repeatedly rejected this speculation as well.

But that's not enough to convince the National Republican Congressional Committee. The organization sent out a statement this afternoon directly stating Mr. Ackerman will end up retiring.

"The question is not if but when Gary Ackerman is going to retire," Nathaniel Sillin, the group's regional press secretary, wrote.

"Rumors have been swirling around fueled by two key telltales," he continued. "Exhibit A) The possibility that his district and that of Carolyn McCarthy would be drawn together – potentially forcing a Member vs. Member primary matchup.  Exhibit B) His lackluster fundraising - $55k and a 275% burn rate in the 4th quarter of last year."

Mr. Sillin's analysis further compared Mr. Ackerman to Upstate Congressman Maurice Hinchey, who recently announced his intentions to not seek reelection himself:

Is this another NY Democrat doing the old “I’m running until I’m not running” routine?? Sounds AWFULLY familiar.

December 31st: Hinchey spokesman denies rampant retirement rumors: “It’s baseless inside Washington speculation…Congressman Hinchey has repeatedly stated that he has no intention of retiring and he will seek reelection.” (Hinchey denies considering retirement, Daily Freeman, 12/31/11)

January 18th: Hinchey Announces Retirement (Democratic Rep. Maurice Hinchey to retire, Washington Post, 1/18/12)

As Mr. Sillin alluded to, much of this discussion centers on redistricting. New York will have to lose two congressional districts this year, and it's unknown which districts those will be, or even who will be making that decision; the courts have recently begun to intervene in the process. If Congressman Bob Turner's Queens-based district survives, it's reasonably likely that Mr. Ackerman's Nassau County district would be combined with a neighboring Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy's. Both have vowed to run for reelection no matter the circumstances.

Update: Characteristically, Mr. Ackerman responds via Twitter: "NRCC takes break from tryng 2 deny women access 2 contraception in order 2 lie about my future.Tomrw, back 2 attackng womn's rights"

New York 4th Congressional District, currently represented by Carolyn McCarthy. (Photo: Wikimedia)

Earlier this morning, Ken Lovett reported one of the two Congressional districts New York State is destined to lose looks likely to be Nassau County Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy, resulting in electoral implications across New York State.

Notably, because the seats are eliminated based on relative population loss, this would likely mean Congressman Bob Turner's nearby Queens-based district is safe. Mr. Turner's district had long been assumed to be on the chopping block, and Mr. Lovett's report certainly makes Assemblyman Rory Lancman's recently announced campaign efforts against Mr. Turner look far less foolhardy.

As The Politicker reported earlier this week, combining Ms. McCarthy's district with neighboring Congressman Gary Ackerman's seat makes a certain amount of mathematical sense, as Long Island can only support exactly four Congressional districts while five Representatives currently call the area home.

According to the Mr. Lovett's report, the districts would be combined in such a way as to favor Mr. Ackerman. However, if Ms. McCarthy does not wish to quietly exit stage right, there could be an exciting Democratic primary between the two representatives. Ms. McCarthy has been fundraising more aggressively than Mr. Ackerman and she is likely to have a substantial amount of territory in a combined district.

New York will still have another seat to eliminate, which could easily come from Western New York, an area that has seen the heaviest population loss in the state. Indeed, Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos recently told the Buffalo News the region would likely lose a Congressional Member.

As the New York State legislature is divided between Democrats and Republicans, conventional wisdom is that they will seek to divide their pain equally between the two parties for their redistricting proposal. If a Downstate Democrat like Ms. McCarthy or Mr. Ackerman is eliminated, an Upstate Republican could then be on the chopping block.

In an interesting wrinkle, Hudson Valley Democratic Congressman Maurice Hinchey is also not seeking reelection. The Politicker theorized that this third district could create enough political space for a new Latino district to be created in Northern Manhattan and the Bronx.

It is unknown if Governor Andrew Cuomo will be inclined to veto the proposed Congressional map, which would send the entire scheme back to the drawing board with unpredictable results.

