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About the Pindell Report


America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 3, 2008


Leans
Democratic
#36
MI-7
Incumbent: Tim Walberg (R)
Last Week's Rank: #36

2008 Candidates

Tim Walberg (R)

Congressman

Mark Schauer (D)

State Senate Minority Leader

About the Race

RACE PROFILE: It is a significant problem for the first-term incumbent Walberg that Schauer has established a fundraising lead in the race. Through June, Schauer had raised over $100,000 more than the incumbent and had a $70,000 lead in cash on hand. What is perhaps just as concerning for Walberg, a former state legislator who has also worked as a minister, is that Schauer, the state Senate minority leader and former state Representative, is a major political player in the Wolverine State. Schauer will first have to get by Reiner in Democratic primary, though Schauer, who has won the support of party leaders, is widely seen as the frontrunner in this southern Michigan seat which runs from Battle Creek to the edges of Lansing and Ann Arbor.

Walberg, a Club for Growth conservative, won his seat in 2006 after ousting moderate Republican U.S. Rep. Joe Schwartz. But, in a marginally conservative district, could Walberg fall prey to a credible and moderate-minded Democrat?

ANALYSIS: We have now seen several Democratic polls showing Schauer leading go unanswered. There is a good reason for that: Walberg appears poised to be the victim of a Democratic tide. For the first time, this race becomes Leans Democrat.

Race Updates

November 6, 2008 - 11:56 pm — Leans Democratic — #36
With 100 percent of the precincts reporting, Schauer has defeated Walberg 49 percent to 46 percent.

November 4, 2008 - 1:27 pm — Leans Democratic — #36

The Club for Growth has increased its ad buy in the district another $100,000.

October 29, 2008 - 6:56 pm — Leans Democratic — #33

The Lansing State Journal has endorsed Schauer.

The Lenawee Daily-Telegram has endorsed Walberg.

October 19, 2008 - 9:32 pm — Leans Democratic — #24

The Club for Growth has announced that it is adding $230,000 to its advertising buy the district.

October 13, 2008 - 1:00 pm — Toss up — #10

A poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shows Schauer leading Walberg 43 percent to 35 percent. The survey of 402 likely voters, conducted Oct. 6-7, has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

Walberg and Schauer sparred over the bailout bill in an Oct. 7 debate.

Walberg is out with a new television advertisement hitting Schauer for his support from filmmaker Michael Moore. 

October 13, 2008 - 1:00 pm — Toss up — #10

A poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shows Schauer leading Walberg 43 percent to 35 percent. The survey of 402 likely voters, conducted Oct. 6-7, has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

Walberg and Schauer sparred over the bailout bill in an Oct. 7 debate.

Walberg is out with a new television advertisement hitting Schauer for his support from filmmaker Michael Moore. 

October 7, 2008 - 10:27 pm — Toss up — #10

A poll conducted for Schauer's campaign shows the Democrat leading Walberg 46 percent to 36 percent. The survey of 500 likely voters, conducted Oct. 5-6, has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

The National Republican Congressional Committee is targeting Schauer in a new television advertisement over his tenure in the state Senate.

October 2, 2008 - 11:21 pm — Toss up — #10

Former Rep. Joe Schwarz, a Republican, endorsed Schauer, the Democratic nominee. The endorsement comes after the Club for Growth’s entrance into the race. The conservative organization played a key role in toppling Schwartz in his 2006 GOP primary loss to Walberg.

October 1, 2008 - 4:12 pm — Toss up — #10

The Club for Growth is targeting Schauer in a new television advertisement.

September 29, 2008 - 11:48 am — Toss up — #10

A poll conducted for Schauer’s campaign shows the Democrat leading Walberg 42 percent to 36 percent. The survey of 500 likely voters, conducted Sept. 24-Sept. 25, has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

A poll for Walberg’s campaign shows the Republican leading Schauer 50 percent to 40 percent. The survey of 300 likely voters, conducted Sept. 15- Sept. 16, has a margin of error of 5.7 percent.

