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Last Updated: November 3, 2008


Likely
Democratic
#55
AK-At Large
Incumbent: Don Young (R)
Last Week's Rank: #55

2008 Candidates

Don Young (R)

Congressman

Ethan Berkowitz (D)

Former State House Minority Leader

About the Race

RACE PROFILE: Alaska's At-Large U.S. Rep. Don Young is far from the most high profile person to be implicated in a wide ranging federal investigation of Alaska's politicians -- that would be Sen. Ted Stevens -- but he is the most likely of them all to lose this year.

Young has served as the state's only Congressman since 1973. He won a special election that year after the man who defeated him in November of 1972, Nick Begich, died in a plane crash. His plane went down in October, but was still elected weeks later. Interestingly Begich's son is now the mayor of Anchorage and is challenging Stevens for the Senate.

Young, however, faces Ethan Berkowitz, the former state house Minority Leader and the 2006 nominee for Lt. Governor.
This race was defined by a tough late August Republican primary where Young was challenged by the sitting Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell. Parnell, aided by his boss Gov. Sarah Palin, came within just a few hundred votes of winning. He didn't concede until three weeks later. For Parnell the political environment has changed since Palin joined the McCain ticket. His decision not to even contest the primary might be due to the fact that by losing the Congressional primary he could be setting himself up for a more powerful job of governor if McCain and Palin win.

As for the Young-Berkowitz contest there are two dynamics at play. First, is the fact that polling suggests that Palin is helping fellow Republicans more in Alaska that anywhere else. Second, is the outcome of Stevens's trial, which is set to begin in late September.

Even after Palin was picked, Berkowitz saw his lead in polling slim a bit, but he is still up by double digits.

Race Updates

November 6, 2008 - 7:02 pm — Likely Democratic — #55

With 99 percent of the precincts reporting, Young has defeated Berkowitz 52 percent to 44 percent.

November 4, 2008 - 1:15 pm — Likely Democratic — #55
A Research 200 poll finds Berkowitz leading Young 53 percent to 44 percent. The survey of 600 likely voters, conducted Oct. 28-30, has an error margin of 4 percent.

October 24, 2008 - 12:31 am — Leans Democratic — #49

A poll conducted by the Democratic-leaning Ivan Moore Research finds Berkowitz leading Young 51 percent to 43 percent. The survey of 500 likely voters, conducted Oct. 17-19, has an error margin of 4.4 percent.

October 22, 2008 - 1:05 pm — Leans Democratic — #47

A Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos shows Berkowitz leading Young 50 percent to 44 percent. The survey of 600 likely voters, conducted Oct. 14-16, has an error margin of 4 percent.

October 19, 2008 - 9:49 pm — Leans Democratic — #46

Young defended "confrontational" legislative style in an Oct. 16 debate.

October 13, 2008 - 1:09 pm — Leans Democratic — #40

A Democratic Ivan Moore Research poll finds Berkowitz leading Young 51 percent to 42 percent. The survey of 500 likely voters, conducted Oct. 3-6, has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

October 7, 2008 - 10:34 pm — Leans Democratic — #40

Young and Berkowitz clashed over oil drilling in an Oct. 6 debate.

October 2, 2008 - 11:25 pm — Leans Democratic — #31

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a new television advertisement taking aim at Young on the issue of earmarks.

September 29, 2008 - 11:55 am — Leans Democratic — #31

An Ivan Moore Research poll shows the Democrat leading Young 49 percent to 44 percent. The survey of 500 likely voters, conducted Sept. 20-Sept. 22, has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

September 26, 2008 - 10:05 pm — Leans Democratic — #31

A Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. PublicMind poll finds Berkowitz leading Young 47 percent to 41 percent. The survey of 601 likely voters, conducted 601 likely voters, has a margin of error of 4 percent.

September 25, 2008 - 12:16 am — Leans Democratic — #31

The Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund is out with a television advertisement targeting Young on the environment.

September 23, 2008 - 12:33 am — Leans Democratic — #31

A Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos shows Berkowitz leading Young 53 percent to 39 percent. The survey of 600 likely voters, conducted Sept. 15-Sept. 17, has a margin of error of 4 percent.

September 18, 2008 - 9:14 pm — Leans Democratic — #31

Young has been named the official victor of the GOP primary.

September 15, 2008 - 11:42 am — Toss up — #12
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $33,851 in the district between Sept. 3 and Sept. 10. The committee has spent $106,267 in the district in total.

September 11, 2008 - 2:25 pm — Toss up — #12

Even with fellow Alaska Republican Sarah Palin becoming a national darling, locally there are no coattails for embattled Young.

It probably doesn't help with Palin has been quoted as saying she refuses to endorse him.

A new independent Ivan Moore poll, conducted during the Republican National Convention, shows Young badly trailing Berkowitz 54 percent to 37 percent. That is a growing gap from when the 10 point lead Berkowitz had a month prior.

September 11, 2008 - 12:23 pm — Toss up — #12

Young said in a Sept. 9 press conference that he expects to be the GOP nominee. He also said he had not spoken to Parnell and likely won’t until after the final ballots have been counted.

September 8, 2008 - 5:41 pm — Toss up — #12

An Anchorage Press/KTUU-TV/KENI-AM poll finds Berkowitz leading Young by a 54 percent to 37 percent margin in a prospective general election matchup. Parnell leads Berkowitz 49 percent to 38 percent. The survey of 500 likely voters, conducted Aug. 30 – Sept. 2, has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

September 8, 2008 - 11:32 am — Toss up — #12
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $36,208 on independent expenditures in the district between Aug. 20 and Aug. 26. The committee has spent $72,416 in the district in total.

