November 12, 2008 - 1:31 pm — Leans Democratic — #5
Stevens holds a slight lead though some 90,000 votes still need to be counted.

October 27, 2008 - 4:24 pm — Likely Democratic — #1
A federal jury found Stevens guilty about gifts he received from a business under investigation for the their role in influencing legislation. The guilty verdict virtually assures Democrat Mark Begich will win the seat.

October 20, 2008 - 4:32 pm — Toss up — #1
It's up to a jury in Washington, D.C. to decide who represents Alaska in the United States Senate.  If the jury votes to acquit Stevens (it only takes one), he'll keep his seat.  If the jury convicts, Mark Begich wins.

October 16, 2008 - 11:56 am — Toss up — #3
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has launched an ad campaign that focuses on taped FBI phone calls of Stevens from 2006, according to The Hill.

The Hill also notes that Begich has only commented on Stevens' criminal trial on a minimal basis, but with the DSCC's new campaign, it looks like Begich won't need to remind voters of the proceedings.

October 10, 2008 - 10:58 am — Toss up — #1
Although Stevens failed to get the mistrial he sought, The Wall Street Journal doesn't see a conviction in the senator's future because of key exclusions made by the judge in the case. According to the WSJ, the jury has been instructed to exclude evidence pertaining to alleged free labor provided to Stevens by Veco as well as a Land Rover allegedly given to Stevens by Veco CEO Bill Allen.

October 7, 2008 - 10:52 am — Likely Democratic — #7
The Anchorage Daily News is reporting on a finger-pointing battle between the Stevens and Begich campaigns over a debate challenge issued by Begich. The Democrat's campaign is accusing the Republican incumbent of refusing to debate, while the Stevens campaign maintains that it has agreed to a debate.

September 30, 2008 - 12:24 pm — Likely Democratic — #6
Polling between Stevens and Begich remains back and forth. An Ivan Moore Research poll shows that Begich leads Stevens by a paltry 2 percent.

September 26, 2008 - 11:28 am — Likely Democratic — #5
The Anchorage Daily News is reporting that Stevens wants to testify at his own trial.  This could have a significant impact on how he is polling in what is now a tight race with Begich.

September 18, 2008 - 6:26 pm — Likely Democratic — #9

Ted Stevens is roaring back. 

If he can make it through his trial in DC later this month a new Rasmussen poll suggests Stevens is within the margin of error of retaining his seat.

The reason why: Sarah Palin's new role as the vice presidential nominee, the pollster says.

This is, once again, a race to watch. 

September 16, 2008 - 1:14 pm — Likely Democratic — #9
Recent polling has put Stevens ahead of Begich, according to a story in the News Miner. Stevens is leading Begich by a two-point margin, 46 to 44.

September 11, 2008 - 1:40 pm — Likely Democratic — #9

CQ Politics is reporting that Stevens attempts to get his case thrown out in court have failed miserably, with the judge going as far as to cite constitutional grounds against  some of Stevens' requests. It is worth mentioning, however, that Stevens' numbers have been growing in popularity ever since Palin has been named as the republican vice presidential candidate.

September 8, 2008 - 2:51 pm — Likely Democratic — #9
The Fairbanks Daily News Miner is reporting that Stevens is picking up steam and closer the gap between him and Begich. A poll conducted earlier this month shows Stevens trailing Begich by only 3 percentage points. The margin of error in the poll is 4.4 percent.

September 1, 2008 - 1:15 pm — Likely Democratic — #9
Even if Stevens is convicted in his federal trial next month on charges of corruption, he will still remain on the ballot in the coming election, according to a story in USA Today.

August 27, 2008 - 11:45 am — Likely Democratic — #9

Begich easily won yesterday's primary with 91 percent of the Democratic Primary vote.

Stevens also cruised to victory with 64 percent of the multi-candidate Republican Primary field. His closest competitor David Cuddy got 24 percent. 

August 20, 2008 - 2:42 pm — Leans Democratic — #7
The federal judge who will oversee Sen. Stevens' trial announced today that it will begin on Sept. 22nd and will take place in Washington and not Alaska, as Stevens wanted.

August 17, 2008 - 2:40 pm — Leans Democratic — #7
As CQ Politics reports, in recent weeks, Stevens has raised less money than Begich. According to pre-primary reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Stevens reported raising $269,000 from July 1 to Aug. 6; Begich raised $413,000.

August 15, 2008 - 12:40 pm — Leans Democratic — #7

As Roll Call reports, according to court filings, prosecutors in the Stevens federal corruption probe allege that the lawmaker "failed to declare an interest-free $31,000 loan that allowed him to turn a quick profit of more than $100,000 from a Florida real estate deal."

USA Today reports, according to the filings, Stevens was one of the people who was concerned that the transition from "99" to "00" would wreak havoc on the nation's electric grid.

