America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 1, 2008


Safe
Democratic
#5
Montana Governor
Incumbent: Brian Schweitzer (D)
Last Week's Rank: #5

2008 Candidates

Brian Schweitzer (D)

Governor

Roy Brown (R)

State Senator

About the Race

CANDIDATES: The Democratic candidate is Gov. Brian Schweitzer; State Sen. Roy Brown is the Republican contender.

RACE PROFILE: Freshman Gov. Brian Schweitzer has become the example of what a successful Western Democratic governor looks like. He is a moderate and recent polls show him with a 70 percent approval rating. Republican state Sen. Roy Brown is the Republican nominee.

Race Updates

November 12, 2008 - 3:22 pm — Safe Democratic — #5
Schweitzer didn't have any problems winning a second term. He won 65 percent to 33 percent.

November 7, 2008 - 9:51 am — Safe Democratic — #5
Schweitzer beat Brown with 65 percent of the vote, according to The Washington Post.

November 3, 2008 - 2:54 pm — Safe Democratic — #5
Schweitzer's lead is 26 points, 62 percent to 36 percent, in a new Public Policy Polling survey.

November 3, 2008 - 2:54 pm — Safe Democratic — #5
Schweitzer's lead is 26 points, 62 percent to 36 percent, in a new Public Policy Polling survey.

November 3, 2008 - 2:54 pm — Safe Democratic — #5
Schweitzer's lead is 26 points, 62 percent to 36 percent, in a new Public Policy Polling survey.

October 27, 2008 - 12:27 pm — Safe Democratic — #5
Brown and Schweitzer's final debate of the race on Thursday was marked by several contentious moments, according to The Associated Press.

October 22, 2008 - 11:12 am — Safe Democratic — #5
Schweitzer still has a money lead, according to The Associated Press. The Democrat has $560,000 in his campaign coffers and Brown has $105,000. Brown, though, has bested Schweitzer in fundraising since early September. Schweitzer raised $85,000 and Brown raised $107,000.

October 17, 2008 - 1:10 pm — Safe Democratic — #8
Brown is accusing Democrats of spreading a rumor via e-mail that he is a vegetarian, an unpopular choice in what the Billings Gazette describes as "this meat-loving state." "I am not and have never been a vegetarian," Brown said, adding that he and his family reduced their intake of meat and dairy products a quarter of a century ago because a dying loved ones couldn't consume them.

October 9, 2008 - 12:44 pm — Safe Democratic — #8
In their first one-on-one debate on Tuesday, the candidates clashed over taxes, energy and the economic downturn, according to The Associated Press.

October 3, 2008 - 1:22 pm — Safe Democratic — #8
According to a new Rasmussen Reports poll, Schweitzer leads Brown by 15 points, 56 percent to 41 percent. The last time the poll was taken, in July, Schweitzer led 56 percent to 32 percent. Fifty-eight percent of respondents rated the incumbent Democrat's job performance as good or excellent, and 19 percent rated it as poor.

October 1, 2008 - 12:54 pm — Safe Democratic — #8
A pollster for Brown said that the recent polling data that showed Brown up by 4 points were the result of an "educated ballot" poll, the Great Falls Tribune reports. "The poll numbers ... do not reflect sentiment before respondents heard statements (about the candidates)," said Kelly Middendorff, vice president of project management for Moore Information.

September 25, 2008 - 12:51 pm — Safe Democratic — #8

A new Montana Democratic Party poll shows Schweitzer with a 39-point lead in the race, but Brown's campaign was quick to call the poll "laughable" and a "desperate attempt to stop the bleeding for a campaign that's floundering."
http://www.greatfallstribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080924/NEWS01/809240302

As if to counter a recent poll from the Schweitzer camp claiming the Democratic candidate is up by nearly 40 points, a Moore Information/Roy Brown poll released Thursday shows Brown leading 46 percent to 42 percent.

Barack Obama tapped Schweitzer for his new Clean Coal Jobs Task Force on Wednesday, the Great Falls Tribune reports. The task force will further the candidates "commitment to creating new jobs and energy independence through clean coal," according to the Obama campaign.

September 19, 2008 - 12:58 pm — Safe Democratic — #9
Brown vowed Wednesday to cut property taxes if elected, The Associated Press is reporting. He said the reduction could help average homeowners by $50 a year.

September 16, 2008 - 12:43 pm — Safe Democratic — #9
During their first debate, Schweitzer and Brown struggled to express their support for higher education but did not make any game-changing statements, according to The Billings Gazette. They also both competed to show off their tax-cutting records and promise to keep taxes low.

During his featured comments at Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin's annual steak fry, Schweitzer said the addition of Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket doesn't take the West out of play for Democrats, according to The Associated Press. "She's not the only one whose been around a moose," said Schweitzer said. "I have too." He attributed the recent trend toward McCain across the country to his post-convention bounce: "Polls bounce back and forth," he said. "They were about tied when they started and they're about tied now."

