America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 3, 2008


Leans
Republican
#10
FL-25
Incumbent: Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
Last Week's Rank: #10

2008 Candidates

Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

Congressman

Joe Garcia (D)

Former Miami-Dade Democratic Chairman

About the Race

Like his brother Lincoln, Mario Diaz-Balart, a third term congressman, shouldn't be in trouble this cycle. The heavily Cuban-American district has historically trended Republican, with President Bush winning 56 percent and 55 percent of the district's vote in 2000 and 2004. But like his brother, Mario has failed to put his race away. Garcia has proven himself to be an able fundraiser, taking in $1 million - just about matching his Republican opponent. Garcia, a Miami-Dade County Democratic chairman, is also a strong candidate with significant ties to the district. Democrats and Republicans are likely to have their eye on this race heading into the final weeks of the campaign.

Race Updates

October 29, 2008 - 9:28 pm — Leans Republican — #29

A Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos finds Diaz-Balart leading Garcia 46 percent to 43 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters, conducted Oct. 20-22, has an error margin of 4.9 percent.


October 19, 2008 - 9:51 pm — Leans Republican — #29

Garcia and Diaz-Balart clashed over healthcare in an Oct. 15 debate.

October 16, 2008 - 5:54 pm — Leans Republican — #29

The Miami Herald has endorsed Diaz-Balart.

A poll conducted by the Democratic firm Hamilton Campaigns finds Diaz-Balart leading Garica 45 percent to 42 percent. The survey of 500 likely voters, conducted Oct. 8-9, has an error margin of 4.4 percent.

October 13, 2008 - 3:43 pm — Leans Republican — #32
Diaz-Balart and Garcia clashed over the bailout in an Oct. 8 debate.

October 7, 2008 - 10:39 pm — Leans Republican — #32

A poll conducted for Diaz-Balart finds the Republican leading Garcia 46 percent to 39 percent. The survey of 300 likely voters, conducted Oct. 2-5, has a margin of error of 5.7 percent.

A Carlos McDonald poll finds Diaz-Balart leading Garcia 43 percent to 41 percent. The survey of 300 registered voters, conducted Sept. 27-Oct. 1, has a margin of error of 5.7 percent.

October 1, 2008 - 4:17 pm — Leans Republican — #43

A Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos finds Diaz-Balart leading Garcia 45 percent to 41 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters, conducted Sept. 23-Sept. 2 5, has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

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