America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 3, 2008


Leans
Democratic
#22
NH-1
Incumbent: Carol Shea-Porter (D)
Last Week's Rank: #22

2008 Candidates

Carol Shea-Porter (D)

Congresswoman

Jeb Bradley (R)

Former Congressman

About the Race

RACE PROFILE: This race features both one of the nation's tightest general election contests as well as primary contests. Every election cycle seems to being at least one new member of Congress that is a total shock. In 2006, Shea-Porter was that candidate. In the lowest turnout primary in state history, Shea-Porter defeated the state House minority leader in the primary. She then went on to ride the Democratic wave and barely beat Bradley in the general election, something not even her own supporters could have predicted. The next day, Democratic National Committee Chair Howard Dean was touting victories and struggled to even remember her name. Her victory marked the first time in 22 years that a Democrat held the seat.
Two months after losing, Bradley made it known that he wanted his seat back. Viewed as a moderate, Bradley hoped the statement would clear a primary field. It didn't. In 2002, Bradley only became the nominee because he was the only moderate in a multiple candidate primary. Once in Congress, Bradley worked to ensure he voted the party line and conservative enough to head-off any future.

We are of two minds about Bradley's Sept. 9 primary victory over state Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen. On one hand, Bradley's more moderate tendencies are a better fit for the ideological makeup of the district. On the other hand, unlike Stephen, Bradley can be connected to the problems of Washington. That line of attack will help Democrats to neutralize GOP charges that Shea-Porter is part of a do-nothing Congress.

That Republicans had a hard-fought primary in the first place puts them in a tough spot. With just eight weeks until Election Day, the GOP is just now focusing its efforts on targeting Shea-Porter.

But Republicans have had success in this swing district in the past. Bush won pluralities here in 2000 and 2004 and prior to Shea-Porter's 2006 victory the GOP had control of the seat for 20 consecutive years. And Shea-Porter, despite her recent success on the fundraising front, is far from the smoothest and most able campaigner. When Shea-Porter, a former city chair of the Rochester Democratic Party, unseated Bradley she benefited from New Hampshire's now-defunct straight-ticket voting system. As a result, many voters still don't know who Shea-Porter is. Will they by the time November rolls around?

ANALYSIS: The outlook appears increasingly favorable for Shea-Porter, who stands to benefit from $2 million in Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee advertising. That’s five times as much as the National Republican Congressional Committee is investing in the district. Shea-Porter will also benefit from the presence on the ticket of Obama, who looks strong in the state.

 

Race Updates

November 6, 2008 - 7:06 pm — Leans Democratic — #22

 

With 96 percent of the precincts reporting, Shea-Porter has defeated Bradley 52 percent to 46 percent.

November 4, 2008 - 1:17 pm — Leans Democratic — #22

A Research 2000 poll finds Shea-Porter leading Bradley 49 to 42 percent. The survey of 300 likely voters, conducted Oct. 28-30, has an error margin of 5.7 percent.

A WMUR-TV/University of New Hampshire tracking poll finds Shea-Porter leading Bradley 46 percent to 41 percent. The survey of 425 likely voters, conducted Oct. 30 - Nov. 1, has an error margin of 4.8 percent.

November 1, 2008 - 12:32 pm — Leans Democratic — #20

A WMUR-TV/University of New Hampshire poll finds Shea-Porter leading Bradley 44 percent to 41 percent. The survey of 315 likely voters, conducted Oct. 27-29, has an error margin of 5.5 percent.

October 31, 2008 - 12:16 am — Leans Democratic — #20

A WMUR-TV/University of New Hampshire poll shows Shea-Porter leading Bradley 44 percent to 42 percent. The survey of 340 likely voters, conducted Oct. 26-28, has an error margin of 4.3 percent.

A WMUR-TV/University of New Hampshire poll shows Shea-Porter leading Bradley 50 percent to 37 percent. The survey of 329 likely voters, conducted Oct. 25-27, has an error margin of 5.4 percent.

October 29, 2008 - 9:05 pm — Leans Democratic — #18

A WMUR-TV/University of New Hampshire poll shows Shea-Porter leading Bradley 48 percent to 40 percent. The survey of 347 likely voters, conducted Oct. 24-26, has an error margin of 5.3 percent.

A Boston Globe poll finds Shea-Porter leading Bradley 44 percent to 39 percent. The survey of 358 likely voters, conducted Oct. 18-22, has an error margin of 5.2 percent.

The Concord Monitor has endorsed Shea-Porter.

October 24, 2008 - 12:29 am — Leans Democratic — #8

The Portsmouth Herald has endorsed Shea-Porter.

October 22, 2008 - 1:45 pm — Leans Democratic — #8

A Research 2000 poll finds Shea-Porter leading Bradley 48 percent to 43 percent. The survey of 300 likely voters, conducted Oct. 17-19, has an error margin of 5.7 percent.

October 20, 2008 - 5:55 pm — Leans Democratic — #8

CHANGED FROM TOSSUP TO LEANS DEMOCRATIC

New Hampshire will go for Obama, Democrat Jeanne Shaheen for Senate and popular Democratic Gov. John Lynch for re-election. Bradley has demonstrated no reason as to why his race or his candidacy is something different to consider in the face of a Democratic wave.  

October 19, 2008 - 9:57 pm — Toss up — #4
Shea-Porter and Bradley clashed in an Oct. 16 debate over the bailout package.

October 19, 2008 - 1:05 pm — Toss up — #4
The National Republican Congressional Committee has a new television advertisement hitting Shea-Porter on foreclosure.