September 15, 2008 - 6:34 pm — Toss up — #11
Schauer is up with a new television advertisement spotlighting his ability to bring jobs to the district.

September 8, 2008 - 11:02 am — Toss up — #11

The Republican Congressional Committee has announced that it has reserved $832,000 in advertising time in the district.

Walberg released a new television advertisement on Sept. 2 hitting Schauer on taxes.

September 7, 2008 - 11:17 pm — Toss up — #10
After being hit by television ads by the Walberg campaign, Schauer has launched his own television ads in the district focusing on the lawmaker's efforts to keep jobs in the state, The Ann Arbor News reports.

August 28, 2008 - 6:39 pm — Toss up — #11

A poll conducted by EPIC-MRA shows Walberg leading Schauer by a 42 percent to 40 percent margin. The survey of 400 likely voters, conducted Aug. 19 - Aug. 21, has a margin of 4.9 percent.

August 19, 2008 - 4:26 pm — Toss up — #10

According to the Jackson Citizen-Patriot, Walberg was set to pump gas for drivers in Jackson. Meanwhile, Schauer continued his calls for Walberg to pledge to end the use of robocalls by his campaign and by third parties in the 7th Congressional District.

August 16, 2008 - 12:59 pm — Toss up — #10
As the Battle Creek Enquirer reports, Schauer called on Walberg's campaign to cease robocalls for the duration of the campaign, just as a series of negative attack robocalls started last week. The calls are coming from Freedom's Watch, an independent conservative advocacy organization. Walberg's campaign responded by saying Schauer should ask the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to pull $1.5 million worth of negative ads targeted for the district.

August 15, 2008 - 12:00 am — Toss up — #10

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's independent expenditure arm reports it has spent $26,220 in the district and $13,110 this week.

August 14, 2008 - 11:59 pm — Toss up — #10

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's independent expenditure arm reports it has spent $39,731 in the district.

August 11, 2008 - 6:28 pm — Toss up — #10

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has announced its initial purchase of $40,000 advertising time in the district, part of a $200,000 buy in districts nationwide.

August 7, 2008 - 2:27 pm — Toss up — #8

As Politicker.com reports, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will begin airing ads in the district combating Freedom's Watch.

August 6, 2008 - 6:18 pm

Walberg began airing a television advertisement on Aug. 6 focusing on gas prices.

August 6, 2008 - 5:39 pm

On Aug. 5, the conservative advocacy organization Freedom's Watch announced it was airing a radio ad targeting Schauer.

August 6, 2008 - 12:44 am
Schauer beat organic farmer Sharon Renier in the Aug. 5 Democratic primary by a wide margin. According to the Associated Press, Schauer got 65.6 percent of the vote with 91 percent of precincts reporting. The Lansing State Journal reported that Rener had said she would not endorse the state Senate minority leader if he advanced to take on Walberg in the general election.

August 1, 2008 - 2:26 pm

Schauer was on the receiving end of a small contribution from Democratic philanthropist Jon Stryker, the founder of the liberal-leaning Coalition for Progress. The PAC has generated roughly $2 million over this election cycle.

July 25, 2008 - 10:55 am

Second-quarter fundraising reports released today show Schauer outraising Walberg. Schauer raised $427,000 during the quarter while Walberg took in $365,000. As of July 16, Walberg had $855,000 on hand to Schauer's $929,000.

July 23, 2008 - 7:07 pm

The independent progressive organization Patriot Majority announced it would begin airing television advertisements targeting Walberg as part of a nationwide campaign against House and Senate Republicans. The ad takes Walberg to task for voting against authorization of Head Start.

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Comments

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Tight Race

posted by Ted Phillip

Yes this is a tight race, however I am losing trust in Mark Schauer and he appears to be too anti-family for my voting family.

http://www.squidoo.com/markschauer

10/22/08 12:23 am

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