About the Race
The Virginia U.S. Senate seat, held by Republicans since 1978, is almost certain to flip to the Democrats. John Warner, the five-term GOP incumbent, is retiring, and Democrat Mark Warner (no relation), a former governor (and briefly a presidential candidate) seems to be dominating the race to succeed him. His Republican opponent, James Gilmore, also a former governor (and the former GOP National Committee chairman) was only able to muster 50.5 percent to win his party's nominating convention.
This may be the first Senate campaign in American history where the two major party candidates had previously run for president the same year.
John Warner went to the Senate 30 years ago under unusual circumstances: in 1978, he was the former Secretary of the Navy (and by the way, Elizabeth Taylor's seventh husband) who had lost the GOP convention when the winner, Dick Obenshain, was killed in a plane crash. John Warner's only close race was in 1996, when Mark Warner, who made millions in the telecommunications industry, held him to a six-point win - 53 percent to 47 percent.
Virginia was the site of the most stunning upset in the 2006 election cycle: popular incumbent George Allen, a former governor widely viewed as a 2008 presidential contender, lost to Republican-turned-Democrat Jim Webb, who was Ronald Reagan's Secretary of the Navy. A year earlier, Democrat Tim Kaine was elected governor. So Democrats have won three of the last four statewide races for Senate and governor.
For Mark Warner, timing has been everything. He dropped out of the Democratic presidential race early -- and at a time when he was signing up some major fundraisers and showing signs that he might be able to break out of the second tier of candidates. Then John Warner dropped out, and he decided to take the bird in hand and go for the Senate, rather than take the risky path of campaigning for vice president.
Gilmore also ran for president in 2007, and unlike Warner, there was never any good news. By the time he dropped out, few knew he was ever in.
In the presidential race, Virginia is a toss-up state. Expect to see Barack Obama and John McCain making frequent campaign appearances here -- Obama with Mark Warner at his side, McCain perhaps avoiding joint appearances with Gilmore. Three Virginians are getting frequent mentions for vice president: Kaine, Webb, and Eric Cantor, a 45-year-old four-term congressman from the Richmond area who is the chief deputy minority whip.
If he wins the Senate seat, and if Democrats lose the White House, watch for a real rivalry between Warner and Webb as the two posture for 2012.
Virginia may be for lovers, but the commonwealth is also on the cusp of having two Democratic U.S. Senators and a Democratic governor for the first time since January 1970. That's something you don't see in the New South anymore.
