America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 1, 2008


Likely
Republican
#3
Indiana Governor
Incumbent: Mitch Daniels (R)
Last Week's Rank: #3

2008 Candidates

Mitch Daniels (R)

Governor

Jill Long Thompson (D)

Former Congresswoman

About the Race

CANDIDATES: Gov. Mitch Daniels is the Republican incumbent; former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson is the Democratic challenger.

RACE PROFILE: Hoosiers aren't big on change. They tend to like things the way they are. So you'll have to forgive them when a whipper-snapper of a new governor, like Mitch Daniels, comes in and says he wants to change a few things.

Daniels, a Princeton educated former Reagan political director, former Eli Lilly executive and former head of the Office of Management and Budget, was a novice as a candidate when he first ran for governor in 2004. He left the Bush administration to enter the Republican primary against a former congressman and the 2000 nominee. Early in the campaign came to speak Bush at a rally at the state fairgrounds. He looked in the crowd and recognized "My Man Mitch." The statement cleared the primary field in a month and he has been My Man Mitch every since.

So the deeply Republican state finally had a Republican governor for the first time since 1988. Most of the previous Democratic governors had been bland and had good relationships with the legislature. And here came Daniels, the change agent.

Consider the most controversial move early in his administration: A push to get Indiana on Daylight Savings Time like 47 other states. He won that battle, but that was before he so frustrated the legislature that Democrats walked out in protest. But the defining moment of his first term in office came later that year when he announced his new 10-year transportation program he called Major Moves. The most controversial aspect to Major Moves was to privatize major transportation routes, including the highly profitable Indiana Toll Road in Northern Indiana, as a way to pay for roads instead of raising the gas tax. In addition, he would pay for a widely anticipated expansion of Interstate 69 from Indianapolis to Evansville by making it a toll road. Major Moves was highly unpopular from the start. Daniels's approval rating dropped so quickly that the state Republican Party felt it needed to run ads on the issue to help out.

With Daylight Savings Time and Major Moves, Democrats ran against the Daniels administration in 2006 and picked up a lot of seats in the legislature.

With Daniels entering this year so vulnerable Democrats were hopeful they could take back the governorship. But former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson, the Democratic nominee, may not be the candidate to do that.

Race Updates

November 12, 2008 - 3:20 pm — Likely Republican — #3
Daniels is one of the few Republicans who swam against the tide. Obama was the first Democrat to win his state since 1964, but he won a second term 58 percent to 40 percent.

November 7, 2008 - 9:50 am — Likely Republican — #3
Daniels beat Long Thompson with 58 percent of the vote, according to The Associated Press.

October 31, 2008 - 12:40 pm — Leans Republican — #3
In the latest SurveyUSA poll, Daniels leads 55 percent to 38 percent.

The Republican is leading by a similar margin — 54 percent to 36 percent — in a new Indianapolis Star/Selzer poll.

October 27, 2008 - 12:26 pm — Leans Republican — #3
Daniels won the third-quarter fundraising war in southwestern Indiana 5 to 1, according to the Evansville Courier Press. The Republican raised $253,355 while Long Thompson raised $53,035.

October 24, 2008 - 3:30 pm — Leans Republican — #3
The Democratic gubernatorial ticket plans to visit 56 communities in the last 10 days of the campaign in a final push to reverse poll numbers that show Long Thompson trailing, according to WTVW.

October 23, 2008 - 12:55 pm — Leans Republican — #3
A new Public Policy Polling survey of the race shows Thompson trailing by a sizable margin, 57 percent to 36 percent.

October 22, 2008 - 11:13 am — Leans Republican — #3
Long Thompson is venturing back onto the television airwaves with a new ad, her first appearance on TV in more than a month, according to The Indianapolis Star. Daniels has been airing ads non-stop since April.

