America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 3, 2008


Likely
Democratic
#13
U.S. President: Colorado
Incumbent: George W. Bush (R)
Last Week's Rank: #13

2008 Candidates

John McCain (R)

U.S. Senator

Arizona

Barack Obama (D)

U.S. Senator

Illinois

About the Race

For years, the Centennial State has been slowly shifting Democratic. In 2004, John Kerry tried to put Colorado, his birth state, in play and with increased turnout. President Bush still carried the state, but his margin of victory dropped from 9 percentage points in 2000 to just 5 points in 2004. In 2006, Democrats won every major seat, including the governorship. In that race, Bill Ritter won 57 percent to 40 percent. Trying to capture this momentum, the Democratic National Committee picked Denver to be host of the party's national convention in August.

Race Updates

November 7, 2008 - 9:45 am — Likely Democratic — #13
Obama won the state 53 percent to McCain’s 44 percent, according to The Denver Post.

November 3, 2008 - 2:31 pm — Likely Democratic — #13

McCain and Palin will spend Election Day morning campaigning in Grand Junction, according to PolitickerCO.com. In the evening, Palin will hold an event in Colorado Springs.

Obama has a 5-point advantage, 49 percent to 44 percent, in the latest Denver Post/Mason-Dixon survey of Colorado.

Palin is campaigning in the state on Monday.

October 31, 2008 - 12:26 pm — Leans Democratic — #10
According to the latest Marist College poll, Obama has a 6-point edge in Colorado, 51 percent to 45 percent.

October 30, 2008 - 11:54 am — Leans Democratic — #9
Obama leads 53 percent to 45 percent in a new CNN/Time survey of the state.

October 29, 2008 - 1:53 pm — Leans Democratic — #9
Obama has a 9-point advantage in the latest Associated Press poll of the state. The Democrat is drawing 50 percent of likely voters and the Republican 41 percent.

Obama's lead is 8 in the latest Politico/InsiderAdvantage poll in Colorado.

October 28, 2008 - 12:08 pm — Leans Democratic — #9
Obama has a 4-point advantage in the state, 50 percent to 46 percent, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll. The Democrat was up by 5 last week and 7 two weeks ago.

October 27, 2008 - 12:11 pm — Leans Democratic — #9

Obama drew a headline-grabbing 100,000 people at a crowd in Denver's Civic Center Park on Sunday, The Washington Post is reporting.

A new Rocky Mountain News/CBS4 poll shows Obama up by 12 points in the state, according to PolitickerCO.com.

October 24, 2008 - 3:08 pm — Leans Democratic — #9

Obama is scheduled to hold rallies in Denver's Civic Center Park and Colorado State University in Fort Collins on Sunday, according to PolitickerCO.com.

 U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) is in Aurora today campaigning on Obama's behalf, PolitickerCO.com is reporting.

October 21, 2008 - 12:25 pm — Leans Democratic — #9

Speaking anonymously, two top McCain advisers told CNN that the candidate's chances in Colorado are looking increasingly poor. "Gone," one insider said of Colorado and two other swing states. But the McCain camp is dissenting.  "It's not true," spokesman Tom Kise told PolitickerCO.com. "I don't know what the hell they're talking about."

Obama leads by 5 points in the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of the state, 51 percent to 46 percent. Last week, the Democrat had a 7-point advantage.


Biden is campaigning on Tuesday in Greeley and Commerce City.

October 20, 2008 - 4:56 pm — Leans Democratic — #9

CHANGE FROM TOSSUP TO LEANS DEMOCRATIC

Democrats have been picking up steam in a competitive House race here and the Senate race and we think Obama goes right along with the wave. Obama will not win by more than 5 points here, but he will still win. 

 

October 20, 2008 - 12:02 pm — Leans Democratic — #9
Obama's up 52 percent to 45 percent in the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of the state. Last week, he led by 6 points.

Palin is campaigning in the state on Monday.

October 17, 2008 - 12:19 pm — Toss up — #4
Obama has a slight lead in a new Zogby poll of the state, 47.5 percent to 46.5 percent.

