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About the Pindell Report


America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 3, 2008


Leans
Democratic
#48
NC-8
Incumbent: Robin Hayes (R)
Last Week's Rank: #48

2008 Candidates

Robin Hayes (R)

Congressman

Larry Kissell (D)

Educator

About the Race

CANDIDATES: Republican U.S. Rep. Robin Hayes is running for a sixth term. Teacher and 2006 nominee Larry Kissell is the Democratic candidate; electrician Thomas Hill is the Libertarian candidate. Hayes carried the seat with 50 percent in 2006. George W. Bush won the district in 2004 with 54 percent.

RACE PROFILE: Democrats nearly caught Hayes asleep at the switch in 2006. In the end, social studies teacher Larry Kissell came within 329 votes of knocking off the Concord Republican. Had the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee taken Kissell's challenge more seriously, the outcome may well have been different. This time around, Democrats are taking the race seriously. But so is Hayes. At the end of June, Hayes had a nearly $1 million lead in cash on hand. Also playing to Hayes's advantage is that the district, which stretches between Charlotte and Fayetteville, leans Republican, with Bush winning 54 percent in 2000 and 2004. Hayes has the edge.

Race Updates

November 7, 2008 - 12:26 am — Leans Democratic — #48

With 100 percent of the precincts reporting, Kissell has defeated Hayes 55 percent to 45 percent.

October 22, 2008 - 4:40 pm — Leans Democratic — #6

Hayes is getting attention for telling a crowd at a campaign event, "liberals hate real Americans that work and achieve and believe in God."

October 20, 2008 - 5:40 pm — Leans Democratic — #6

CHANGED FROM TOSSUP TO LEANS DEMOCRATIC

Republicans used to express confidence about this race, but today Even GOP-sponsored polls are showing this race within the margin of error. What happened? The financial crisis. The district is economically struggling and could well take out its anger on the Republican in office. Another factor: Kissell is no stronger a fundraiser this time around as he was in 2006. But national Democrats – this time – are investing in the race. It could be a perfect storm for Robin Hayes. 

October 19, 2008 - 10:00 pm — Toss up — #13

Hayes has reported raising $643,000 in third quarter funds and having $1.1 million in cash on hand while Kissell raised $423,000 and has $250,000.

The Charlotte Observer has endorsed Kissell.

October 13, 2008 - 3:26 pm — Toss up — #12
Hayes raised over $670,000 in third quarter funds, his campaign reports.

October 7, 2008 - 10:42 pm — Toss up — #12

VFW PAC has endorsed Hayes.

October 6, 2008 - 1:09 pm — Leans Republican — #46

A poll conducted for Hayes's campaign shows the Republican leading Kissell 46 percent to 43 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters, conducted Sept. 23-25, has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

October 6, 2008 - 12:41 pm — Leans Republican — #46

A poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shows Kissell leading Hayes 54 percent to 43 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters, conducted Sept. 28-29, has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

October 1, 2008 - 4:22 pm — Leans Republican — #46
Hayes is up with a television advertisement accusing Kissell of denying his workers healthcare benefits.

October 1, 2008 - 11:19 am — Leans Republican — #46

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is up with a new television advertisement hitting Hayes on the economy.

September 15, 2008 - 11:20 am — Leans Republican — #32

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $20,632 in the district between Sept. 3 and Sept. 10, the committee’s first independent expenditures in the district.

September 11, 2008 - 5:03 pm — Leans Republican — #32

Hayes won the endorsement of the North Carolina Troopers Association on Sept. 10.

September 10, 2008 - 12:24 am — Leans Republican — #32

Hayes released a new television advertisement on Sept. 9 taking aim at Kissell on energy.

August 15, 2008 - 11:05 am — Leans Republican — #32

A poll conducted for Hayes's campaign has Hayes leading Kissell by a 50 percent to 40 percent margin. The survey of 400 likely voters, conducted Aug. 4-5, has a margin of error of 4.4 percent. 

August 4, 2008 - 5:35 pm

Kissell is set to begin airing his first television ad on Aug. 5. The spot focuses on gas prices.

July 25, 2008 - 12:11 pm

Second-quarter fundraising reports show Hayes raising $473,763 and having almost $1.2 million on hand. Kissell raised $178,769 and has $231,583 in the bank.

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Comments

What is Good for the Goose is Good for the Gander

posted by MGarr

And so now we know, "it did not come out wrong."

I have just made a donation to the campaign of Larry Kissel, Democratic candidate for the North Carolina Eighth District.

http://www.actblue.com/entity/fundraisers/16138

As I did for the opponent of Rep. Michele Bachmann.

What is good for the goose is good for the gander.

10/21/08 5:22 pm

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