As Ohio goes ... the nation may not go

The 2004 Electoral Map with Ohio on the fence: Politicker PhotoIs Ohio's reign as the single must win state for the presidency over?

As a handful of states across the country show fresh signs of swinging from one partisan column to another, it appears that Barack Obama and possibly John McCain could lose Ohio and still win the presidency.

Using the 2004 electoral map as a foundation, Obama could lose Ohio and win three Western states he's targeted prominently: Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. The total electoral votes from those three states are one short of Ohio's 20, but taking them from McCain would give Obama 271 votes in the Electoral College - one more than he needs to win. Alternatively, Obama could win Iowa and add either Virginia or Missouri to survive and Ohio loss.

Political analyst and University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato said Obama's campaign thinks it has the money, the standing and the enthusiasm to compete in 10 states more than a typical Democratic presidential campaign.

"I think Obama's strategy is [to] carpet bomb" those 10 states, Sabato said. "So you play hard in all of them, and you hope to win the two or three additional ones you need for victory."

The Obama campaign said it believes it can win the White House without Ohio by adding new states but said it's not writing off the Buckeye State.

"While Senator Obama has the ability to expand the electoral map, we have every intention of competing and winning in Ohio and doing whatever it takes to win here," said Obama spokesperson Issac Baker. "We're taking this state as seriously it's ever been taken."

Earlier this month PolitickerOH.com reported that Obama's campaign will have 300 paid organizers in Ohio to get out the vote and is closely coordinating with the Ohio Democratic Party to identify and persuade households throughout the state.

That GOTV effort doesn't impress McCain's Ohio campaign manager, Jon Seaton.

"You don't need a bunch of paid organizers when you have as strong of a volunteer base as we have in the state of Ohio," Seaton said of the Republican turnout machine. "It's congruent. It's worked; it's worked in Ohio in 2004."

Sabato was much grimmer about McCain's chances to survive an Ohio defeat.

"As you look at the map, the parameters are closing in on McCain. That's not to say he can't win; he himself says he's the underdog," Sabato said. "If he loses those 20 key red electoral votes that produced Bush's re-election then he has to make them up some place."

Good news for McCain's Ohio chances came in the form of a Rasmussen poll showing him 6 points ahead of Obama, growing to a 10-point lead with "leaners" added.

In the event that McCain were to lose Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania are the most-plausible replacements, Sabato said.

A poll of Michigan voters released yesterday showed the race virtually tied between Obama and McCain, with the senator from Illinois leading his Republican counterpart by two points. However, Sabato said voting history is should be trusted more than polls because most people vote consistently over time.

The last Republican presidential candidate to win Michigan was George H.W. Bush in 1988.

"Electoral histories are more compelling than polls because voting is like inertia for a large portion of the electorate," Sabato said.

McCain is even less likely to win Pennsylvania, Sabato said. His only chance to do so would rely on picking former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge to be vice president. Ridge, however, told PolitickerPA.com that said he's unaware if he's being vetted a vice presidential candidate.

Doing so would cost McCain more votes throughout the country than he would pick up in the Keystone State because Ridge supports abortion-rights - a stance that would drive pro-life voters away from the GOP.

In his interview with PolitickerPA.com, Ridge said "it's a steep climb" for McCain to win in Pennsylvania, but he said McCain's appeal to independent voters keeps him in the race for the state's votes.

Seaton, who is also the McCain campaign manager for Pennsylvania, echoed Ridge's belief that McCain can appeal to independents and some Democrats - to say nothing of Obama's primary loss there against Hillary Clinton.

"I think we have a very, very strong chance in Pennsylvania, regardless of who is running mate is. I think it's a state that will set up very well for us," Seaton said.

As for Ohio itself, Sabato said the state is far from irrelevant to the presidential contest, but at this point this year it appears that Ohio's winner will not necessarily be the nation's winner.

"Ohio has been, is now and will continue to be one of the critical swing states that is targeted every four years," Sabato said. "Very few states can make that claim. That's good news for Ohio but it doesn't mean Ohio will be the critical state every four years."