America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 3, 2008


Leans
Democratic
#33
NM-1
Heather Wilson (R)
is not running for re-election
Last Week's Rank: #33

2008 Candidates

Darren White (R)

Bernalillo County Sheriff

Martin Heinrich (D)

Albuquerque City Councilman

 

About the Race

RACE PROFILE: The competitive nature of the district likely helped Wilson make the jump to run for the U.S. Senate seat of the retiring Pete Domenici (R). No matter who is running this is one of the most competitive house seats in the nation. Wilson had an 861-vote victory over Democrat Patricia Madrid in 2006, and Al Gore and John Kerry edged out George W. Bush in the Albuquerque-area district in 2000 and 2004. It's hard to not see a very competitive race for Wilson's seat this fall.

Both parties are high on their respective candidates. Democrats have Heinrich, a councilor for the city of Albuquerque and a state Natural Resources Trustee. He is coming off a June 3 primary victory over former Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron, former State Secretary of Health Michelle Grisham, and attorney Robert Pidcock.

Republicans are running White, a Bernallilo County sheriff who has held positions in the New Mexico Department of Public Safety and Houston Police Department.

Given the history of the district and the strength of the candidates, there is no reason as of yet to believe that this race will cleanly break one way or the other before Election Day.

ANALYSIS: This race remains tight, but we think the National Republican Congressional Committee’s decision to limit its advertising in this race is a bad sign for White. We also think Obama will fare well in New Mexico, and that benefits Heinrich.

 

 

Race Updates

November 6, 2008 - 6:51 pm — Leans Democratic — #33

With 100 percent of the precincts reporting, Heinrich has defeated White 55 percent to 45 percent.

November 4, 2008 - 12:29 pm — Leans Democratic — #33
An Albuquerque Journal poll finds Heinrich leading White 47 percent to 43 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters, conducted Oct. 28-30, has an error margin of 4.9 percent.

October 29, 2008 - 4:36 pm — Leans Democratic — #11

Heinrich and White clashed over campaign tactics in an Oct. 26 debate.

October 27, 2008 - 1:13 pm — Leans Democratic — #11

White and Heinrich focused on healthcare in an Oct. 23 debate.

White and Heinrich sparred over the Wall Street bailout in an Oct. 22 debate.

October 16, 2008 - 5:00 pm — Toss up — #1

Heinrich has reported raising $750,000 in third quarter funds.

October 13, 2008 - 12:09 pm — Toss up — #7

The National Republican Congressional Committee has reportedly cancelled nearly 70 percent of its advertising time for White.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi held an Oct. 8 fundraiser for Heinrich, but both Democrats avoided talking to the press after the event.

October 7, 2008 - 10:14 pm — Toss up — #7

An Albuquerque Journal poll finds Heinrich leading White 43 percent to 41 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters, conducted Sept. 29-Oct. 2, has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

October 2, 2008 - 11:16 pm — Toss up — #7

Heinrich has released a new television advertisement attacking White for his performance as New Mexico Secretary of Public Safety. White responded by releasing a television advertisement of his own featuring the parents of a slain deputy praising White.

October 1, 2008 - 4:03 pm — Toss up — #7

White’s name appears on a Sept. 29 Department of Justice report regarding the firing of federal prosecutors, The Associated Press reports. But White is denying any involvement in any GOP conspiracy to bring down former U.S. Attorney David Iglesias.

September 29, 2008 - 11:54 am — Toss up — #7
A poll for Heinrich’s campaign shows the Republican leading White 48 percent to 42 percent. The survey of 450 likely voters, conducted Sept. 22-Sept. 23, has a margin of error of 4.6 percent.

September 26, 2008 - 9:35 pm — Toss up — #7

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began airing a television advertisement on Sept. 23 comparing White to President Bush.

Freedom’s Watch is running a new television advertisement in the district targeting Heinrich. 

September 25, 2008 - 12:07 am — Toss up — #7
White began airing a new television advertisement on Sept. 22.

September 23, 2008 - 12:24 am — Toss up — #7

Heinrich is airing automated calls saying that taxpayers shouldn’t have to pay for security for President Bush for his May stop to campaign for White in the district.

September 18, 2008 - 9:11 pm — Toss up — #7

White released a new television advertisement on Sept. 12 spotlighting his biography and his ability to lead.

Heinrich released a new television advertisement on Sept. 10 tying White to President Bush on energy.

September 15, 2008 - 11:34 am — Toss up — #3

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $60,558 in the district between Sept. 3 and Sept. 10. The committee has spent $147,714 in the district in total.

September 8, 2008 - 8:54 am — Toss up — #3

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $42,976 on independent expenditures in the district between Aug. 27 and Sept. 2. The committee has spent $87,156 in the district in total.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $30,190 on independent expenditures in the district between Aug. 20 and Aug. 26. The committee has spent $44,180 in the district in total.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani held an Aug. 27 fundraiser for White.

September 5, 2008 - 3:14 pm — Toss up — #3
White criticized a visit to the district by U.S. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) to help Heinrich's campaign because of a move by Hoyer to cut funding for the Sandia and Los Alamos laboratories, KOB-4 News reported.

August 14, 2008 - 3:04 am — Toss up — #3

According to a report in The Hill, Heinrich is undecided on whether to attend the Democratic National Convention.

August 11, 2008 - 6:02 pm — Toss up — #3

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has announced its initial purchase of $14,000 advertising time in the district, part of a $200,000 buy in districts nationwide.

August 7, 2008 - 2:32 pm — Toss up — #3
As Politicker.com reports, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will begin airing ads in the district combating the conservative advocacy organization Freedom's Watch.

August 1, 2008 - 2:06 pm

A poll released by White and conducted on July 22 and 23 shows that White's lead over Heinrich sits at 47 to 41 percent, which directly conflicts with an earlier poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research that put Heinrich over White at 47 to 44 percent.

July 14, 2008 - 11:27 am

Democrat Martin Heinrich continued to significantly out-fundraise his Republican opponent Darren White, but White isn't on the same spending spree and had more cash on hand at the end of June.

Heinrich raised over $510,000, while White raised a little over $300,000 in the second quarter.

In terms of cash on hand, Heinrich had $354,000 and White lead with $654,000.

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