August 14, 2008 - 11:29 pm — Leans Democratic — #7

Stevens went on the air with three ads highlighting the themes of experience, Alaska, and the notion that "we'd be crazy to switch out senators now."

Or as one person in the ad put it "without Ted, we're toast."

August 14, 2008 - 11:20 pm — Leans Democratic — #7
Reuters reports: "Attorneys for Republican Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska urged a federal judge on Thursday to dismiss the criminal charges against him, arguing that only the Senate may discipline him for any violations of Senate rules. In another argument seeking to get the charges dismissed, they said the indictment infringed on Stevens' constitutional rights as a lawmaker because the allegations involved his legislative actions, votes and decisions."

August 7, 2008 - 1:44 pm — Leans Democratic — #7
In a move that could possibly thrust Begich into the national spotlight, the Obama campaign said that a conversation Obama had with Begich in June made the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee realize the importance of building the Alaska Natural Gas Line during his tenure in the White House should he win in November.

Obama spokesman Peter Rouse said the presidential candidate would work to reduce energy costs for Alaska residents and makes its resources available to the rest of the country.

August 4, 2008 - 3:50 pm

Stevens will appear for the first time with President Bush since he was indicted last week. They will both be at Eielson Air Force Base tonight as reported by ABC News. Stevens, who is running for re-election is fighting FBI and IRS probes based on his relationship with an oil services company executive who has admitted to bribing state legislators.

August 4, 2008 - 3:00 pm

This could be a race where we will not know who is on the November ballot.

As mentioned last week in this space, Stevens's attorney has requested a trial be held before Election Day so that he has a chance to prove Stevens is innocent.

If he is convicted it is likely he will face pressure to resign for the seat. If that happens Gov. Sarah Palin, a Republican, would get to decide who would be appointed to that seat.

What is more likely, however, is that if he is convicted the he would decide not to run for re-election and Palin and the state Republican Committee would decide who is replacement would be.

But the thing is, if that happens after ballots are printed Republicans in Alaska would find themselves in the same position as Republicans in Florida in 2006. Back then Florida Republicans had to explain t voters that voting for Mark Foley, who resigned from Congress in late September, they were actually voting for Joe Negron. 

August 1, 2008 - 5:28 pm

RACE DOWNGRADED FROM TOSS-UP TO LEANS DEMOCRATIC

With the indictment this week and the latest poll giving Begich a commanding lead, this race is now leaning Democratic.

August 1, 2008 - 5:16 pm

Who says a little indictment doesn't matter?

The first poll taken since Sen. Stevens was indicted shows him in the dangerous/drop-out zone. Democratuc challenger Begich blew out to a 21 point lead up from his 8 point lead just last week.

Stevens even lost ground against unknown and underfunded Cuddy, but still holds a 59 percent to 19 percent lead.

The poll, conducted by Ivan Moore Research, was taken over the two days since Stevens has been indicted. The margin of error was +/- 4.8 percent.

August 1, 2008 - 9:48 am
The senior Republican in the Senate is fast becoming a pariah in other key Senate races across the country, as GOP Senators move quickly to shed their campaigns of any campaign contributions that came their way courtesy of Ted Stevens. Eight U.S. senators -- Gordon Smith, Susan Collins, John Sununu, Norm Coleman, Mitch McConnell, Saxby Chambliss and Pat Roberts -- are either returning Stevens' money or giving it to charity. Stevens would probably like it back -- now it appears he'll need it!

August 1, 2008 - 8:12 am
An Associated Press story with an Alaska dateline talks to local voters to assess the impact of Stevens' indictment at home. It carries the headline "He's not God, but he's the best we've got up here."

July 31, 2008 - 8:50 pm

Stevens pled not-guilty to all seven charges that he failed to disclose $250,000 in gifts and house renovations given to him by the VECO Corporation on Senate financial disclosure forms.

His lawyer also argued the case should be moved to Alaska, where most of the witnesses live (and where a jury might be more sympathetic) and that the trial be held before Election Day. 

July 29, 2008 - 1:17 pm
Multiple news sources are reporting that Stevens will likely face an indictment today from a federal grand jury on seven counts of giving false statements to investigators.

July 21, 2008 - 5:50 pm

A Rasmussen Reports poll out today offered the most dramatic news yet about this race: Democrat Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich now leads long-time incumbent Republican Ted Stevens by a margin of 52%-44%. 

July 16, 2008 - 3:55 pm

Democratic challenger, Mark Begich, the Anchorage Mayor, out-raised incumbent Republican Ted Stevens, in the second quarter by roughly $250,000. The same filings show Stevens with 1.68 million cash on hand, double what Begich has available to spend.

Dave Cuddy raised about $10,000 and put in over $100,000 of his own money during the same period.