New York's 9th Congressional District

New York may be losing two Congressional districts this year, but Assemblyman Rory Lancman, who announced his intentions to run for recently-elected Congressman Bob Turner's district today, told The Politicker he's confident Mr. Turner's seat won't be among them. His sentiments are echoed by Shelly Silver, who said he'd like the district to be kept around, and who, as Assembly Speaker, has as much say on what the final map will look like as anyone.

The conventional wisdom has long been that Mr. Turner's Queens-based district would be chopped up and handed to the surrounding Representatives. However, if the district is kept largely intact, some of those surrounding seats could easily be significantly impacted.

With relatively anemic growth in Queens and Nassau counties compared to the rest of the state, it could be very difficult to avoid eliminating at least one district in the region. Although there are nine Congressional districts touching either of those two counties, some of them are particularly challenging or impossible to erase.

The two minority-majority districts, belonging to Representatives Nydia Velázquez and Gregory Meeks, are likely protected by federal law (and wouldn't really be possible to eliminate anyway).

Three Representatives are likely too influential to see their districts eliminated and are not thought to be anywhere near the chopping block: Joe Crowley, who leads the Queens County Democratic Party; Peter King, who's the most senior Republican in the New York delegation; and Steve Israel, who heads the electoral arm of the House Democrats. Eliminating any of these Congressmen's districts could technically be done, but it would likely be de facto eliminating someone else's district by placing a powerful incumbent's electoral base in their seat.

With these five officials probably safe, only four Congressional Members remain: Bob Turner, Carolyn McCarthy, Gary Ackerman, and Carolyn Maloney.

Ms. Maloney, who's a senior member of the House's Financial Services Committee and whose district is overwhelmingly based in Manhattan's Upper East Side, would probably be hardest of the four candidates to eliminate. In addition to the difficulties of carving up a district containing only a small piece of Queens, Manhattan's many important political leaders would likely strongly object to the chaos the move would cause in their borough.

And if Congressman Turner's district is indeed kept mostly intact, the most obvious remaining option would be to combine the Nassau portions of Ms. McCarthy's and Mr. Ackerman's districts into a single seat.

This would mathematically work out very well as it leaves four Congressional Members entirely in Suffolk and Nassau counties, which can house exactly 4.05 districts under the new maps. Right now, five Representatives call those two counties home, with Mr. Ackerman's district also containing a slice of Queens.

The extremely theoretical plan could work out nicely for Mr. Crowley, who as the Chair of the Queens Democratic Party, is thought to want to shed the Bronx portions of his district. Absorbing the Queens remnants of Mr. Ackerman's district would allow Mr. Crowley to do precisely that.

The dominoes in this scenario could continue to fall in many different areas. With more Bronx territory available, there would be enough territory for a new Latino-majority district to exist next to a transfigured black plurality district for Charlie Rangel that shifts out of Northern Manhattan into the Bronx to Westchester. The Politicker reported that State Senator Adriano Espaillat is already gearing up for a run in this Latino district.

This, again, very hypothetical Latino district, could then come at the indirect expense of Congressman Maurice Hinchey's district. Mr. Hinchey, who represents the upper reaches of the Hudson Valley, is not running for reelection. Congressman Eliot Engel, who currently represents northern parts of the Bronx, might see his district, in addition to those belonging to his Hudson Valley colleagues, travel North towards Hinchey's territory as a result.

(Another district would still need to be eliminated in Western New York, the area of the state that showed the most population loss, under this scenario.)

Alternatively, one could scrap the Latino district proposal and give Mr. Engel more of the Bronx instead, possibly leaving Mr. Rangel in Manhattan as he allegedly wants. The Buffalo area, whose districts need to grow more than anywhere else in the state, might be able to push other districts far enough East as to absorb Mr. Hinchey's territory, but it could be difficult.

Or, maybe all of the talk about keeping Mr. Turner's district is a smokescreen or a negotiating tactic, and his district is eliminated anyway.

Update: Another thought is that perhaps Mr. Turner's district could absorb Mr. Nadler's Brooklyn territory, and Mr. Ackerman could see his district pull almost entirely into Queens as a result, allowing all of the Queens and Nassau incumbents to have districts to run in. Mr. Nadler and Ms. Maloney could then see their districts push into Northern Manhattan while Mr. Rangel's district pushes into Westchester.

