America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 3, 2008


Likely
Democratic
#16
U.S. President: New Mexico
Incumbent: George W. Bush (R)
Last Week's Rank: #16

2008 Candidates

John McCain (R)

U.S. Senator

Arizona

Barack Obama (D)

U.S. Senator

Illinois

About the Race

After years of national debate about immigration policy New Mexico might be the one state where the lingering issue could play out in the presidential race. This is a state with a growing Hispanic population and a popular Hispanic governor, Bill Richardson. If there was any doubt that New Mexico is a swing state consider that the last two presidential election were decided within a percentage point.

On immigration specifically both John McCain and Barack Obama support comprehensive reform that includes guest worker programs. There isn't much of a difference in policy or tone on this issue, but what matters is perception. This may well be a good test to see how the Republican brand is helped or hurt by the issue in this border state.

One factor that may well help Obama here is the open U.S. Senate race, in which Democrat Tom Udall has a solid lead.

The key to winning New Mexico is the aforementioned Hispanic population. Richardson was able to increase Democratic voter registration in 2004, and was in no doubt helped by the state Supreme Court that ruled identification was not required to be shown before voting. However, President Bush won this state because he was able to get 44 percent of the Hispanic vote.

Race Updates

November 7, 2008 - 9:47 am — Likely Democratic — #16
Obama won the state 57 percent to McCain’s 42 percent, according to The Washington Post.

October 31, 2008 - 12:23 pm — Leans Democratic — #14
Obama's lead has jumped to 17 points in Public Policy Polling's final survey of the state. He's now up 58 percent to 41 percent. The Democrat led by 6 points in the previous PPP poll, which was released in the middle of September.

October 30, 2008 - 11:46 am — Leans Democratic — #13
Obama has a 10-point lead in New Mexico in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll. He was up 55 percent to 42 percent in mid-October.

October 22, 2008 - 12:53 pm — Leans Democratic — #13
In early voting to date, 62 percent of those who have cast ballots have been Democrats and 38 percent have been Republicans, according to USA Today. More than a third of the country's voters are expected to vote before Election Day. In the last two cycles, early voting nationwide favored Republicans; experts said this was because early voters tended to be older and wealthier.

October 21, 2008 - 12:23 pm — Leans Democratic — #13
Two top McCain strategists and advisers anonymously told CNN that the possibility of winning New Mexico is not promising. "Gone," one insider said of New Mexico and two other swing states.

October 17, 2008 - 12:17 pm — Leans Democratic — #11

Obama leads 51.2 percent to 43.5 percent in the latest Zogby survey of the state.


Biden is scheduled to appear in Mesilla on Friday afternoon.

October 16, 2008 - 12:48 pm — Leans Democratic — #11
Obama has his biggest lead of the campaign in New Mexico in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll. The Democrat is attracting 55 percent, while his opponent is getting 42 percent. A week ago, he led only 49 percent to 44 percent.

October 15, 2008 - 12:54 pm — Leans Democratic — #11
The latest SurveyUSA poll in New Mexico has Obama leading by 7 points, 52 percent to 45 percent. The results are almost identical to the previous two polls of the state, whcih were released two and four weeks ago.

October 6, 2008 - 12:43 pm — Toss up — #4
In a new poll conducted by Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal, Obama leads 45 percent to 40 percent in the state, according to The Associated Press. Fourteen percent of voters said they were undecided.

October 3, 2008 - 4:34 pm — Toss up — #4
The latest Rasmussen Repots poll in New Mexico shows Obama leading by 5 points in the state, 49 percent to 44 percent. A month ago, McCain was up by 2 points.

October 2, 2008 - 12:52 pm — Toss up — #5
A new SurveyUSA poll shows Obama leading McCain 52 percent to 44 percent in New Mexico. The previous SurveyUSA poll in the state, released two weeks ago, had the same results.

September 23, 2008 - 2:35 pm — Toss up — #5
In a new Public Policy Polling survey, Obama is up 53 percent to 42 percent.

September 18, 2008 - 1:03 pm — Toss up — #5
Obama is appearing Thursday in Espanola.

September 15, 2008 - 11:22 am — Toss up — #6
A Rasmussen Poll last week shows McCain with a lead within the margin of error last week, though the political environment in this state -- particularly a strong Democratic win for an open Senate seat -- will help Obama.

September 11, 2008 - 1:12 pm — Toss up — #6
McCain is beting Obama in a New Mexico Rasmussen Reports poll for the first time all year. A telephone survey shows McCain with 49 perent and Obama with 47 percent.

September 8, 2008 - 7:05 pm — Toss up — #6

McCain and running mate Sarah Palin ended their two-day swing through Albuquerque on Sept. 7. The pair spoke to a crowd of thousands Saturday night, but their only appearance Sunday surprised just a few dozen people having lunch according to KOAT TV.

September 3, 2008 - 11:33 am — Toss up — #6
The Obama campaign Monday announced that Michelle Obama will make a campaign visit to New Mexico on Sept. 4. Obama will make two stops in the state, one in Albuquerque and one in Santa Fe according to KRQE TV.

August 19, 2008 - 3:06 pm — Toss up — #5

Obama made a swing through Albuquerque today and told hundreds of supporters that an "economic disaster" is upon the country and they need to vote for him to change the policies of the last eight years, reports the El Paso Times.

August 8, 2008 - 5:41 pm — Toss up — #4

CQ Politics has an analysis of New Mexico as a conservative-leaning battleground state where Democrats have made serious progress after years of Republican advantages. As one of just three states that flipped from one party in 2000 to the other in 2004, New Mexico (and Iowa) went from narrowly favoring Al Gore over Bush in the first contest to choosing Bush over John Kerry in the second, while New Hampshire did the reverse. National polling this summer has showed Obama pulling support from upward of two-thirds of Hispanics in his race against McCain. He is aided in New Mexico by the early and strong support he drew from Gov. Bill Richardson.

August 5, 2008 - 12:23 pm

National Republicans and Democrats have infused hundreds of thousands of dollars into Colorado and New Mexico in an effort to secure their critical 14 electoral votes, according to the Denver Post. In the past three months, the Republican parties in both states received just under $1 million total, and the Democrats have netted $759,976 from national party political arms and victory funds set up by the presidential candidates.

July 31, 2008 - 3:40 pm
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson campaigned for Barack Obama over the weekend and he announced he will hold several fundraising events to help pay off U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign debt. A poll last week from the Pew Hispanic Center showed 66 percent of Hispanic voters supported Obama, compared with 23 percent for McCain.

Receive e-mail updates on this race

Comments

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd> <blockquote> <b> <i> <p> <br> <span> <img> <h1> <h2> <h3> <h4> <h5> <h6>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Images can be added to this post.

More information about formatting options