Palin is scheduled to hold rallies in Colorado Springs, Loveland and Grand Junction on Monday, according to PolitickerCO.com.

October 16, 2008 - 12:54 pm — Toss up — #4
In the latest CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation survey of the state, Obama has a 4-point lead, 51 percent to 47 percent.

Obama leads by 7 points in the state, 50 percent to 43 percent, according to a new Time/CNN poll, PolitickerCO.com reports.

October 15, 2008 - 12:55 pm — Toss up — #4
A new Suffolk University poll of the state has Obama up by 4 points,
according to PolitickerCO.com. "Despite a small Obama lead, Colorado is up for grabs," said David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University, in a statement.

October 14, 2008 - 12:11 pm — Toss up — #4
Obama leads by 9 points, 52 percent to 43 percent, in the latest Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/Washingtonpost.com poll in Colorado. The results were identical before and after last week's presidential debate.

A new Politico/InsiderAdvantage survey shows McCain leading in crucial Jefferson County by 2 points, 45 percent to 43 percent with 8 percent undecided. Politico describes Jefferson as a bellwether county that President Bush won in 2000 and 2004.

October 13, 2008 - 12:56 pm — Toss up — #4
State GOP Chair Dick Wadhams is urging McCain to directly invoke Obama's ties to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayers, according to PolitickerCO.com. "I actually do think he should raise as an issue Senator Obama's association with Ayers and Reverend Wright," Wadhams told The New York Times. "I think those are legitimate insights into who Senator Obama is. I do not think it is irrelevant to this election."

The Hotline's
only remaining state listed as a toss-up is Colorado. It's the only one of the publication's 15 "battleground states" where the victor is in doubt.

The latest Public Policy Polling survey in the state has Obama leading by 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent. In the previous PPP poll, the Democrat led 51 percent to 44 percent.

October 8, 2008 - 12:33 pm — Toss up — #4
A new InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position survey in Colorado shows Obama leading by 6 points, 51 percent to 45 percent. "The undecided vote in Colorado is coming down and while Sen. McCain leads among men by a 7% margin over Sen. Obama, he continues to fight for the independent vote  and is suffering among the female voters," said pollster Matt Towery. "We see Colorado as either consistently leaning Obama or in the Obama column as of now."

October 7, 2008 - 12:25 pm — Toss up — #1
GOP strategist Karl Rove is predicting that Obama would win Colorado — along with the presidency — if the election were held today, according to PolitickerCO.com. The Grand Junction Sentinel's Mike Saccone observed on his Political Notebook blog: "When Karl Rove says a Republican is doing poorly, well, that's not a good sign for conservatives."

October 7, 2008 - 12:22 pm — Toss up — #1
According to the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent in the state. McCain, who led by 2 points two weeks ago, was only down by 1 in last week's poll.

October 6, 2008 - 12:45 pm — Toss up — #1
In the latest Denver Post poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, shows the candidates tied at 44 percent each in the state with 8 percent undecided. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr garnered 4 percent. In an interview with the newspaper last week, McCain said he was not concerned about the polling. "We go up and down," he said. "We're all within margin of error."

October 3, 2008 - 4:42 pm — Toss up — #1
McCain is speaking in Pueblo on Friday.

October 2, 2008 - 12:48 pm — Toss up — #2
A new poll by Ciruli Associates shows Obama leading by a single point in the state, 44 percent to 43 percent, according to PolitickerCO.com. The survey was taken just before last week's presidential debate and Monday's House of Representatives vote on the bailout plan.

October 1, 2008 - 12:40 pm — Toss up — #2
McCain is returning to the state this week to make campaign stops in Pueblo and Denver, according to PolitickerCO.com. He's scheduled to attend "a women's town hall" at the Sheraton Grand Hotel in downtown Denver on Thursday. On Friday, he's slated for a rally at Massari Arena at Colorado State University at Pueblo.

September 30, 2008 - 12:03 pm — Toss up — #2
According to the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll in the state, Obama leads by a single point. A week ago, the poll had him up three points. The candidates have been close to each other — within 3 to 5 points — in the last five polls.