Carolyn McCarthy (Photo: Facebook)

Nassau County Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy showed she wasn't going to take her reelection efforts for granted by raising $211,000 this cycle, Politicker has learned. This puts her total amount of money in the bank at $636,000.

As mentioned when Politicker reported neighboring Congressman Gary Ackerman's fundraising totals this afternoon, Ms. McCarthy represents a district that could theoretically be vulnerable in the redistricting process.

New York will lose two Congressional seats this cycle and there is much speculation about which seats will be combined or cut up to make this happen. Regardless of what will happen with the lines, Ms. McCarthy looks like she's getting prepared.

Congresswoman McCarthy was quick to note the breadth of her support on Twitter this evening, pointing out the vast majority of her donors came in small amounts, under $100.

Long Island Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy is introducing a bill tomorrow called the "Ending Corporal Punishment in Schools Act,” which would end the practice of children being struck or beaten in schools by school personnel.

According to McCarthy's office, there are currently 19 states that permit the practice.

“There are two Americas out there for young students right now – one where they go to school knowing that they’ll be guided positively by caring adults, and one where they live in constant fear of getting beaten,” said Rep. McCarthy. “Bullying is enough of a problem among students; the teachers shouldn’t be doing it, too.  There’s nothing positive or productive about corporal punishment and it should be discouraged everywhere.”

According to the the U.S. Department of Education Office of Civil Rights, over 200,000 students are the victims of corporal punishment in the 2006-2007 school year, and African American children and children with disabilities corporal punishment are far more likely to be victims. at disproportionately high rates.

Ms. McCarthy's bill would allow the education secretary to withhold funds to any educational agency or institution that allows corporal punishment, defined in the bill as “paddling, spanking and other forms of physical punishment, however light, imposed upon a student.”

The bill does provide for an exemption that allows for school personnel to use reasonable restraint if a student’s behavior poses an imminent risk of physical injury to the student, school personnel, or others.

The 19 states where corporal punishment in schools is currently legal are: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming.

Here's McCarthy's statement, which was posted on her web site this weekend and reported by Newsday on Sunday:

“I was offended by Congressman Weiner’s recent behavior, and angry about his lying to his colleagues and the public to cover it up.  These actions brought dishonor to an institution charged with doing the people’s business.

"Congressman Weiner’s request for a leave of absence to seek treatment, the lack of confidence of his peers and the daily distraction of these events lead me to believe that he isn’t able to serve in Congress effectively and should consider stepping down.

"I wish him and his family some peace during this difficult time and hope that we can get back to focusing on our economy, our national security, the future of programs like Medicare and other critical issues that are just too important to get sidetracked by what’s unfortunately become a daily national distraction.”

House Speaker Boehner's resolution passed along party lines, with but two New York Democrats -- Paul Tonko upstate and Carolyn McCarthy on Long Island -- joining Republicans to vote in favor.

A similar resolution, advanced by liberal Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinch, failed but was more complicated. That resolution, "directing the President…to remove the United States Armed Forces from Libya" saw a surprising number of liberal Democrats (Nadler, Rangel) voting in favor of it, while more moderate Democrats (Maloney, Crowley) opposed it.

Tim Bishop, a Democrat who narrowly won re-election to his swing district on Long Island, voted in favor of it. So did two upstate Republicans: Chris Gibson of Saratoga Springs, and Tom Reed of Corning.

Here's the vote on the Kucinich resolution:

No-Ackerman (D)

No-Buerkle (R)

Yes-Bishop (D)

No-Crowley (D)

Yes-Clarke  (D)

Yes-Engel (D)

Yes-Gibson (R)

No-Grimm (R)

No-Hayworth (R)

No-Hanna (R)

No-Higgins (R)

Yes-Hinchey (D)

No-Hochul (D)

No-Lowey (D)

No-Israel (D)

No-King (R)

No-Maloney (D)

Yes-McCarthy (D)

No-Meeks (D)

Yes-Nadler (D)

No-Owens (R)

Yes-Rangel (D)

Yes-Reed (R)

Yes-Serrano (D)

No-Slaughter (D)

Yes-Tonko (D)

Yes-Towns (D)

Yes-Velazquez (D)

No-Weiner (D)