America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 2, 2008


Leans
Democratic
#7
U.S. Senate: Oregon
Incumbent: Gordon Smith (R)
Last Week's Rank: #7

2008 Candidates

Gordon Smith (R)

U.S. Senator

 

Jeff Merkley (D)

State House Speaker

 

About the Race

U.S. Sen. Gordon Smith is the last Republican standing in a state where Democrats now occupy every other statewide office, majorities in the state legislature, and four out of five congressional seats. Oregon, after all, hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan, and has had a Democratic governor since 1986 (although the GOP has come very close to winning several times).

The 56-year-old Smith first went to the Senate in 1996 (on his second try; he lost a special election to Ron Wyden earlier that year when Bob Packwood resigned), winning 50 percent to 46 percent when Mark Hatfield retired after 30 years in office. He was re-elected in 2002 in a landslide -- 56 percent to 40 percent over Secretary of State Bill Bradbury.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee felt lucky when it was able to recruit state House Speaker Jeff Merkley to challenge Smith. His announcement came on the heels of a very good year for Democrats in 2006. But Merkley got off to a slow start, both in fundraising and getting much support statewide. Suddenly what was supposed to be a nominal challenge from an unknown liberal activist, Steve Novick, became a very serious one. In the course of the primary, Merkley had to swing to the left to head off Novick. In the end Merkley won a narrow 45 percent to 41 percent victory.

But in that primary Smith saw his opening and grabbed the center. He ran positive ads heavily with the slogan of "common sense." The word Republican appeared nowhere. He later ran ads highlighting his work with Barack Obama and even John Kerry.

The primary also left Merkley nearly broke and Smith flush with cash. And Smith is well-liked by voters who haven't ousted an incumbent U.S. Senate since 1968.

The fall contest will be a test of the Republican Party label in Democratic-leaning Oregon. Merkley's chances are very much based on his ability to link Smith with the national GOP. On the night he won the primary, he said that Smith "has been a rubber stamp for the Bush administration." But Merkley can't win unless Oregonians come to believe that Smith is not the independent maverick he claims to be.

Race Updates

November 12, 2008 - 1:33 pm — Leans Democratic — #7
Merkley defeated Smith 49 percent to 46 percent. The election was tight enough that it wasn't called until two days after the election.

October 20, 2008 - 4:44 pm — Leans Democratic — #6
Polls still show this race to be close, but Jeff Merkley has been going up.  Among Gordon Smith's problems: Obama may win the presidency before the polls in Oregon close.

October 16, 2008 - 11:57 am — Toss up — #4
When asked during Monday night's debate if he regretted anything over the course of the campaign, Smith referred to an NRSC campaign ad that hit Merkley on foreign policy while the candidate ate a hot dog.

"I regret the tone of the campaign," Smith said, according to PolitickerOR.com. "I regret all of the money flooding into Oregon. The Republican Senatorial Committee ran a commercial with Jeff Merkley eating a hot dog. Jeff Merkley is a good person. I think I am a good person too. I would not belittle someone like that. I'm sorry we ran that ad."

October 14, 2008 - 10:19 am — Toss up — #4
A pair of newspapers are split on their endorsements for Oregon’s Senate seat. PolitickerOR.com is reporting that the Statesman Journal is endorsing Smith, while the Daily Astorian is favoring Merkley.

October 10, 2008 - 10:59 am — Toss up — #2
PolitckerOR.com is reporting on a new ad from Freedom's Watch that hits Merkley on his tax record. The ad features a clip of Merkley during a primary debate in which he said he would "advocate tax hikes every night in living rooms across Oregon."

October 7, 2008 - 10:46 am — Toss up — #2
PolitickerOR.com is reporting that Basic Rights Oregon has put out an ad that accusing him of pandering to voters in light of an advertisement that touts Smith's work with U.S. Sen. Edward Kennedy on hate crime legislation.


September 26, 2008 - 11:26 am — Toss up — #2
According to a story in The Oregonian, the negative campaigning between Smith and Merkley is beginning to have an impact on voters who would like the candidates to focus on the issues and keep the personal attacks to a minimum.

"I thought, 'My God, how much money is he wasting on this?' I want to know what they're going to do. I don't care if somebody ate a hot dog," said Annette Hamilton, a voter who is considering switching to Merkley due to negative ads from Smith.

September 18, 2008 - 4:54 pm — Leans Republican — #3

Two polls released yesterday both show Merkley picking up momentum and now within the margin of error of Smith.