September 7, 2008 - 11:22 pm — Toss up — #11
Young's ever-so slim primary vote lead from Aug. 26 continued to grow over the weekend as election workers in Alaska counted overseas and absentee ballots. Overseas absentee ballots will be continued to be accepted until Sept. 10, the Anchorage Daily News reports.

August 22, 2008 - 12:34 am — Toss up — #11

The Club for Growth released a television advertisement on Aug. 19 targeting Young.

August 22, 2008 - 12:34 am — Toss up — #11

Club for Growth, which is backing Parnell, released a poll Aug. 19 showing Parnell leading Young by a 44 percent to 42 percent margin. The survey of 300 likely Republican voters, conducted Aug. 18, has a margin of error of 5.7 percent.

August 22, 2008 - 12:17 am — Toss up — #11

The DCCC is reporting that is has spent $36,208 in the district this week, its first set of independent expenditures.

August 22, 2008 - 12:17 am — Toss up — #11

The Republicans candidates debated on Aug 20, with Young calling Parnell a political novice and Parnell firing back that Young wanted to raise the federal gas tax.

August 20, 2008 - 1:14 pm — Toss up — #11

Pre-primary fundraising reports show Young taking in $84,000 between Jul. 1 and Aug. 6 and having $367,000 in cash on hand. Parnell collected $182,000 and had $66,000 on hand. Berkowitz collected $76,000 and had $95,660 in the bank.

August 19, 2008 - 6:57 am — Toss up — #11

That sound you just heard was of national Republicans sighing as they took in one poll after another showing Parnell failing to close the gap with Young. It didn't get much better after Parnell's subpar debate performance last week. It's going to be an interesting final week in this hotly contested primary, with some Republicans arguing that Young is the only candidate who can bring home the bacon for Alaskans and others arguing -- correctly -- that Parnell is the only candidate who has a better than decent shot at holding the seat this fall.

August 18, 2008 - 12:03 pm — Toss up — #11

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is spending about $18,000 in mailings targeting Young and Parnell.

August 15, 2008 - 12:41 pm — Toss up — #11

A new poll shows Young leading Parnell by a 46 percent to 40 percent margin with LeDoux picking up 7 percent. In a prospective general election matchup Berkowitz leads Young by a 51 percent to 41 percent margin while Parnell leads Berkowitz by a 46 percent to 42 percent margin. The poll of 501 registered voters, conducted Aug. 9-12, has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

August 14, 2008 - 2:48 am — Toss up — #11

Parnell is unveiling a television advertisement spotlighting his support from Gov. Sarah Palin, Roll Call reports.

August 13, 2008 - 10:34 pm — Toss up — #11

The Club for Growth began airing a new television advertisement targeting Young on Aug. 13. The ad buy totals $350,000 and will run through Aug. 26.

August 12, 2008 - 5:28 pm — Toss up — #11

A poll conducted for Parnell's campaign finds Parnell leading Young by a 42 percent to 38 percent margin. LeDoux picked up 8 percent. The survey of 300 voters, conducted Aug. 5, has a margin of error of 5.7 percent.

August 11, 2008 - 7:33 pm — Toss up — #11

A Democratic-commissioned poll finds Young leading Parnell by a 46 percent to 38 percent margin. In a prospective general election matchup, Berkowitz leads Young by a 52 percent to 37 percent margin and leads Parnell by a 43 percent to 40 percent margin. The survey of 505 likely voters, conducted July 18-July 22, has a margin of error of 6.2 percent.

August 6, 2008 - 6:26 pm

Republicans met for two heated televised debates on Aug. 4.

August 1, 2008 - 2:12 am
If there was one race to watch this week, it is this one. After the Sen. Ted Stevens indictment, a big question was whether Parnell would leave the race to run for Senate. On July 31, he answered that question: No. With the VECO cloud still hanging over Young's head, Parnell is the narrow primary favorite and his presence in the contest ensures that Democrats will have a tough time picking up the seat. But, as the independently-conducted poll out this week shows, a Berkowitz-Parnell general election matchup is highly competitive.

July 30, 2008 - 1:39 pm

On July 25, Young's campaign pulled a television advertisement that improperly claimed that the Taxpayers for Common Sense had awarded him a "Hero of the Taxpayers" award.  

A Hays Research Group poll conducted July 24-July 25 finds Parnell leading Young by a 46 percent to 42 percent margin with 12 percent undecided. In a prospective general election matchup Berkowitz leads Parnell by a 33 percent to 30 percent margin with 37 percent undecided. The poll of 704 adults has a margin of error of 7.4 percent.

July 21, 2008 - 10:14 pm

A Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos shows Berkowitz leading in a prospective general election matchup against Young. The survey, which was conducted July 14-16 and has a margin of error of 4 percent, shows Berkowitz leading Young by a 51 percent to 40 percent margin. The poll shows Berkowitz with a 52 percent favorability rating and Young with a 37 percent favorability.

July 16, 2008 - 12:03 am

Fundraising reports show Young taking in around $109,000 in second-quarter funds, and having approximately $461,000 in the bank. LaDoux raised roughly $200,000, including a $157,000 personal loan, and has around $289,000 in cash on hand. Parnell garnered $266,000, and has roughly $208,000 in the bank. Berkowitz raised $227,000, and has approximately $399,000 in cash on hand. Benson took in $53,000, and has roughly $47,000 in cash on hand.

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