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Last Updated: November 2, 2008


Leans
Republican
#6
U.S. Senate: Mississippi (Special)
Incumbent: Roger Wicker (R)
Last Week's Rank: #6

2008 Candidates

Roger Wicker (R)

U.S. Senator

Ronnie Musgrove (D)

Former Governor

 

About the Race

Republicans aren't supposed to be worrying about U.S. Senate seats in Mississippi, where Democrats haven't won since 1982, but the resignation of a longtime incumbent puts the seat in play as the newly-appointed GOP senator battles a former Democratic governor. If Republicans can't win a Senate seat in one of America's most conservative electorates, their prospects in other parts of the nation may indeed be dim.

Since last December, when Trent Lott resigned to seek success in the private sector, the senator has been 57-year-old Republican Roger Wicker, who was serving his seventh term in the House at the time of his appointment.

The Democratic candidate is Ronnie Musgrove, 52, well known to Mississippians as a former governor, lieutenant governor and state senator. He was elected governor in 1999 (one of the closest gubernatorial contests in state history) and lost his re-election bid in 2003 to Haley Babour by a 53 percent to 46 percent margin.

Historically, appointed U.S. senators only keep their seats about half the time. This is a race fundamentally about whether Wicker can introduce himself to voters outside of his former congressional district in the northern part of the state.

Voters already know Musgrove, whose name identification has helped propel him into a race that has been within the margin of error in recent polls. Sometimes people tend to like former governors more after they've been out of office for a while. It will be up to Wicker to remind voters that they tossed Musgrove five years ago because they didn't like his management of the state economy, that his pay increases for school teachers didn't do much to improve public schools, and that he never fulfilled his promise to reform the civil justice system - a big issue in Mississippi.

All other factors favor Wicker. Mississippi is expected to vote heavily for John McCain. Also on the ticket will be fellow Republican U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran, one of the safest incumbents this election year. Barbour, no stranger to the importance of having allies in the Senate, also has a lot riding on this race: he's the one who appointed Wicker to the seat.

Race Updates

November 12, 2008 - 1:32 pm — Leans Republican — #6
Wicker pulled away in the late stages of the campaign and won 55 percent to 45 percent.

October 24, 2008 - 11:55 am — Toss up — #3

CHANGE FROM LEANS REPUBLICAN TO TOSSUP

Despite every local advantage on the ballot (McCain, Cochran) the national pull and the focus on the economy now has this race showing Musgrove with the momentum and within a single point. It is important to keep in mind that if Wicker loses Democrats will probably get their 60 seat majority, but Musgrove is so conservative that he might be voting with Republicans a lot more than people think.

October 20, 2008 - 4:35 pm — Leans Republican — #3
This race has tightened up a bit, but Mississippi is still a Republican state -- a place John McCain will win -- and while it might be close, Roger Wicker will keep the seat.  Wicker has done an effective job at controlling Ronnie Mugrave's approvals.

October 16, 2008 - 12:00 pm — Likely Republican — #10
In an attempt to figure out why the U.S. Senate race has drifted into the negative, state Sen. Hob Bryan told the Daily Journal that he thinks the political climate is to blame.

"They are two such good people, such good public servants," Bryan said. "It is very depressing. That is why I am not paying attention except for the commercials I can't help but see during prime time."

October 7, 2008 - 10:56 am — Likely Republican — #9
A political analyst told WAPT that the Friday night debate between Musgrove and Wicker was anything but a game changer.

"I can't imagine who watched this tonight and had their mind changed," Steffey said. "I can't imagine who was the target audience that was expected to respond, and perhaps that wasn't the point. Perhaps the point was to stay on message and reinforce the themes of the campaigns."

September 26, 2008 - 11:32 am — Likely Republican — #8
Although the Musgrove campaign contends it isn't concerned about money, Wicker has dwarfed his competition's fundraising efforts by a gap of $4.1 million to $1.27 million, according to a story by the Sun Herald.

September 18, 2008 - 6:50 pm — Likely Republican — #7

Democrats are celebrating today after the Mississippi Supreme Court sided with them over an issue about the ballot.

Republican wanted to place this special election further down on the ballot instead of next to the other U.S. Senate race under the theory that poor voters and minorities wouldn't keep voting further down the ballot.

The court prevented that from happening. 

September 16, 2008 - 1:08 pm — Likely Republican — #7
A debate between Musgrove and Wicker will be televised on WTOK-TV on Oct. 3 from 7-8 p.m.

September 8, 2008 - 2:50 pm — Likely Republican — #7
An article in the State Journal highlights another challenge that Musgrove will face in his battle against Wicker. Marty Wiseman of Mississippi State University says that Musgrove has to inform voters that he is the Democratic candidate -- as state law says that special elections cannot outline party affiliation. However, Wiseman expects that Obama's place as the Democratic presidential nominee may help Musgrove out. "I don't think Obama will win the state," he said. "But he could bring out more people who would probably vote for Musgrove.

August 23, 2008 - 10:12 am — Toss up — #3
A new poll from Rasmussen Reports shows that Wicker is leading Musgrove, 47 percent to 42 percent.

August 17, 2008 - 11:47 am — Toss up — #3
On Aug. 15, former U.S. Sen. Trent Lott joined Wicker at the dedication of his new office in Pascagoula, in the same building where Lott had a local U.S. Senate office for more than 20 years, The Mississippi Press reports.

August 15, 2008 - 3:14 pm — Toss up — #3

WAPT News reports on the newest television ad from Wicker who claims convicted felons are funding Musgrove's U.S. Senate campaign.

August 14, 2008 - 10:33 pm — Toss up — #3
A new Wicker ad suggests that convicted felons contributed to Musgrove's campaign. Cute. Wicker is talking about two trial lawyers in particular who gave to Musgrove's campaign for governor... before they were charged with bribing a judge. Let's see if it works anyway. Looking at the local press coverage it is a classic example of the old line in politics of "if you are explaining you are losing." Even in Wicker is the one who should be explaining and not Musgrove on this one.

August 11, 2008 - 3:08 pm — Toss up — #3
Over the weekend, Wicker picked up the endorsement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's VoteForBusiness Bandwagon, according to a story in The Meridian Star.

August 4, 2008 - 3:39 pm — Toss up — #1

The Northeast Mississippi Journal is reporting is reporting that Wicker used the playbook Haley Barbour used to defeat then-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove in 2003 at the Neshoba County Fair last week. In 2003, Barbour, a former Republican National Party operative and Washington, D.C., lobbyist, defeated Musgrove by hammering on the state's budget troubles and job loss.

August 1, 2008 - 9:42 am

Republican surrogates are beginning to attack Ronnie Musgrove. Speaking at the Neshoba County Fair yesterday, Mississippi State Treasurer Tate Reeves led an attack on Musgrove's spin on his own record. "Figures don't lie, but liars figure," Reeves said, according to the Daily Journal. "After listening to these figures, I think the people of Mississippi can decide if they want Musgrove's 'fiscal common sense' in the U.S. Senate."

August 1, 2008 - 8:03 am

A new Research 2000 poll conducted for DailyKos.com shows this race still within the margin of error.

Wicker had a 45 percent to 44 percent advantage over Musgrove. The poll's margin of error was +/- 4 percent.

July 17, 2008 - 11:52 am

Financial reports this week show U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker with a strong financial advantage over Democratic challenger Ronnie Musgrove. 

Wicker raised $822,000 in the second fundraising quarter giving him $2.9 million cash-on-hand, three times larger than Musgrove. Musgrove raised $814,000 for same three month period, leaving him with $716,000 cash on hand.

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