PolitickerOR.com covers the Portland Tribune/Fox 12 poll showing Smith with a 3 point advantage. A Rasmussen poll showed Smith up just one point, 46 percent to 45 percent.

September 16, 2008 - 1:02 pm — Leans Republican — #3
PolitickerOR.com is reporting that Merkley is up in arms with a campaign ad from the Smith camp that claims he did not support extending the statute of limitations for rapists.

"This is totally misleading, " said Merkley spokesman Matt Canter. "Jeff Merkley supports policies to protect future victims."

September 8, 2008 - 2:47 pm — Leans Republican — #3
In a story that discusses abortion as a political football, Merkley spokesman Matt Canter tells The Oregonian that it will remain a critical issue over the course of the senatorial battle waging in the state. "It's going to be a huge issue in our race," Canter said. "Gordon Smith and George Bush have been packing the judiciary with extreme right-wing judges that seek to overturn a woman's right to choose."

August 26, 2008 - 11:15 pm — Leans Republican — #3
PolitickerOR.com reported that Merkley has picked up the endorsement of U.S. Sen Ron Wyden, despite the fact that the Smith campaign tried to tie itself to Wyden using health care related-issues as the rope.

August 15, 2008 - 3:28 pm — Leans Republican — #5

PolitickerOR.com reported the Merkley campaign hit back at Smith's latest television ad Thursday, by saying that the state capitol remodel that Smith's commercial disparages was actually approved by Smith's state director, Kerry Tymchuk. "His top aide and representative, Kerry Tymchuk, voted for the renovation," Merkley spokesman Matt Canter said.

August 14, 2008 - 2:24 am — Leans Republican — #5
The Service Employees International Union has released a new ad attacking Smith for voting for tax breaks for oil and drug companies, PolitickerOR.com reports.

August 13, 2008 - 3:30 pm — Leans Republican — #5
Republicans are attacking Merkley over his response to a question about the current armed conflict between Russia and Georgia during a campaign event over this past weekend. As PolitickerOR.com reports, Merkley was caught on tape eating when he was asked a question about the conflict, responding that he wasn't aware what was going on in Georgia, a former Soviet republic. "I was thinking Georgia, Jimmy Carter ..."

August 12, 2008 - 1:56 pm — Leans Republican — #5
According to a new Rasmussen poll, Smith is leading Merkley 47 percent to 39 percent.

In response, Merkley campaign spokesman Matt Canter told PolitickerOR.com:

"Voters in Oregon know Senator Smith. With his name identification, he should be up to 60 percent. Oregon voters are looking for a new leader in Washington, D.C."

August 9, 2008 - 2:45 pm — Leans Republican — #5
A SurveyUSA poll puts Smith comfortably ahead by 12 points over Merkley, 49-37. The Merkley campaign questioned the poll's findings, and said the sampled demographic may be conservative leaning.

August 7, 2008 - 1:37 pm — Leans Republican — #5
In a sign of how close the battle between Smith and Merkley is getting, Smith campaign spokeswoman Lindsay Gilbride on Aug. 6 said he will be skipping the Republican National Convention in order to focus on his senatorial campaign, according to the Associated Press.

In addition, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger -- who has recently come under fire for threatening to veto every bill until his state passes a comprehensive budget -- will head to Oregon on Aug. 21 in order to fundraiser for Smith.

August 4, 2008 - 3:47 pm

PolitickerOR.com has an article about that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a new ad Friday targeting Smith, claiming that he has not worked in Washington, D.C., to help Oregon families, but instead has worked for higher profits and tax breaks for oil companies which have given money to his campaign.

August 1, 2008 - 6:59 am
PolitickerOR.com reports Republican Gordon Smith released a second campaign ad featuring Barack Obama in an attempt to show he works in a bi-partisan way.

July 31, 2008 - 8:29 pm
PolitickerOR.com reports that Merkley secured the endorsement of the League of Conservation Voters and accepted the nomination of the Oregon Independent Party, the third-largest party in the state with 22,000 members.

July 17, 2008 - 12:09 pm

Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley won his tough primary against Steve Novick and went on to have his most successful fundraising quarter yet in the last three months (raising $1.42 million), but he is still playing a huge game of catch-up to incumbent Republican Gordon Smith, who continues to be in the driver's seat.

Smith finished June with $4.47 million cash on hand, compared to Merkley's $560,000.

Receive e-mail updates on this race