September 29, 2008 - 12:08 pm — Toss up — #2
Barack Obama is scheduled to hold a rally in Denver on Monday.

September 25, 2008 - 12:39 pm — Toss up — #2
A new CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corp. poll shows Obama up 51 percent to 47 percent among likely voters in the state.

September 25, 2008 - 12:36 pm — Toss up — #2
In the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in the state, Obama is leading 50 percent to 47 percent. In last week's poll, McCain was up 2 points.

The latest InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position Survey shows Obama leading 50 percent to 41 percent among likely voters. Six percent said they were still undecided.

September 24, 2008 - 1:20 pm — Toss up — #2
A new Quinnipiac University poll shows that 22 percent of likely voters in Colorado say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that the upcoming presidential debates could change or help make up their minds, according to Politicker.com.

September 23, 2008 - 2:39 pm — Toss up — #2
In a new Public Policy Polling survey, Obama leads 51 percent to 44 percent in the state. His advantage in the same poll two weeks ago was just 1 point.

September 23, 2008 - 2:38 pm — Toss up — #2
Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano may stump for Obama in Colorado next week, PolitickerAZ.com reports. Napolitano has already campaigned for the Democratic nominee in three swing states.

September 23, 2008 - 2:37 pm — Toss up — #2
A new Quinnipiac University poll, conducted in partnership with The Wall Street Journal and washingtonpost.com, shows Obama leading 49 percent to 45 percent in the state. In the university's last poll, released in late August, McCain was up 47 percent to 46 percent.

September 22, 2008 - 12:23 pm — Toss up — #2
More presidential TV advertising spots were aired in the Denver market during a period in early September than in any other media market in the country, according to PolitickerCO.com. Between Sept. 6 and Sept. 13, 1,360 spots appeared in the market. Another 890 ads aired in the Grand Junction market, good for 14th in the country, despite its small size.

September 19, 2008 - 12:17 pm — Toss up — #2
The latest Insider Advantage/Poll Position survey has Obama up 10 points in the state, according to PolitickerCO.com. Several other recent polls, though, show the two neck and neck.

September 18, 2008 - 1:01 pm — Toss up — #2
According to a University of Wisconsin Advertising Project study, McCain outspent Obama on television advertising in Colorado $553,000 to $522,000 between Sept. 6 and Sept. 13, The New York Times is reporting. Both candidates spent 7 percent of their total TV advertising budget ($7.7 million for Obama and $7.8 million for McCain) during that time in the state.

September 16, 2008 - 11:41 am — Toss up — #2
The state has flip-flopped. Last week, Obama was ahead, but McCain has a small lead, 48 percent to 46 percent, in the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports poll. In February, it's worth noting, Obama led by 7 points, and this is only the second times this cycle the Democratic candidate has trailed here.

September 15, 2008 - 1:00 pm — Toss up — #2

Monday morning's pancake breakfast with Sarah Palin was turned into a rally because so many people wanted to attend, according to PolitickerCO.com.

September 15, 2008 - 11:50 am — Toss up — #4
In the last week three polls show Obama up, but within the margin of error. After two great weeks McCain has had it is unclear if McCain can win here or if he has hit his watermark.

September 9, 2008 - 12:10 pm — Toss up — #4
In the state that recently hosted the Democratic National Convention, Obama inched ahead, according to the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey. Obama had 49 percent of the vote and McCain had 46.

September 8, 2008 - 6:46 pm — Toss up — #4
McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin told a crowd of nearly 11,000 that Colorado voters could be the deciding factor in November.The two visited Colorado Springs Saturday for the first time, together, speaking to a large and enthusiastic crowd in an airplane hanger at the Colorado Springs Jet Center, as reported by PolitickerCO.com.

August 24, 2008 - 9:56 pm — Toss up — #4
A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows McCain and Obama in a "dead heat" in Colorado, just as Democrats gather for their national convention in Denver. More from PolitickerCO.com.

