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Last Updated: November 2, 2008
Leans
Democratic
#4
U.S. Senate: New Hampshire
Incumbent: John Sununu (R)
Last Week's Rank: #4
Incumbent: John Sununu (R)
Last Week's Rank: #4
2008 Candidates
John Sununu (R)
U.S. Senator
Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Former Governor
Bea Francoeur (I)
State Representative
About the Race
This rematch from 2002 is fundamentally a race between old New Hampshire and new New Hampshire. Incumbent freshman John E. Sununu is a perfect representation of old New Hampshire: he comes from a political family, he is a libertarian Republican, and he isn't too flashy on the campaign trail using Washington talking points. Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen represents new New Hampshire. Like 57 percent of the state, she is not native born, she lives in the population booming southern tier and she votes Democratic.
Sununu rose in politics through his family. His father is former Gov. John H. Sununu, who served as White House Chief of Staff to George H.W. Bush. Sununu won a tough primary for Congress in 1996 and for a decade three of four in the state's delegation were sons of former governors (Sununu, Judd Gregg, Charlie Bass).
Shaheen followed her husband to the state, a native. She rose up through the ranks as one of the most talented political operatives the state has ever seen. She ran New Hampshire presidential primary campaigns of Jimmy Carter and Gary Hart. She served as a state Senator and then in 1996 she became the state's first female governor. She served three terms. After losing her Senate bid to Sununu she was the national chair of John Kerry's presidential campaign and served as the director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard's Kennedy school.
The candidate who will be successful is the one who can argue which New Hampshire is better, the new or the old. Sununu will advocate the old, crusty Live Free or Die issues and point out that while governor Shaheen once unsuccessfully advocated for a sales tax. (The state proudly has neither an income tax or sales tax.) He will also appeal to voters that they know him and that Shaheen is just a politician. Shaheen, on the other hand, will try to demonstrate that Sununu doesn't represent the new New Hampshire. This once reliable Republican state, has voted for a Democrat for president three out of the last four times and President Bush consistently has an approval rating here in the 20s.
In 2002 Sununu defeated Shaheen by four percentage points. That was a year when old New Hampshire won. The Democratic candidate for governor advocated an income tax and Republicans took huge majorities in the state house, won every federal office and took back the governorship. In 2006 new New Hampshire won. Democrats took over every branch of state government for the first time since the 1870s, they won all federal offices up that year, and Democratic Gov. John Lynch, a Shaheen protege, won re-election by the largest margin in state history.
This is a state struggling to find it's political identity and this is the race that will decide it.
Race Updates
November 12, 2008 - 1:26 pm — Leans Democratic — #4
Shaheen defeated Sununu in their rematch 52 percent to 47 percent.
October 29, 2008 - 12:38 pm — Leans Democratic — #7
A new poll from the University of New Hampshire gives a big lead to Shaheen by a margin of 49 to 38 percent, according to the Nashua Telegraph.
October 27, 2008 - 12:59 pm — Leans Democratic — #8
The Boston Globe is reporting that Bill Clinton will appear in the state to campaign for Shaheen on Nov. 2.
October 24, 2008 - 11:59 am — Leans Democratic — #8
CHANGED FROM LIKELY DEMOCRAT TO LEANS DEMOCRAT
Quietly Sununu has cut into Shaheen's lead over the past month. There is little doubt that Sununu is a better campaigner and he is a good closer. It is still doubtful he can retain his seat given that every major Democrat is expected to win in New Hampshire, but he has a lot of money and if the numbers keep moving in his direction the third party money will keep coming. This race has moved back on the watch list.
October 22, 2008 - 1:06 pm — Likely Democratic — #10
The main focus of Monday's debate between Shaheen and Sununu was Social Security, according to WMUR. Sununu spent his time on the defensive, deflecting allegations from Shaheen that he voted with Bush "down the line" on economic issues. "The suggestion that I voted for Bush budgets is false," he said. "In fact, over the last two years, Democrats controlled the Senate. So, we were voting for Democratic budgets that raised taxes and spending."
October 14, 2008 - 10:22 am — Leans Democratic — #7
PolitickerNH.com is reporting that Shaheen once again attempted to connect Sununu to President Bush – a tactics we’re seeing more and more from Democratic challengers.
“John Sununu has been there with George Bush every step of the way,” she told voters while speaking in Goffstown.
