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About the Pindell Report


America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 3, 2008


Leans
Democratic
#32
NY-29
Incumbent: Randy Kuhl (R)
Last Week's Rank: #32

2008 Candidates

Randy Kuhl (R)

Congressman

Eric Massa (D)

Retired Navy Officer

About the Race

CANDIDATES: U.S. Rep. Randy Kuhl, a Republican, is running for a third term. Retired Navy officer Eric Massa, who unsuccessfully ran in 2006, is the Democratic candidate. Kuhl carried the seat in 2006 with 51 percent. George W. Bush won the district in 2004 with 56 percent.

RACE PROFILE: It is not good news for Kuhl that he is trailing his 2006 opponent Massa in fundraising. Through March, Massa raised over $200,000 more than Kuhl. That said, Kuhl spent more than the incumbent in their 2006 face off and Kuhl managed to hold on, winning every county in the district, which runs from Rochester south to the Pennsylvania border, except for one. This is a district with a conservative voting record and Massa won’t have an easy time dispatching Kuhl.

Race Updates

November 7, 2008 - 12:25 am — Leans Democratic — #32

With 100 percent of the precincts reporting, Massa has defeated Kuhl 51 percent to 49 percent.

October 29, 2008 - 11:56 pm — Leans Democratic — #23

“Republicans who Care” has a new television advertisement praising Kuhl.

Massa has a new television advertisement hitting Kuhl on Medicare.

The Buffalo News has endorsed Massa.

The Elmira Star-Gazette has endorsed Kuhl.

October 24, 2008 - 12:39 am — Leans Democratic — #26

Kuhl is getting attention for saying that congressional Democrats "want people to suffer in order to improve their party's political fortunes."

October 22, 2008 - 1:03 pm — Leans Democratic — #26

The Rochester Democrat & Chronicle has endorsed Kuhl.

October 19, 2008 - 9:58 pm — Leans Democratic — #25
A poll conducted for Kuhl shows the Republican leading Massa 40 percent to 30 percent. The survey of 300 likely voters, conducted Oct. 10, has an error margin of 5.7 percent.

October 16, 2008 - 5:56 pm — Leans Democratic — #25

Kuhl and Massa clashed over the economy in an Oct. 13 debate.

October 13, 2008 - 3:29 pm — Leans Republican — #24

Massa raised $462 in third quarter, his campaign reports.

October 13, 2008 - 3:20 pm — Leans Republican — #24

A Research 2000 poll shows Massa leading Kuhl 49 percent to 42 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters, conducted Oct. 7-8, has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

October 7, 2008 - 10:41 pm — Leans Republican — #24

A poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee finds Massa leading Kuhl 47 percent to 42 percent. The survey of 403 likely voters, conducted Oct. 2-4, has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

September 11, 2008 - 12:13 pm — Leans Republican — #21

Massa released his second television advertisement on Sept. 9. The challenges Kuhl on the energy issue.

September 8, 2008 - 11:13 am — Leans Republican — #21

Kilroy released a television advertisement on Aug. 27 hitting Stivers on his connections to oil companies.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $56,218 on independent expenditures in the district between Aug. 20 and Aug. 26. The committee has spent $125,660 in the district in total.

The National Republican Congressional Committe has announced that it has reserved over $800,000 in advertising time in the district.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $54,973 on independent expenditures in the district between Aug. 27 and Sept. 2. The committee has spent $180,633 in the district in total.

September 8, 2008 - 11:13 am — Leans Republican — #21

Pre-primary fundraising reports covering Jul. 1 – Aug. 20 show Kuhl collecting $117,174 and having $571,555 in cash on hand. Massa took in $210,025 and has $534,262 on hand. 

August 13, 2008 - 10:36 pm — Leans Republican — #21

Kuhl began airing a new television advertisement focusing on offshore drilling on Aug. 12.

August 12, 2008 - 5:51 pm — Leans Republican — #21

Kuhl has launched his first television advertisement of the campaign. The spot hits House Democrats on the issue of gas prices, Politico reports.

August 11, 2008 - 6:14 pm — Leans Republican — #21

Massa has called for a special summer House session to deal with gas prices.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has announced its initial purchase of advertising time in the district, part of a $200,000 buy in districts nationwide.

August 7, 2008 - 2:33 pm — Leans Republican — #21
As Politicker.com reports, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will begin airing ads in the district combating the conservative advocacy organization Freedom's Watch.

August 6, 2008 - 5:58 pm

On Aug. 5, conservative advocacy organization Freedom's Watch announced it was airing a radio ad targeting Massa.

July 21, 2008 - 10:47 pm

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced today that it reserved $2.7 million in combined advertising time in the district and NY-25 and NY-26. The purchase is part of a 51-district nationwide ad buy on the part of the committee.

July 16, 2008 - 12:43 am

Fundraising reports show Kuhl taking in around $334,000 in second-quarter funds, and having approximately $619,000 in the bank. Massa raised roughly $300,000, and has around $652,000 in cash on hand.

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