Resetting the presidential landscape

To judge from the media coverage over the past week and a half, the presidential contest is already over. After Barack Obama's whirlwind trip to the Middle East and Europe, during which all three network news shows featured extended interviews and Obama won an entire hour of face time with "Meet The Press" host Tom Brokaw, one might be forgiven for forgetting about John McCain.

But despite the borderline obsessive coverage Obama's foreign expedition garnered, the presidential contest is far from over, and while Obama has a slight lead, McCain is also in good position to move into the White House in January. As cable news networks fill hours with mindless debate over the latest trumped-up flap that no one will remember in a week, it's time, with just under 100 days to go before voters head to the polls, to pause to take stock of the overall race as a whole in order to gauge the true state of the race.

After addressing 200,000 people in Berlin last week, after meetings with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and opposition leader David Cameron in London and after an unprecedented joint press conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, during which Sarkozy stopped just short of endorsing the Democrat, Obama's lead over McCain is now just 3.2 points, according to the latest Real Clear Politics Average.

But of course the race between Obama and McCain is not a race to win the popular vote, it is a race to the 270 electoral votes, which could conceivably be achieved by winning majorities in just the eleven largest states in the union. And most state polls show neither candidate has a significant grasp on enough states to claim anywhere near the 270 votes necessary to win.

By most estimates, Obama has leads outside the margin of error in eleven states, enough to give him 153 solid electoral votes. McCain has overwhelming leads in 16 states that are generally less populated than Obama's, giving him 133 solid votes. Add in states that lean towards one or the other that are not likely to be competitive come November (Including states like Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin and New Jersey for Obama, and Mississippi, Georgia and Montana for McCain) and Obama has somewhere around 207 votes while McCain can claim 157.

In the remaining 13 states, both candidates are battling for the most marginal of advantages. That these states are competitive should come as no surprise. In the last several elections, battlegrounds in the Midwest and Rust Belt, from Missouri to Ohio, Michigan to Pennsylvania, and in Florida have been deciding states. And while Obama's campaign claims he will make Virginia and North Carolina top targets, Democrats are more likely to pick up states in the Mountain West, where voters have trended increasingly towards the Democratic Party (Not a surprise either: Democrats have been openly optimistic about their chances in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada for two years).

McCain has opportunities to pick up Democratic states as well, including Michigan and New Hampshire. Perhaps most ambitiously, there is a real chance that McCain could swipe electoral votes from the state that has voted Democratic in more consecutive elections than any other, in Minnesota. Adding Gov. Tim Pawlenty, one of the apparent finalists for the vice presidential nomination, to the ticket could enhance McCain's prospects in the state that will host the GOP convention.

The race is more equal that it looks in terms of fundraising, as well. While McCain has proven a much slower fundraiser than Obama, by accepting public financing, McCain will benefit from an $84.1 million shot in the arm, money that Obama will have to make up on his own. McCain outspent Obama $27 million to $25.7 million. Although Obama has far more on hand than McCain, at $71.6 million to $26.7 million, Obama's stash has to last him through November, while McCain's needs to last only through he officially gets the nomination on Sept. 4.

Too, the Republican National Committee has seen fundraising success that gives them a leg up on their Democratic rivals. Through the end of June, the DNC held about $20.4 million in three different accounts, while the RNC had a whopping $68.7 million. That sum will allow the RNC to help McCain compete with Obama even if the Democratic candidate raises hundreds of millions of dollars for the general election sprint.

Perhaps Obama's best advantage over McCain is his superior organization. The campaign has opened offices in dozens of states, with plans to house at least token efforts in all 50 states. McCain's efforts have been slower in forming, though the RNC's Victory program has opened offices in many states.

With more than three months to go before Election Day, the maxim that a day is a lifetime in politics should have added meaning. In an era when every minor flap becomes fodder for hours of discussion and dissection on cable news channels, that lifetime has been amplified and extended. Despite nearly sycophantic news coverage last week, Barack Obama is not running away with the White House, and he is not president yet (Despite what Der Spiegel says; the German paper's headline the day after Obama's speech read "Number 44 Has Spoken").

In fact, Obama should not be ahead by a huge margin. In an era in which the country is more polarized than ever before, it will likely be a long time before any presidential contender garners what amounts to a landslide win. The presidential race will be close, and it's not going to be easy for either candidate. Don't believe the hype, on either side. There are almost 100 lifetimes to go until voters actually head to the polls.

Reid Wilson, national columnist for Politicker.com, is also an associate editor of RealClearPolitics.com and covers Senate, House and governors' races at PoliticsNation.com. Contact him at reid@realclearpolitics.com.