McCain's options for convention keynote speaker

U.S. Sen. John McCainU.S. Sen. John McCain's balancing act of being a maverick while at the same time appealing to conservative Republicans is not a new dynamic. His independent nature in the Senate and in the presidential race might be the only way a Republican this election year can appeal to swing voters, but in 2004 it was the base that helped President Bush win re-election. And while Republicans have had time to heal some of their own complicated feelings about McCain since he clinched his party's nomination, this drama is about to play out all over again in the national convention.

Understandably much speculation has already been spent as to McCain will pick as his running mate. Unlike George W. Bush as the Republican nominee in 2000, McCain has not established a committee on the subject and he is said to largely keep his own counsel in who he will select. But next to selecting his running mate, his most important decision at the Republican National Convention is picking a keynote speaker.

Recently national conventions, as media events, have been the chance for candidates to present their messages to a swath of Americans who are only beginning to think about the election, according to Costas Panagopoulos, a Fordham political science professor and author of "Lights, Camera, Nominate: National Political Conventions in the Media Age".

"For the 10 to 15 percent of Americans who casually pay attention to politics this is when you put your best foot forward and your best argument," Panagopoulos said.

University of California-Berkeley professor David Karol said the criteria McCain should look for in a keynote speaker are youth, telegenic appearance, and the perfect mix of being both a strong conservative, but also have broader appeal. The choice doesn't have to be a minority or a woman to counterbalance the Democratic race for president, but according to Karol, it should be a consideration. As should a Hispanic politician given the climate surrounding the immigration issue.

If McCain cannot find someone with the perfect balance of conservative and independent appeal he should err on the side of more independent appeal both professors suggest given how soon Election Day will be after the convention.

Historically there appears to be two different philosophies for picking a convention keynote speaker. For Democrats, it is about highlighting a rising star. For Republicans, the keynote speaker is about finding the right person to reinforce your message. So it is that for McCain has more riding on his decision.

Since 1940 there have been 34 national political convention keynote speakers. Seven of the 17 Democrats who spoke -- Robert Kerr, Alban Barkley, Paul Dever, Frank Church, Mario Cuomo, Evan Bayh and Barack Obama -- used the keynote address to either launch later presidential bids or at least seriously consider one.

For Republicans being keynote speaker has not been a path to political gold. In fact, only four -- Harold Stassen, Walter Judd, Howard Baker, and Phil Gramm -- ran for president afterward. Indeed for most Republican keynote speakers their speech was the height of the political career. In 1948, Dwight Green delivered the keynote address only to go home and lose re-election for Illinois governor to Adlai Stevenson. Four years later Gen. Douglas McArthur bombed so badly in his speech it was said to cost his friend U.S. Sen. Bob Taft the presidential nomination. In 1960, Washington Gov. Arthur Langlie delivered the keynote and lost his U.S. Senate race months later. In 1980, U.S. Rep. Guy Vander Jagt tried to take momentum from his speech to become House minority leader, but lost. Both the 1996 keynote speaker Susan Molinari and 2004 speaker Zell Miller are almost forgotten about. Then again, for Republicans speakers, this isn't the point.

In fact Republicans seem to be more concerned about picking a keynote speaker not to build their political bench, but to have a person represent a certain demographic or message like a woman, Hispanic, African-American, or even a Democrat.

So who might McCain consider for his keynote speaker? Below is a list of 17 names placed in four categories: inclusion (women, minitories); rising stars; those who aid in the campaign narrative and conservatives. Certainly there are some who could be put in multiple categories. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal is both of Indian descent and as the country's youngest governor, a rising star. The same could be said of new Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a female rising star. One group of prominent speakers McCain might overlook are those who ran against him for president. Traditionally all who run a credible campaign are given speaking spots at the convention anyway. That said, I did make an exception for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who charmed many this year and was the last major candidate to drop out.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby JindalInclusion pick: Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal
In October, Jindal won a four-way contest to become governor of his challenged state. In so doing, at 36, he became the nation's youngest governor, the first Indian-American governor and the first non-white governor of Louisiana since Reconstruction. Jindal, an Ivy-League educated son of immigrants, is also beloved among conservatives. Talk-show host Rush Limbaugh has called him "the second Reagan" and has promoted the idea that McCain should pick him as his vice president.

At the same time he could also be too conservative for McCain's maverick persona. With less than a hundred days before the general election McCain might be looking for someone with more name recognition and broader appeal to independents. But just the image of the young, ethic governor from a state that is a political rallying call after Hurricane Katrina is very attractive.

Other inclusion category possibilities: Former eBay president Meg Whitman, New Mexico U.S. Rep./U.S. Sen. candidate Heather Wilson, North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez

Florida Gov. Charlie CristRising Star pick: Florida Gov. Charlie Crist
On Jan. 26, John McCain was trying desperately to establish himself as the Republican front-runner. He picked up momentum out of his New Hampshire win, but so far he was just one for three in terms of state contests. On this day he ended up narrowly winning in South Carolina, but it was something that happened that night, at the most crucial time of the Republican race for president: Crist endorsed him. Three days later McCain won Florida. It placed his only real competitor, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, at a point of no return, and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani dropped out immediately after losing the Sunshine State.

As with any risk there are things to be gained or lost. Crist put his neck out on the line and many Florida observers say it made all the difference for McCain. If he doesn't select Crist for vice president, he would be an excellent pick for keynote speaker. Solidly conservative, but soft in his delivery, Crist brands himself as "the people's governor."

The reason why he wouldn't pick Crist is that he is an older white male at a time when Democrats will have already nominated a woman or African-American as their choice for president. But, then again, Crist does come from Florida, a state whose delegates might not even be seated at the Democratic convention.

Other rising star possibilities: Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman

U.S. Sen. Joe LiebermanCampaign Narrative pick: Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman
McCain might also decide that what he wants out of a keynote speaker is not someone who looks good, or represents the future, but someone whose very presence on the stage makes a statement. Lieberman is technically an Independent, but he still caucuses with Senate Democrats and most of the American public still identifies him with the Democratic Party. It is Lieberman's cross-over appeal that allows him to speak into the camera and not the convention floor as a voice of reason. He can say that the Iraq war is not a political issue, but a national security issue.

It is not like a Democrat speaking at the Republican convention is unprecedented. At the last convention out-going Democratic Georgia Sen. Zell Miller did just that. Unlike Miller, Lieberman has been basically attached to the hip with McCain campaigning with him through several primary states. He is now the Republicans' favorite Democrat.

Plus, Lieberman has already agreed to do it. Asked last month by The Hill newspaper whether he would be McCain's keynote speaker Lieberman said, "If Sen. McCain, who I support so strongly, asked me to do it, if he thinks it will help him, I will."

Other campaign narrative possibilities: Maj. Gen. David Petraeus and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike HuckabeeConservative pick: Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee
In terms of pure speaking ability, Huckabee is one of the top Republicans in the country. That combined with his stature as former governor of a Democratic state and his strong social conservative values he might be an easy pick for McCain if his goal is to placate the conservative base. Huckabee can do that and tell enough jokes along the way that he can also keep a national audience.

There are also reasons not to pick him. First, Huckabee has a number of critics who say he is not conservative enough when it comes to economic issues or his large number of pardons he issued as governor. Second, as a former presidential candidate he will likely be given a speaking slot anyway.

Other conservative picks: Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. and U.S. Rep. Mike Pence of Indiana

Please use the comments section to say who you think McCain should pick to mention those I left out.