America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 3, 2008


Likely
Democratic
#56
MS-1
Incumbent: Travis Childers (D)
Last Week's Rank: #56

2008 Candidates

Travis Childers (D)

Congressman

Greg Davis (R)

Southaven Mayor

About the Race

CANDIDATES: Democratic U.S. Rep. Travis Childers won the seat in 2008 after then-U.S. Rep. Roger Wicker, a Republican, filled Trent Lott's U.S. Senate seat. The Republican candidate is Southaven Mayor Greg Davis. During the May 13 special election, Childers defeated Davis with 54 percent. George W. Bush won the district in 2004 with 62 percent.

RACE PROFILE: Childers will likely have a difficult time holding onto the seat he won in a May special election against Davis. Childers will face off against Davis again in November, but this time around presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain and Roger Wicker, who used to hold Childers' seat and is now running to secure a first full term in the U.S. Senate, will be at the top of the ticket. That bodes well for the Republican Davis in a district that gave George W. Bush a 25 percent margin of victory in 2004.

ANALYSIS: Democrats we talk to seem considerably less nervous about this contest than they did a few months ago. There’s a good reason for that: Davis hasn’t done anything to convince voters that Childers should be replaced. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee hasn’t yet invested heavily in this contest and we are beginning to wonder if they will need to.

Race Updates

November 6, 2008 - 6:49 pm — Likely Democratic — #56

With 100 percent of the precincts reporting, Childers has defeated Davis 54 percent to 44 percent.

October 19, 2008 - 9:36 pm — Leans Republican — #49

Childers and Davis focused on fiscal issues in an Oct. 15 debate.

September 18, 2008 - 9:18 pm — Leans Republican — #24

A poll conducted for Childers’s campaign shows the Democrat leading Davis 51 percent to 39 percent. The survey of 502 likely voters, conducted Sept. 7 – Sept. 10, has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

August 15, 2008 - 5:36 pm — Leans Republican — #24
As the DeSoto Times reports, Davis outraised Childers during the most-recent reporting period which ended July 30. Davis raised $1.34 million, including a $55,000 personal loan while Childers raised $1.31 million, including a $100,000 personal loan. Childers, however, had more cash on hand.

August 14, 2008 - 11:53 pm — Leans Republican — #24

Childers and Davis will skip their respective party conventions, the Memphis Commercial Appeal reports.

July 21, 2008 - 10:45 pm

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced today that it had reserved more than $1 million in advertising time in the district. The purchase is part of a 51-district nationwide ad buy on the part of the committee.

July 16, 2008 - 12:50 am

Fundraising reports show Childers taking in around $168,000 in second-quarter funds, and having approximately $161,000 in the bank. Davis raised roughly $6,700, and has around $54,000 in cash on hand.

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Comments

Childers poll


The poll was conducted for the Childers campaign by a company that prides itself on electing Democrats. The poll EXCLUDED DeSoto county, the fastest growing county in Mississippi, and home of Mayor Greg Davis. There are lots of odd dynamics in this district that may favor Childers but this poll showing Childers with 51% is about as reliable as a Childers TV ad.

09/19/08 5:58 pm

DCCC attacks Davis; odd thing to do if that poll was legit


Yes and the DCCC unleashed an attack ad on Davis this week (who is running a 100% positive campaign). The poll was bogus on its face to people who live in the district, the firm has a history of releasing polls to influence elections ahead of time. The fact that the DCCC has attacked Davis should prove to any casual political observer that the race is MUCH tighter or they wouldn't have wasted the money or time to bother with attacking Davis. One rumor from late this week is that the DCCC panicked when they had an internal poll showing Davis up by a few points and thus, attacked. Davis had a poll showing him within 4, but within the statistical MOE just prior to beginning his advertising in late Sept.; so, this rumor is plausible if one has witnessed the positive reception to Davis's new ad.

The demographics of the Special Election favored Childers for several reasons. But the tripling of the electorate in Nov with the increase primarily among traditional Pub demographics that better represent the district give Davis a tremendous boost.

This one has a great chance of being the surprise of the political season. People paying attention to this race realize this, but no media apparently are seeing the obvious signals.

10/17/08 4:54 pm

Yes and the DCCC unleashed


Yes and the DCCC unleashed an attack ad on Davis this week (who is running a 100% positive campaign). The poll was bogus on its face to people who live in the district, the firm has a history of releasing polls to influence elections ahead of time. The fact that the DCCC has attacked Davis should prove to any casual political observer that the race is MUCH tighter or they wouldn't have wasted the money or time to bother with attacking Davis. One rumor from late this week is that the DCCC panicked when they had an internal poll showing Davis up by a few points and thus, attacked. Davis had a poll showing him within 4, but within the statistical MOE just prior to beginning his advertising in late Sept.; so, this rumor is plausible if one has witnessed the positive reception to Davis's new ad.

The demographics of the Special Election favored Childers for several reasons. But the tripling of the electorate in Nov with the increase primarily among traditional Pub demographics that better represent the district give Davis a tremendous boost.

This one has a great chance of being the surprise of the political season. People paying attention to this race realize this, but no media apparently are seeing the obvious signals.

10/17/08 4:55 pm

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