September 15, 2008 - 1:08 pm — Safe Democratic — #9
Brown said that if Schweitzer was truly joking about tampering with the November 2006 election in a peculiar July speech that recently became public, he should be open to an attorney general's investigation, according to The Missoulian. "If I were governor, I would want a quick and fast investigation," Brown said. "I would open up everything that I had. I would ask the attorney general to come forward and go ahead and investigate because I would have nothing to hide."

September 12, 2008 - 1:07 pm — Safe Democratic — #9
Schweitzer apologized for jokingly suggesting in a speech that he had tampered with the 2006 congressional election in Montana, according to The Associated Press. He said he was joking when he said tribal police drove Republican poll watchers from American Indiana reservations. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Brad Johnson is asking the attorney general to investigate the comments, citing a citizen complaint.


September 10, 2008 - 3:41 pm — Safe Democratic — #9

Schweitzer is making a surprise appearance in the McCain campaign. In an effort to show that adding Sarah Palin to the ticket will strengthen the ticket's chances in the West, the McCain campaign is distributing remarks Schweitzer made to The New York Times in April, according to The Washington Times. "In Montana," Schweitzer said, "we like our guns. We like big guns. We like little guns. We like shotguns. We like pistols. Most of us own two or three guns. Gun control is hitting what you shoot at."

According to the National Institute on Money in State Politics, Schweitzer's fundraising base is much more dispersed. He has received 97 percent of his funds from about 7,000 individuals, while Brown got 88 percent of his take from 1,400 inviduals.

September 9, 2008 - 11:06 am — Safe Democratic — #9
Schweitzer will be the headline speaker on Sept. 14 at U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin's annual steak fry near Indianola, Iowa, adding to speculation about the Democrat's seemingly bright future, the L.A. Times is reporting. Past speakers of the prominent annual event include Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Al Gore. "His outstanding speech at the Democratic National Convention was truly inspirational, and I know he will bring that same level of excitement to Iowa as we fire up for this year's election," Harkin said.

Schweitzer's Democratic National Convention speech is being touted as one of the convention's top rhetorical accomplishments, garnering adjectives like "fiery" and "rip-roaring. The Washington Post ranks it the fifth best speech of either convention, trailing only Fred Thompson, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and Sarah Palin.

September 8, 2008 - 11:34 am — Safe Democratic — #9
Schweitzer did not fill out this year's Project Vote Smart survey, though he did in 2004, The Associated Press reports. Brown was among the 41 percent of legislative candidates in the state who did.

September 5, 2008 - 11:14 am — Safe Democratic — #9
Coming off his well-received speech at the Democratic convention last week, Schweitzer is drawing speculation that he would be asked to take a post in Barack Obama's cabinet, according to The Hill's Blog Briefing Room.

September 4, 2008 - 11:18 am — Safe Democratic — #9
From the Republican National Convention, Brown commented on Sarah Palin's nomination as vice president and her daughter's
pregnancy, according to KPAX. "I'm a parent too, and we all have difficulties with our kids," Brown said. "But I think overall the people of Montana, I've never seen the people of Montana so excited about a candidate before."

August 26, 2008 - 10:43 pm — Safe Democratic — #9
On Aug. 26, Gov. Brian Schweitzer will deliver a prime-time speech at the Democratic National Convention in Denver according to The Missoulian.

August 18, 2008 - 2:11 pm — Safe Democratic — #9

The Billings Gazette has the first analysis of a political television commercial. This report looks at Schweitzer's most recent re-election campaign commercial. Their analysis says the TV spot repeats many of the claims Schweitzer has made in speeches around the state in recent years. Schweitzer cites figures to back up his claims, while the campaign of his Republican opponent, Brown, provided statistics disputing some of the governor's claims.

August 14, 2008 - 9:41 pm — Safe Democratic — #9

Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer is being given a speaking role at the Democratic National Convention in Denver as reported on Montana'sNewsStation.com. Schweitzer is one of six Democratic governors scheduled to speak at the convention on Aug. 26.

August 12, 2008 - 8:17 am — Safe Democratic — #9

The Helena Independent Record continues its series on Schweitzer's first term by writing on Brown's signature issue against Schweitzer: his "startling growth".

“The people of Montana do not want to sit back and let the governor continue with four more years of reckless spending,” the Brown, Billings senator told the Montana Republican Party convention in June.

The paper notes Schweitzer's rebuttal: “He says we should spend less, but for the last seven months he has not been able to come up with a single place he would cut — not one, not one program, not one dollar.”
 

 

July 31, 2008 - 7:38 pm
Republican gubernatorial candidate Roy Brown demanded that Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer apologize for what he called "a clear and intentional lie" over an interstate compact on brucellosis. The AP reported that Schweitzer said he hadn't signed a revised interstate compact with the governors of Wyoming and Idaho to address brucellosis when, in fact, he had. 

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