October 13, 2008 - 2:57 pm — Toss up — #3

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved more than $2 million in advertising time for Shea-Porter, PolitickerNH.com reports.

Shea-Porter has won the endorsement of the Veterans of Foreign Wars PAC.

October 7, 2008 - 10:29 pm — Toss up — #3

A St. Anselm College poll finds Shea-Porter leading Bradley 42 percent to 35 percent. The survey of 411 likely voters, conducted Sept. 25-30, has a margin of error of 4.8 percent.

September 29, 2008 - 11:50 am — Toss up — #3

A Research 2000 poll shows Shea-Porter leading Bradley 44 percent to 43 percent. The survey of 300 likely voters, conducted Sept. 22-Sept. 24, has a margin of error of 5.7 percent.

September 26, 2008 - 10:02 pm — Toss up — #3

A WMUR-TV/Granite State Poll finds Bradley leading Shea-Porter 45 percent to 42 percent. The survey of 252 likely voters, conducted Sept. 14 – Sept. 21, has a margin of error of 6.2 percent.

September 25, 2008 - 12:15 am — Toss up — #3

Bradley went up with a new television advertisement on Sept. 20 hitting Shea-Porter on gas prices.

September 18, 2008 - 9:13 pm — Toss up — #3

As PolitickerNH.com reports, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is up with a television advertisement taking aim at Bradley for his record in Congress.

September 9, 2008 - 11:51 pm — Toss up — #5

As PolitickerNH.com reports, Bradley defeated John Stephen in the Sept. 9 primary to earn a spot in the general election against Shea-Porter.

September 8, 2008 - 11:27 am — Toss up — #5

As PolitickerNH.com reports, Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta has endorsed Stephen.

Pre-primary fundraising reports covering Jul. 1 - Aug. 20 show Shea-Porter collecting $80,706 and having $675,115 in cash on hand. Stephen took in $16,660 and has $45,327 on hand. Bradley collected $76,590 and has $360,588 on hand.

As PolitickerNH.com reports, the Portsmouth Herald endorsed Stephen on Sept. 2.

September 5, 2008 - 3:26 pm — Toss up — #5
Bradley and Stephen debated each other on Sept. 4 in Manchester. PolitickerNH.com has the blow-by-blow of the hour-long event, aired on WMUR.

September 2, 2008 - 11:13 am — Toss up — #5
The Portsmouth Herald endorsed John Stephen and the Foster's Daily Democrat endorsed John Stephen a week ahead of the primary.

August 21, 2008 - 12:03 pm — Toss up — #5
As PolitickerNH.com reports, the final debate before the primary both Bradley and Stephen stressed their ability to beat Shea-Porter and they bickered over Congressional earmarks.

August 19, 2008 - 11:55 am — Toss up — #5

As PolitickerNH.com reports, Shea-Porter has released her first television ad of the cycle. Stephen meanwhile is airing an ad targeting Bradley.

August 18, 2008 - 11:59 am — Toss up — #5

As PolitickerNH.com reports, U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas) stumped for Shea-Porter on Aug. 18.

August 14, 2008 - 10:53 am — Toss up — #5

As PolitickerNH.com reports, Stephen has started airing his first radio advertisement. The spot features former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson.

August 13, 2008 - 12:57 pm — Toss up — #5

As PolitickerNH.com reports, Shea-Porter has won the endorsement of the League of Conservation Voters.

August 12, 2008 - 5:27 pm — Toss up — #5

As PolitickerNH.com reports, Bradley and Stephen participated in a heated debate on Aug. 11.

August 11, 2008 - 5:55 pm — Toss up — #5

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has announced its initial purchase of advertising time in the district, part of a $200,000 buy in districts nationwide.

August 10, 2008 - 10:45 pm — Toss up — #5
The Union Leader has endorsed Stephen for the Republican nomination in the 1st Congressional District.

August 9, 2008 - 2:59 pm — Toss up — #5

Make no mistake: the news this week that John Boehner is holding a fundraiser for Bradley is proof that national Republicans are taking sides in the hotly contested primary. But will that help Bradley or will it allow Stephen an opening to present Bradley as the Washington candidate and himself as the change candidate?

Remember that in 2006 when Washington Democrats meddled with the primary in this same seat it turned the race around -- for the upstart challenger. 

August 8, 2008 - 11:57 am — Toss up — #5

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) is set to hold an Aug. 14 fundraiser for Bradley in Bedford.

August 7, 2008 - 2:30 pm — Toss up — #5
As Politicker.com reports, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will begin airing ads in the district combating Freedom's Watch.

August 6, 2008 - 6:10 pm

On Aug. 5, the conservative advocay organization Freedom's Watch announced it was airing a radio ad targeting Shea-Porter.

August 1, 2008 - 2:25 pm

On July 22, Politico released a list of the five most-vulnerable Democratic incumbents that included Shea-Porter. And on Aug. 1, conservative website Granite Grok announced its endorsement of Bradley over the rest of the conservative field. Read more on PolitickerNH.com.

July 23, 2008 - 7:06 pm

A Granite State poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire finds Shea-Porter trailing Bradley by a 46 percent to 40 percent in a prospective general election matchup. Shea-Porter leads Stephen in a prospective general election matchup by a 42 percent to 36 percent margin. The poll of 235 likely voters, conducted July 11-July 20, has a margin of error of 6.4 percent.

July 16, 2008 - 12:35 am

Second-quarter fundraising reports show Shea-Porter taking in $262,778 and having $748,530 on hand. Bradley raised $148,526 and has $475,348 on hand. Stephen took in $138,216 and has $256,883 in the bank.

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