August 20, 2008 - 11:49 am — Toss up — #3

McCain's recent comments about renegotiating the Colorado River water compact has touched off a firestorm of debate and incensed some Colorado Republicans, including U.S. Senate candidate Bob Schaffer, who said, according to PolitickerCO.com: "Opening up the Colorado River water compact is a non-starter for Coloradans. It is the only protection we have from the more politically powerful downstream states on the Colorado River."

An editorial in The Denver Post said that "McCain's comments were thus not only political poison in Colorado, they displayed a disturbing ignorance of the realities of the West's scarce water resources."

August 19, 2008 - 2:58 pm — Toss up — #3

U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar said that Colorado voters will be the deciding factor on who will be elected president, according to PolitickerCO.com.

August 14, 2008 - 10:17 pm — Leans Democratic — #5

In the Wall Street Journal today, Karl Rove said Colorado is one of four battleground states in the 2008 presidential election.

Presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama, Rove said, will likely focus on picking up Virginia and -- especially -- Colorado, both of which have large numbers of white, college-educated voters -- a demographic that's been sympathetic to Obama.

Rove wrote that, of the two states, Obama is "best-positioned" to pick up Colorado. He noted that the Democratic National Convention will be held in Denver later this month, and alluded to the financial resources of Big Four Democratic donors Pat Stryker, Tim Gill, Rutt Bridges, and Jared Polis -- "mini-George Soroses," in Rove's words.

"Democrats win the state when they hold down GOP margins in rural districts, and appeal to swing women voters in Larimer County and the Denver suburbs," Rove wrote. "Mr. Obama lacks rural credentials, but he might make inroads in the suburbs."

As for presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, his "independence will help him in Colorado," Rove predicted.

August 14, 2008 - 10:09 pm — Leans Democratic — #5
PolitickerCO.com reports that a new Rasmussen Reports poll released Thursday shows the U.S. presidential race continuing to be neck-and-neck in Colorado.

The poll shows presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain leading Democratic opponent Barack Obama in Colorado  47 percent to 45 percent. With leaners, McCain's up 49 percent to 48 percent.

The poll, conducted Aug. 13 among 700 likely Colorado voters, has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

August 12, 2008 - 6:40 pm — Leans Democratic — #5
A new survey from Public Policy Polling shows Obama up over McCain, 44 percent to 48 percent. As PolitickerCO.com reports, Obama leads among Hispanics (51 percent to 36 percent) and independents (50 percent to 35 percent); McCain leads among white voters (48 percent to 46 percent).

August 11, 2008 - 4:30 pm — Leans Democratic — #5

The Wall Street Journal  has an opinion piece about how the issue of race and Obama's candidacy affects the 2008 presidential campaign in Colorado. The piece questions whether a new Colorado ballot measure could hurt the presumptive Democratic nominee . Colorado has a proposal on this fall's ballot that would ban the use of race in college admission, government hiring and contracting across the state.

August 10, 2008 - 9:28 pm — Leans Democratic — #5

Time Magazine explores Colorado's role as a swing state.

"In 2000 it was Florida, four years later it was Ohio — could the decisive swing state in the 2008 presidential election be Colorado?" the magazine asks. The story goes on to explain the roll that ballot initiatives might play.

August 8, 2008 - 5:46 pm — Leans Democratic — #5
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's Colorado campaign staff announced late Thursday afternoon that in the 24 hours since a distribution plan was announced for tickets to his acceptance speech on the final night of the Democratic National Convention, more than 60,000 applications from Coloradans had been received according to a report by Fox News.

August 5, 2008 - 12:25 pm

U.S. Sen. John McCain is coming back to Aspen on Aug. 14 and this time he is bringing his heavy hitters with him as reported in the Aspen Daily News. Some of the biggest fundraisers for McCain's Republican presidential campaign will be here a week from Thursday for a reception, dinner and campaign briefing with the candidate. PoliticsWest has a report that Gov. Bill Ritter said he is happy in his current job and definitively squashed the short-lived speculation that he could be picked as Barack Obama's running mate.

July 31, 2008 - 3:40 pm

The Quinnipiac University poll showed McCain ahead of Obama 46 percent to 44 percent. This is a turnaround from a month ago when the same survey found Obama leading 49 percent to 44 percent.

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