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About the Pindell Report


America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 3, 2008


Leans
Republican
#8
FL-21
Incumbent: Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)
Last Week's Rank: #8

2008 Candidates

Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)

Congressman

Raul Martinez (D)

Former Hialeah Mayor

About the Race

ABOUT THE RACE: Republican U.S. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart is running for his eighth term. The Democratic candidate is former Hialeah mayor and public relations consultant Raul Martinez. Diaz-Balart carried the seat with 59 percent of the vote in 2006. George W. Bush won the district with 57 percent of the vote in 2004.

 

 

RACE PROFILE: It would be a stretch to say that Democrats are likely to pick up this seat, which runs from an area southwest of Miami to the city's western sections. The heavily Cuban-American district is solidly Republican, backing Bush with large margins in 2000 and 2004 and electing Diaz-Balart overwhelmingly for eight consecutive cycles. But Democrats have found a strong candidate in Martinez, who in July announced that he had outraised Diaz-Balart in second quarter funds and had an impressive $1.1 million in cash-on-hand. Diaz-Balart hasn't had to worry about re-election before, but this cycle he is going to have to work to defeat a Cuban-American who happens to be a former mayor of a city that resides in the district. Looking for proof that this seat it in play: the National Republican Congressional Committee has reserved $1 million in advertising time to defend the incumbent

ANALYSIS: We’re stepping out there a bit on this one, but we think the demographic changes in the district and Obama’s expected strong showing in the state benefits Martinez.

 

 

 

Race Updates

November 7, 2008 - 12:49 am — Leans Republican — #8

With 100 percent of the precincts reporting, Diaz-Balart has defeated Martinez 58 percent to 42 percent.

October 29, 2008 - 9:22 pm — Leans Democratic — #6

A Research 2000 poll conducted for Daily Kos shows Diaz-Balart leading Martinez 45 percent to 44 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters, conducted Oct. 20-23, has an error margin of 4.9 percent.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has a new television advertisement calling Martinez a “crooked and sleazy” politician.

October 19, 2008 - 9:42 pm — Toss up — #10

Martinez has a new television advertisement calling Diaz-Balart a "rubberstamp" for President Bush.

Diaz-Balart hit Martinez for his public corruption conviction in an Oct. 16 debate.

Martinez and Diaz-Balart clashed over taxes in an Oct. 15 debate.

October 16, 2008 - 5:51 pm — Toss up — #10

The Miami Herald has endorsed Martinez.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has a new television advertisement focused on alleged corruption on Martinez's part.

Martinez and Diaz-Balart clashed over Martinez's legal record in an Oct. 12 debate.

October 13, 2008 - 3:14 pm — Leans Republican — #23

Democrats are alleging Diaz-Balart of accepting unreported campaign money from a prominent Puerto Rican family, the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.

October 7, 2008 - 10:38 pm — Leans Republican — #23
A Carlos McDonald poll finds Diaz-Balart leading Martinez 48 percent to 43 percent. The survey of 300 registered voters, conducted Sept. 27-Oct. 1, has a margin of error of 5.7 percent

September 29, 2008 - 11:57 am — Leans Republican — #39

Diaz-Balart is out with a new television advertisement taking aim at Martinez for his conviction during the 1990s for racketing and public corruption.

September 25, 2008 - 12:17 am — Leans Republican — #39

Diaz-Balart is out with a new television advertisement targeting Garcia on his ties to Enron.

September 18, 2008 - 9:01 pm — Leans Republican — #39

Diaz-Balart is challenging Martinez to return contributions he received from U.S. Rep. Charlie Rangel, the Miami Herald reports.

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