October 10, 2008 - 11:07 am — Leans Democratic — #8
More than 400 veterans have signed up for "Veterans for Sununu," PolitickerNH.com reports. "The sheer size and scope of this impressive group — which includes members from every military branch and area of the state — is evidence of the enormous amount of support that Senator Sununu enjoys from Granite State veterans," said coalition co-chair Paul Chevalier.
October 7, 2008 - 10:51 am — Leans Democratic — #6
Republicans are accusing Shaheen of flip-flopping on the Wall Street bailout bill, according to the Concord Monitor.
The newspaper reports that Shaheen said she favored a bailout when discussing it with the Daily Sun editorial board, and then came out against the bill the following day. The Shaheen campaign explained that her changing stance on the bill was due in part to legislative changes before it eventually passed.
September 26, 2008 - 11:30 am — Leans Democratic — #6
According to a story by the Union Leader, both Shaheen and Sununu have one thing in common: A lack of answers on the faltering economy. Instead, both candidates have opted to play the blame game, the newspaper writes.
September 16, 2008 - 1:07 pm — Leans Democratic — #6
PolitickerNH.com is reporting that the state Republican Party has released video clips that show Shaheen flip-flopping on her nuclear energy position -- which the Shaheen campaign insists was taken out of context.
September 11, 2008 - 1:51 pm — Leans Democratic — #6
Shaheen and Sununu both easily won their primary contests on Sept. 9.
September 8, 2008 - 2:49 pm — Leans Democratic — #6
According to the Eagle Tribune, only 10 percent of the state's electorate is expected to show up to vote at Tuesday's primary.
September 2, 2008 - 12:07 pm — Leans Democratic — #6
The National Republican Senatorial Committee has released an advertisment that attacks Shaheen's record on spending.
August 20, 2008 - 6:41 pm — Toss up — #1
A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows that Shaheen is leading Sununu 51 percent to to 40 percent, PolitickerNH.com reports.
August 15, 2008 - 3:09 pm — Toss up — #1
According to an analysis piece on PolitickerNH.com by University of New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala, Sununu and Shaheen can expect to benefit from significant investments by their respective national senatorial campaign committees. Looking at the other U.S. Senate races this cycle, there are few other competitive races for the national money to go.
August 14, 2008 - 10:16 pm — Toss up — #1
PolitickerNH.com reports a conservative grassroots group has begun airing a radio ad against former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D-Madbury).
The ad sponsored by the New Hampshire chapter of Americans for Prosperity criticizes Shaheen's energy plan.
"New Hampshire needs solutions urgently. But... according to the Union Leader... when it comes to reducing the price of oil Jeanne Shaheen ‘simply has no idea what she is talking about,'" the ad states.
August 13, 2008 - 11:15 pm — Toss up — #1
The Service Employees International Union has released an ad targeting Sununu, accusing the U.S. senator of voting against legislation that would lower drug prices after accepting contributions from drug companies, PolitickerNH.com reports.
August 11, 2008 - 3:05 pm — Toss up — #1
According to a survey by the Associated Press, both Sununu and Shaheen agree that renewable energy sources can help mitigate problems facing the current economy, but disagree on the execution. Although Sununu believes in renewable energy tax credits for businesses and homeowners, he also supports offshore drilling as a way to produce more domestic energy -- which Shaheen is against.
August 7, 2008 - 1:25 pm — Toss up — #1
A video message was sent out by Shaheen's freshly appoined campaign manager Robby Mook on Aug. 6 to ask for money in order to offset attacks the camp has endured by right-wing groups, PolitickerNH.com reports. As it stands, Sununu's cash-on-hand eclipses Shaheen's by about $3 million.
August 4, 2008 - 3:41 pm — Toss up — #2
The New York Times has begun a series of stories on this race. The first installment today focused on the state's independent nature.
August 1, 2008 - 8:00 am
PolitickerNH.com reports that energy has emerged as the issue of the week for both the Shaheen and Sununu campaigns, a week after two polls showed this race tightening.
July 17, 2008 - 12:00 pm
Although official numbers have yet to be released, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat, is claiming she raised more money for any federal candidate in state history for a three month period. In the second quarter Shaheen raised $1.6 million, but when the final numbers are out it will likely show incumbent Republican John E. Sununu with a signifcant cash on hand advantage.
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