Specials could indicate historic shift

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman, U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) told reporters gathered in Washington recently that 2008 has the potential to be what he termed a “tectonic” election, in which the electorate's views of the parties fundamentally shift. If two coming special elections are any indication, both parties in Washington may find out sooner rather than later whether a shift of the underlying American political landscape has in fact migrated to the left.

As if Republicans had not suffered enough after losing Congressional majorities, House and Senate Democrats are thrilled for the prospects of increasing their nascent majorities in November, and in fact they have already done so. The party captured an exurban Chicago district in a March special election to replace former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, a Republican.

Winning an exurban Midwestern district is one thing, but Democrats have their sights set on more ambitious goals. On Saturday, and on Tuesday, May 13, voters in Mississippi and Louisiana, respectively, will head to the polls to replace two former Republican members of Congress. In both cases, the Democratic candidate leads his GOP rival in districts President Bush won easily in both 2000 and 2004.

In Mississippi, Republican U.S. Sen. Trent Lott's resignation to take a lobbying position in December gave Gov. Haley Barbour the opportunity to appoint Roger Wicker to Lott's place. Wicker had represented the 1st Congressional District since 1994, a district that stretches across the state's northern border with Tennessee and eastern border with Alabama. In Louisiana, U.S. Rep. Richard Baker left his Baton Rouge-based 6th District seat to take over a mortgage brokers' association in Washington.

A spirited primary in Mississippi, on March 11, left Southaven Mayor Greg Davis the Republican nominee heading into the April 22 special election. A much friendlier primary on the Democratic side yielded Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers, a conservative Democrat. The resulting battle was inherently geographic; Childers comes from a county just north of Tupelo, the centrally-located population center of the district. Davis' hometown, a suburb of Memphis, is the other population base, though it is in the extreme northwestern corner of the state.

Republican Wicker, who is from Tupelo, in Lee County, routinely performed better there than he did in the rest of the district. On April 22, Democrat Childers won the county by a 58%-37% margin. That was just one symptom of a narrowly avoided disaster for Republicans, in which Childers came within 410 votes of winning the special election outright. One reason, Republican strategists say, is because Davis defeated former Tupelo Mayor Glenn McCullough in the GOP primary, and that neither McCullough, Wicker nor Barbour had been present on the trail on Davis' behalf.

A similarly nasty primary in Louisiana, in which the Club for Growth was involved, left Republican Woody Jenkins left to face the Democratic nominee. Jenkins is a former state legislator who came close to beating Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu in 1996. He is a well-known, but controversial name in and around Baton Rouge. On May 13, he will face State Rep. Don Cazayoux, a moderate who national Democrats have been touting as a candidate for months.

After the runoff, in which Jenkins and Cazayoux beat their respective rivals by wide margins, the Democrat released two polls that showed him at first narrowly, and then by a wider margin, leading Jenkins. Tellingly, Jenkins and the NRCC have not released any polls showing where they stand in the race. In both the special election primary and runoff, more Democrats voted than Republicans, a potentially disturbing sign in such a GOP-friendly district.

President Bush won the Mississippi district by twenty-five points in 2004 and by nineteen points in 2000; he won Baker's Louisiana seat by nineteen points in 2004 and by twelve points in 2000. And while Democrats represent districts as conservative as the two now in play – in Mississippi, U.S. Rep. Gene Taylor's district gave President Bush a 38% win margin in 2004, and in Louisiana, U.S. Rep. Charlie Melancon represents a district that gave Bush a 17% margin in 2004 – few believed the Democratic Party could win new seats in the South, after losing dozens throughout the 1990s.

Despite the GOP tilt of both seats, Democrats are optimistic about their chances. Their candidates “are certainly ahead in the polls, although these are very tight races. Nothing like a slam dunk, obviously.” DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen told this reporter Monday on XM Radio's “The Race.” “The message to Republicans is, 'You can run, but you can't hide'.”

Both parties have spent heavily on the districts through independent expenditures. Federal Election Commission reports show the DCCC has dropped $747,000 on Cazayoux's behalf and $401,000 for Childers' cause. The NRCC has spent $312,000 in Louisiana for Jenkins and $570,000 in Mississippi, for Davis. Both figures represent expenditures made through the weekend, as outside groups are required to file notice of independent expenditures within a day of writing the check.

The GOP still has hopes that, even if their brand is not as valuable in the South as it once was, it is still better than that of national Democrats. The NRCC has released two advertisements against Childers – along with one ad from Davis' campaign – and one against Cazayoux linking them to Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, efforts they believe will force the elections to become more national than local. “The special elections are the first effort on our side to inject that intellectual dichotomy,” NRCC chair Tom Cole told reporters at a briefing on Monday.

"Our candidates now are trying to turn those [elections] into a referendum on Pelosi, on Obama," Cole said. "As these elections become nationalized, I think we do better." NRCC polling indicates that, in Mississippi's First District, just 32% of voters see Obama favorably, while 58% view him unfavorably. Pelosi's favorable rating is an even more dismal 18%, while 39% see her unfavorably. In Louisiana's Sixth District, Obama's favorable rating is 37% with a 50% disapproval. Pelosi's is a similarly anemic 24% favorable to 47% unfavorable, according to the internal survey.

Childers, for one, has sought to distance himself from Obama and Pelosi. “Senator Obama hasn't endorsed my candidacy. I have not been in contact with his campaign nor has he been in contact with mine,” the candidate said at one campaign stop, according to local television station WREG. But Obama's website contained a link seeking contributions for the Mississippian, leading the NRCC to call Childers a hypocrite. “Travis Childers didn't seem to mind when Senator Obama was fundraising for his campaign, but now that the endorsement has become public and he is being scrutinized for it, he has forsaken Obama,” NRCC spokesman Ken Spain told this reporter.

But the Childers campaign is trying not to be drawn in to the national dialogue.

“This race is not about a Senator from Illinois. It’s about the people of Mississippi. It’s about right and wrong. And the way Greg Davis is running his campaign is wrong," said Childers Communication Director Terry Cassreino.

Whether national Republicans' efforts to get Obama involved will work remains an open question. But if it does not, and Democrats are able to pick up one or both special elections, Schumer's notion that the tectonic plates of American politics are shifting will gain more credibility. In fact, given that the two races are already so close, the shift is becoming more evident by the day.