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About the Pindell Report


America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 2, 2008


Leans
Republican
#2
U.S. Senate: Kentucky
Incumbent: Mitch McConnell (R)
Last Week's Rank: #2

2008 Candidates

Mitch McConnell (R)

U.S. Senator

 

Bruce Lunsford (D)

Businessman 

About the Race

Democrats love the idea that Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford could take out U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. But it’s hard to imagine McConnell losing.

McConnell, who has been in the Senate since he ousted incumbent Walter “Dee” Huddleston in 1984, has had three relatively easy re-election bids; he received 65 percent in 2002, and his approval ratings aren’t as wonderful as Wendell Ford’s used to be, but they seem good enough t get him re-elected.

But as the leader of the Senate Republicans, McConnell would prefer to be focused on his national agenda -- specifically defending GOP Senate seats and picking up some new ones. If McConnell has to spend his $9 million war chest to keep his seat, then Democrats (though surely not Lunsford) will consider it a victory because they will have stopped McConnell from exporting money to other states.

Two polls showing the race to be tighter than expected has got our attention, but unless Lunsford capitalizes soon we will lose interest quickly. There just doesn’t seem to be enough out there to indicate that McConnell is going to be out of a job in November.

Race Updates

November 12, 2008 - 1:22 pm — Leans Republican — #2
McConnell won re-election 53 percent to 47 percent.

October 29, 2008 - 12:43 pm — Leans Republican — #5
After being challenged by Lunsford to call for the resignation of convicted U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, McConnell spoke out against Stevens, and urged him to resign. According to PolitickerKY.com, the Lunsford campaign is taking credit for McConnell's statement.

"Most people would realize right away that when a man is convicted on seven felony counts, he no longer belongs in the U.S. Senate and should resign immediately, " said Lunsford spokesperson Cary Stemple.

October 10, 2008 - 11:05 am — Leans Republican — #7
PolitickerKY.com is reporting on a radio ad made by the American Energy Alliance that accuses Lunsford of being proud of passing a state gas tax that is now 21 cents per gallon.

September 30, 2008 - 12:27 pm — Likely Republican — #8
The Courier-Journal is reporting that McConnell may suddenly be in for a close contest in his quest to keep his Senate seat. In a survey conducted by the newspaper of 717 Kentucky residents, both Lunsford and McConnell took 41 percent of the vote, with a margin of error of 3.7 percent.

September 25, 2008 - 11:48 am — Likely Republican — #13
PolitickerKY.com is reporting that a recent gain made by Lunsford in polling this week could be attributed to bump from U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, who has been campaigning in the area.

September 23, 2008 - 7:04 pm — Likely Republican — #13

A new Survey USA poll today shows McConnell 12 point lead last month dropping to just three points.

McConnell now has just a 49 percent to 46 percent lead over Lunsford. A dramatic change that puts this race on the watch list. We are unsure whether or not this is an outlier. 

September 18, 2008 - 5:55 pm — Likely Republican — #12

An internal McConnell campaign poll gave McConnell a 52 percent to 35 percent lead over Lunsford.

The campaign said the led was remarkable given that only 28 percent of Kentucky voters believe the country is on the right track. 

September 15, 2008 - 1:25 pm — Likely Republican — #12
A recent debate between McConnell and Lunsford over the weekend turned ugly when Lunsford brought McConnell's ranking on a list of the 20 most corrupt members of Congress, according to the Associated Press.

"I thought were going to have a civil debate here, rather than throw mud at each other," McConnell said.

September 8, 2008 - 2:52 pm — Likely Republican — #12
According to the Herald-Leader, Lunsford is digging deep and browsing McConnell's quote archive in order to try and close the gap between himself and the U.S. Senate minority leader. Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky, says that McConnell could be a good target for this tactic because of the amount of time he has spent in office - but that Lunsford should beware.

September 1, 2008 - 1:19 pm — Likely Republican — #12
According to the Herald-Leader, U.S. State Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) will be stumping in Kentucky on Sept. 20 to stump for both Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama and for other Democratic candidates.

August 15, 2008 - 3:48 pm — Likely Republican — #10

CQ Politics reported that McConnell is leading Lunsford 52 percent to 40 percent with 8 percent undecided in a Survey USA poll conducted Aug. 9-11.

PolitickerKY.com reported that Lunsford today targeted McConnell for supporting initiatives that would privatize parts of the Social Security program. In conjunction with the 73rd anniversary of the creation of the Social Security system, Lunsford's campaign released a brief statement using the occasion to criticize the U.S. Senate minority leader.

August 13, 2008 - 1:12 am — Likely Republican — #10

A new SurveyUSA poll shows that McConnell is maintaining a double-digit lead over Lunsford, PolitickerKY.com reports. The U.S. Senate minority leader holds a 52 percent to 40 percent lead over the Louisville businessman.

The McConnell camp has also responded to a new Lunsford ad with its own ad mocking it.

August 9, 2008 - 4:17 pm — Likely Republican — #10
Following a comments that he would like to eliminate the entire Arab race, Libertarian candidate Sonny Landham told PolitickerKY.com that he is dropping his bid for the Senate.

August 9, 2008 - 2:52 pm — Likely Republican — #10
Responding to an recent Lunsford attack ad that showcased McConnell as a Washington insider McConnell campaign manager Justin Brasell mocked the ad in an e-mailed statement.

"Here is how it works in Lunsford's world: you run a nursing home business that takes millions from the federal government and then are forced to pay record fines for poor treatment of senior citizens," the statement reads, mocking the tone of the ad. "Then you bankrupt the business but make sure that you walk away with millions. That's how it works in Lunsford's world."

August 7, 2008 - 1:54 pm — Likely Republican — #10
In his latest television ad, Lunsford has pulled out all stops in order to close the gap between himself and McConnell, PolitickerKY.com reports. In addition to connecting the Senate minority leader to recently indicted U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), the ad says that like Stevens, McConnell is in the pockets of Big Oil.

August 1, 2008 - 12:52 pm

A Rasmussen Reports survey conducted on July 29 shows McConnell leading Lunsford by 12 points, 50 percent to 38 percent. In June, Rasmussen had McConnell up 48 percent to 41 percent. The timing of the poll incorporates the airing of McConnell's recent attack ad targeting Lunsford over gas prices as well as Lunsford's own response spot, which highlighted newspaper editorials deriding McConnell's ad as "dishonest." Despite the attacks from either side, neither candidate's favorability ratings show any significant downticks. Read more on PolitickerKY.com.

August 1, 2008 - 8:27 am

PolitickerKY.com reports that oil and gas prices are dominating this race from both campaigns.

"The most visible manifestation on the day is the McConnell campaign's newest television spot, a 30-second attack on Lunsford that pulls out a variety of charges and lauds McConnell's plans for increased domestic oil production."

July 21, 2008 - 6:43 pm

Mitch McConnell went up with new television ads accusing Bruce Lunsford of putting in place a gas tax while an aide to Gov. John Brown Jr. in 1980.

The Lunsford campaign said it was a "ridiculous negative attack" and "nothing more than a desperate political smokescreen."

 

July 17, 2008 - 1:01 pm

Bruce Lunsford threw in $2.5 million of his own money in order to keep pace for the second quarter with Mitch McConnell during the second period, something Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy said was "not impressive."

In total, Lunsford has put in about $3.5 million of his own money. McConnell has raised more for this race -- $15 million -- than any in Kentucky history. 

 

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