October 17, 2008 - 1:13 pm — Leans Republican — #3
The state treasurer says Long Thompson is being misleading by alleging that the $1 billion windfall from the Indiana Toll Road lease has been invested irresponsibly, according to WTHI-TV. The candidate first raised the issue on Tuesday.

October 16, 2008 - 1:42 pm — Leans Republican — #3
As of Sept. 30, Daniels had four times as much cash on hand ($1.1 million) as Long Thompson does ($245,000), according to The Indianapolis Star. Daniels raised about $7.2 million this year, and his rival raised about $3.5 million.

October 10, 2008 - 4:00 pm — Leans Republican — #4
Governing magazine has named Daniels one of the top eight public officials in the country, according to The Associated Press. The magazine praised the incumbent for his record of passing legislation and keeping the state financially sound.

October 9, 2008 - 12:43 pm — Leans Republican — #4
A recent WISH-TV Indiana poll, conducted by Research 2000, shows a tight race. Daniels leads by 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent, just outside of the 3.5-point margin of error, The Associated Press is reporting.

October 6, 2008 - 12:53 pm — Leans Republican — #4
The Indianapolis Star notes that voters will have to turn back their clocks only two days before they go to the polls, which might not be good for Daniels. The incumbent governor urged the legislature for the time change in 2005, an unpopular move with many Hoosiers. According to a Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll, 36 percent of voters think it's bad for the state and 48 percent of it. Long Thompson has called for a nonbinding referendum on the contentious time issue.

October 3, 2008 - 1:27 pm — Leans Republican — #4
A new South Bend Tribune/WSBT poll, conducted by Research 2000, shows Daniels leading by a single point, 47 percent to 46 percent, according to The Associated Press. The margin of error was 4 percent.

October 1, 2008 - 12:50 pm — Leans Republican — #4
A new SurveyUSA poll shows Daniels holding a large lead, 53 percent to 37 percent. The results are similar to a SurveyUSA poll released six weeks ago, in which Daniels led 52 percent to 38 percent.

September 25, 2008 - 12:56 pm — Leans Republican — #4
On Tuesday during the second of their three debates, the candidates sparred over how to pay for improvements to the state's education system, particularly regarding whether leasing the state lottery was a good idea, The Associated Press reports. Long Thompson said leasing the lottery is an option to pay for a higher education scholarship program.

September 22, 2008 - 6:23 pm — Leans Republican — #4

According to a new Indianapolis Star-WTHR poll, Daniels is
only up by 4 points, exactly the poll's margin of error. Conducted Sunday through Tuesday by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, the poll shows Daniels at 46 percent and Long Thompson at 42 percent.

It should be noted that the same poll also showed Obama with a lead in the state. Political observers are considering this poll to be an outlier. 

September 19, 2008 - 12:53 pm — Leans Republican — #4
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll shows Daniels with a comfortable lead, 56 percent to 40 percent. The incumbent has a 46 favorable rating and 41 percent unfavorable rating, according to the poll.

September 17, 2008 - 6:52 pm — Leans Republican — #4
In the first of three debates, Long Thompson attempted to make up some ground in the polls by attacking the incumbent Daniels, largely on the subject of the economy, according to The Indianapolis Star. The debate was so heated that Libertarian candidate Andy Horning said, "I think maybe I ought to put my podium between these two."

September 16, 2008 - 12:40 pm — Leans Republican — #4

The first of three gubernatorial debates is tonight at 8 p.m. at the Star Plaza in Merrillville, The Journal Gazette is reporting. Hosted by Dan Lowery, of public television's "Lakeshore Focus," the debate will be broadcast on Indiana's NewsCenter My Network TV.

September 15, 2008 - 1:05 pm — Leans Republican — #4
Long Thompson, who has been falling further and further behind her Republican opponent in the polls, is restructuring her campaign, The Courier-Journal is reporting. The upcoming debates — the first of three is Tuesday — appear to be her best shot at salvation as the election creeps closer.

