America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 2, 2008


Safe
Democratic
#18
U.S. Senate: New Mexico
Pete Domenici (R)
is not running for re-election
Last Week's Rank: #18

2008 Candidates

Tom Udall (D)

U.S. Congressman

 

Steve Pearce (R)

U.S. Congressman

About the Race

When six-term incumbent Pete Domenici announced his retirement all three members of Congress from the Land of Enchantment ran for his seat. Domenici's protege, Heather Wilson, lost the Republican primary in June to Steve Pearce. Pearce's contest against Democrat Tom Udall should draw the lines very clear. Pearce's conservative record and Udall's liberal record doesn't leave a lot to the imagination. The battleground will be Wilson's very moderate Albuquerque-area house district.

Because he didn't face a primary Udall has a very large fundraising advantage. The polling trend also shows Udall's once formidable leads getting tighter. It would have been a lot tighter had Wilson won the primary.

Race Updates

November 12, 2008 - 2:55 pm — Safe Democratic — #18
Udall won the open Senate seat 61 percent to 39 percent. 

October 14, 2008 - 10:24 am — Likely Democratic — #9
While stumping in Valencia County, Udall said that the path to economic recovery would be lined with jobs created by the pursuit of solar energy, according to The News-Bulletin. "We need to reinvest in solar and wind energy in New Mexico," Udall said. "If we concentrate on that, we can grow jobs right here."

October 10, 2008 - 11:09 am — Likely Democratic — #9
Echoing a recent poll from SurveyUSA, a new poll from The Albuquerque Journal shows a sizable lead for Udall over Pearce, 51 percent to 36 percent.

September 18, 2008 - 3:52 pm — Likely Democratic — #8

A number of new polls out in the last two weeks show a lot of movement back and forth, but that overall this race is getting closer than the blowout status it had in the summer.

A poll out today, by Survey USA, shows Udall up by 15 though two recent Rasmussen polls suggest this race is in the high single digits.

September 16, 2008 - 1:11 pm — Likely Democratic — #8
Energy has become a core issue in the state's U.S. Senate battle, according to Red Orbit. In response to ads released by Pearce that declare Udall as a strict environmentalist, the Udall campaign has responded with a series of commercials that outside his energy campaign -- an approach that includes alternative energy development as well as offshore drilling.

August 26, 2008 - 11:29 pm — Likely Democratic — #8

The Club for Growth has spent $150,000 on an ad campaign to attack Udall's stance on offshore drilling while simultaneously approving legislation that granted the government more power to take property.

According to the Albuquerque Journal, Club for Growth previously attacked Heather Wilson -- a Republican. Club for Growth was criticized heavily by U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici, who said the group had too big of an influence on the election for an out-of-state entity.

August 15, 2008 - 3:50 pm — Likely Democratic — #11

Pearce has received a long hoped for endorsement from outgoing Republican U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici. New Mexico's longest-serving U.S. senator said Thursday he's "100 percent" behind Pearce in his Nov. 4 general election bid against Udall, according to Las Cruses Sun News.

August 11, 2008 - 3:19 pm — Likely Democratic — #11
Pearce, who is hungry for a debate with Udall, gave his opponent seven days on Aug. 9 to finalize a series of debates coupled with an accusation that Udall is employing "duck and run" tactics to get out of a debate. The Udall campaign was quick to cry foul, saying that the statement came days after the two camps agreed to work out a debate schedule.

August 1, 2008 - 9:06 am

RACE DOWNGRADED FROM #8 TO #10

This open seat in a swing state involving two congressmen was supposed to be a battle for the nation to watch. What has become obvious is that this race is becoming less competitive at a time when North Carolina -- which occupied the 10th spot -- is getting more competitive.

August 1, 2008 - 8:15 am
The latest Rasmussen Poll shows Udall crushing Pearce 59 percent to 34 percent.

July 17, 2008 - 12:48 pm

Papers released this week show Democrat Tom Udall had a 5 to 1  cash on hand advantage over Republican Steve Pearce at the end of June.

Udall had nearly $2.9 million cash on hand compared to Pearce who had $532,000.

That said, Pearce did have an expensive June 3rd primary to get through. But Pearce also was not given a post-primary boost in fundraising that would put him at the same pace as Udall. 

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