Pindell Report forecasts biggest Election Day for Democrats in 60 years

Politicker.com's James Pindell says Democrats will pick up 7 Senate seats, 16 House seats; won't get filibuster-proof majority in Senate

NEW YORK -- With two weeks until Election Day, Democrats are set to pick up seven seats in the U.S. Senate and 16 in the House, according to James Pindell, the editor of Politicker.com's Pindell Report, which provides independent analysis of federal- and state-level races.

"The economy, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush combine to push several Senate and House races that were toss-ups last week into the Democratic column," said Pindell. "While the Democrats will control the White House and both houses of Congress, they will not be able to secure the 60 Senate seats they need for a filibuster-proof majority."

For the 111th Congress, The Pindell Report forecasts the Senate at 58-41 (counting two Independent lawmakers caucusing with the Democratic majority) and the House at 252-180. The Senate race in Alaska, and three House races (in Florida, New Mexico and Kansas), remain toss-ups.

Pindell said that Republican Sens. Norm Coleman (Minn.), Elizabeth Dole (N.C.), Gordon Smith (Ore.), and John Sununu (N.H.) will be defeated, and that Democrats will win the seats of retiring Republican senators in Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia. Pindell believes three Republicans in tough re-election contests -- Mitch McConnell (Ky.), Saxby Chambliss (Ga.) and Roger Wicker (Miss.) -- will win narrowly.

"A jury in Washington, D.C., will decide if Ted Stevens gets re-elected," said Pindell. "If Stevens is acquitted, he'll keep his seat."

In the House, two incumbents are in toss-up races -- Democrat Nancy Boyda (KS-2) and Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21) -- as is the open seat in New Mexico's 1st district, now held by the GOP.

Nine Republican House members will lose their seats, Pindell said. They are Reps. Marilyn Musgrave (CO-4), Phil English (PA-3), Randy Kuhl (NY-29), Tim Walberg (MI-7), Joe Knollenberg (MI-9), Tom Feeney (FL-24), Jon Porter (NV-3), Robin Hayes (NC-8) and Don Young (AK-At Large).

But Republicans will unseat three Democratic Congressmen: Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), Tim Mahoney (FL-16) and Nick Lampson (TX-22). Republicans will also capture the seat of retiring Democrat Bud Cramer (AL-5).

Democrats will pick up seven seats in districts where Republican incumbents are not seeking re-election, including the seats of Deborah Pryce (OH-15), Ralph Regula (OH-16), Jim Saxton (NJ-3), Mike Ferguson (NJ-7), Rick Renzi (AZ-1), Vito Fosella (NY-13) and Jim Walsh (NY-25).

Pindell noted that 16 seats could be the low mark for Democrats. When Republican-leaning seats are added, Democrats could win up to 40 House seats.

Pindell will present the latest edition of The Pindell Report Wednesday evening at the National Press Club in Washington at an event co-sponsored by Politicker.com and George Washington University's Institute for Politics, Democracy and the Internet.

In the presidential race, Barack Obama will pick up 321 electoral votes while John McCain will secure 171, said Pindell, who believes the only toss-up states remaining are Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio.

"Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio are all too close to call," said Pindell. "But the truth is they really aren't battlegrounds anymore. The battle is over and Obama has won."

In this Democratic tidal wave, the re-election of one Democratic governor is a toss-up. In Washington state, Gov. Christine Gregoire faces a rematch with former State Sen. Dino Rossi in a contest that could defy the national trend, according to Pindell.

"Washington hasn't elected a Republican governor since 1980, but this might be the only place where Republicans celebrate on Election Night," Pindell said.

It will be most successful year for Democrats since 1948 when President Harry Truman got over 300 electoral votes and Democrats picked up 9 Senate seats and 75 House seats.  

TO MEMBERS OF THE MEDIA: Those wishing to speak to James Pindell about his Election Day forecast should contact Politicker.com Deputy Managing Editor Michael Grass at michael.grass@politicker.com.