September 12, 2008 - 1:04 pm — Leans Republican — #4
Long Thompson, who's been harping on Daniels' use of state vehicles during an election year, filed a formal complaint against him Wednesday, the Terre Haute News is reporting. Daniels' campaign is dismissing the complaint as a "political stunt."


September 10, 2008 - 3:12 pm — Leans Republican — #4
Long Thompson is accusing Daniels of campaigning on the taxpayers' dime, according to Indiananewscenter.com. She is asking her opponent for a full travel expenses disclosure and alleging that he is using state aircraft for campaigning and personal use.

September 9, 2008 - 11:18 pm — Leans Republican — #4
The Long Thompson campaign is denying rumors of financial trouble that have emerged in the wake of her closing some campaign offices and withdrawing TV advertisements, WRTV is reporting.

September 4, 2008 - 11:13 am — Leans Republican — #4
Long Thompson said she supports offering students a fifth year of high school to boost Indiana's graduation rate, The Associated Press reported.

September 4, 2008 - 11:12 am — Leans Republican — #4
Long Thompson is calling for Daniels to reimburse the state
for what she calls political campaigning at taxpayer expense,
according the Journal Gazette.

August 26, 2008 - 10:34 pm — Leans Republican — #4

Republican Governor Mitch Daniels attended a campaign rally Aug. 26 at the Purdue Memorial Mall.

The Journal Gazette reports that the Indiana Farm Bureau ELECT -- the political action committee affiliated with the Indiana Farm Bureau -- will not endorse either Daniels Long Thompson for governor.

August 18, 2008 - 2:04 pm — Leans Republican — #4

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is leading the way in using new technology and the youth movement to propel his presidential campaign and Indiana's gubernatorial candidates are following suit. Daniels launched his own social networking site and Thompson is putting together a staff largely younger than 30 as reported in the Fort Wayne Journal Gazette.

August 14, 2008 - 9:31 pm — Leans Republican — #4
Democrat Jill Long Thompson announced her plan to create an insurance co-op for small businesses while speaking Thursday at Superior Water Conditioning in Fort Wayne.

August 11, 2008 - 10:40 am — Leans Republican — #4

The Indianapolis Star reports that debates have been scheduled.

"Gov. Mitch Daniels, a Republican seeking his second term as the state's leader, and his Democratic challenger, former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson, have agreed to take part in the debates, which will be hosted by a new Indiana Debate Commission. Libertarian Party nominee Andy Horning will also take part. The debates, which will be televised live, will be Sept. 16 at the Star Plaza Theatre in Merrillville; Sept. 23 at the Jasper Arts Center in Jasper; and Oct. 14 at the Indiana University Auditorium in Bloomington."

August 11, 2008 - 10:09 am — Leans Republican — #4
With Barack Obama vacationing in Hawaii this coming week, the attention shifts from Sen. Evan Bayh’s vice presidential prospects to the Indiana gubernatorial race where both campaigns are expected to announce policy rollouts, Howey Political Report says.

August 6, 2008 - 3:47 pm
Might U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, take an active interest in the Indiana governor's race? Politicker.com's James W. Pindell considers the what-ifs if Barack Obama chooses U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh as his runningmate just as Schumer aims to get a filibuster-proof 60-seat Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate. If Obama picks Bayh, the new governor picks his replacement.

July 31, 2008 - 5:49 pm

Democratic challenger Jill Long Thompson aired her first television ad on Tuesday talking about the econony and taking aim at Gov. Mitch Daniels.

"When this governor says our economy is in great shape, he is out of touch with the challenges facing Hoosier families," she says in the 30-second ad.

Meanwhile, the Associated Press notes that two large unions in this manufacturing state, the United Auto Workers union and AFL-CIO, still haven't endorsed Thompson.

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Comments

Jill Long Thompson


Jill is the best candidate for Governor of Indiana. She will not let businesses hurt the working people. We cannot let Mitch back in! He will continue to kill middle class worker and make them poverty level!

10/09/08 12:51 pm

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