Anthony Weiner. (Photo: Getty)

Former Congressman Anthony Weiner, who announced his highly-anticipated mayoral campaign in the wee hours of the morning today, has not managed to make up much ground in public polling since he floated his name a month ago. Indeed, his percentage in the Democratic primary--15 percent--is the exact same in today's Quinnipiac poll as the firm's April 19 survey.

According to new numbers out this morning, 49 percent of the electorate thinks Mr. Weiner should not run for mayor while just 38 percent say he should. Female voters in particular reacted with negativity at Mr. Weiner's return--52 percent said he shouldn't pursue his Gracie Mansion ambitions. This is despite Mr. Weiner's flurry of emotional television interviews seeking to soften his image in the aftermath of infamous two-year-old Twitter scandal.

“Should Weiner run? More, especially women, say no,” Maurice Carroll, the pollster's director, noted in a statement. “Weiner has been at 15 percent two polls in a row. Can he get to 16 percent?”

Overall, Mr. Weiner remains in second place, behind Council Speaker Christine Quinn, whose standing continues to slip. While several months ago Ms. Quinn was approaching the 40 percent threshold needed to avoid a run-off election, today she stands at just 25 percent. Two other candidates, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio and 2009 nominee Bill Thompson, are tied with 10 percent apiece, and Comptroller John Liu is in fifth place with 6 percent.

“With former Congressman Anthony Weiner seeking the Democratic nod, it still looks like Council Speaker Christine Quinn against the guys,” Mr. Carroll said. “But where she once was brushing up against the magic 40 percent number that could get her past a run-off, the wear and tear of the campaign, and possibly the addition of Weiner, are taking a toll on the front-runner."

He added, “This poll says there’s a run-off. It just doesn’t say who’s in the runoff.”

View the full results below:

Art by Brian Taylor

The week before Vito Lopez resigned, the state ethics commission released a scathing 68-page report that detailed a lurid pattern of abuse in his district office.

According to the allegations, the former assemblyman once lamented the existence of statutory rape laws in the presence of a 14-year-old intern. Mr. Lopez demanded massages from female staffers, including one who cried and expressed her discomfort as a former rape victim. At a bar one evening, he grabbed an employee’s hands from across the table. When she tried to pull away, he tightened his grip. When she began to cry, Mr. Lopez said he’d release her only after she counted to 60. When she did, he stared at her for the full minute.

After resigning from his Assembly seat on Monday morning, Mr. Lopez is said to be contemplating a seemingly unfathomable second act: running for City Council. Given the accusations against him, what’s more surprising is that even his detractors acknowledge that Mr. Lopez actually has a viable path to victory.

The key to his support is a career of aggressive local advocacy that goes back four decades. As an ambitious young politician, Mr. Lopez founded a far-reaching social service network that relied on public funding and over time, ushered in significant neighborhood improvements to Bushwick, a section of Brooklyn once plagued by violence, arson and riots. Despite the unsavory headlines, Mr. Lopez is still held in high regard among the beneficiaries of his efforts. “I don’t believe that’s true,” Gloria Bonilla, 61, said of the allegations as she left a red-bricked Melrose Avenue building Mr. Lopez helped fund. “I don’t care what anyone says.”

“Who knows if it was just someone making up lies?” asked another building resident who declined to give her name. “I give him the benefit of the doubt.”

“He’s giving low-income families the opportunity to have beautiful apartments in Brooklyn,” she added, gesturing to the buildings she’s lived in for the past three years, which Mr. Lopez helped create.

"Thank You Assemblyman Vito J. Lopez" (Photo: Colin Campbell)

The sunny buildings, with their bright blue and cream accents, stand out in the working-class, largely Latino neighborhood. A sign above one entrance reads “Thank You Assemblyman Vito J. Lopez.” Meanwhile, at a nearby intersection, the three other corners are empty lots, secured with graffiti-covered corrugated metal walls, barbed wire and padlocks.

Manuel Sanchez, 45, born in the Dominican Republic, has lived in the complex for two years. Despite limited English, his eyes lit up when he heard Mr. Lopez’s name.

“This building, this whole block, he did it,” Mr. Sanchez said. He said he’d heard about the allegations (“something about secretaries”), but has voted for Mr. Lopez numerous times and wouldn’t hesitate to do so again.

In a city where most New Yorkers are hard-pressed to name their local assemblyman, how did Mr. Lopez become a household name in his district? Fresh out of Yeshiva University with a degree in social work, in 1973 the Bensonhurst-born Mr. Lopez founded the Ridgewood Bushwick Senior Citizens Council to deliver sorely needed services. In 1984, a seat opened up in the State Assembly, and Mr. Lopez’s connections in the community enabled him to seize it.

By the time Clarence Norman, then the head of Kings County Democratic Party, was convicted of corruption in 2005, Mr. Lopez had enough support to replace him. As head of the county organization, he could reward allies with judgeships and electoral support—and threaten foes with primary challenges. That influence, combined with his perch on the Assembly’s housing committee, allowed Mr. Lopez to funnel millions of dollars into Ridgewood Bushwick, which in turn provided him with name recognition, supporters and volunteers, both in his own district and neighboring ones.

“Vito created a new model of a contemporary political machine,” Lincoln Restler, a northern Brooklyn Democratic activist and Vito antagonist, explained in an interview. “Gone are the days of widespread patronage in city government that district leaders and county government could deliver to their constituents. Vito created a nonprofit as a vehicle for delivering services to his political loyalists.”

Rather than the outright graft of the Boss Tweed era, nonprofits provide a more above-board mechanism for moving taxpayer dollars around. Mr. Lopez’s organization grew into a sprawling social services empire providing housing, health care, youth activities and senior centers to Bushwick, Williamsburg, Ridgewood and surrounding areas, while employing some 2,000 people. They included Mr. Lopez’s girlfriend, Angela Battaglia, who reportedly made $352,000 as Ridgewood Bushwick’s housing director in 2011. Up until recently, Mr. Lopez’s campaign treasurer was the nonprofit’s executive director.

“He has been involved in delivering services and doling out favors for a very long time to the people who live in this district,” Mr. Restler said. “There are more abuelitas—more grandmothers—who have had Vito sit at their dining room table in this district than you would believe. Accordingly, a remarkable percentage of the people in this district and the surrounding areas have been unwilling to believe that this sexual misconduct is true.”

If Mr. Lopez runs for City Council, his main opponent will be Antonio Reynoso, a former chief of staff to term-limited Councilwoman Diana Reyna--whose district he is now vying to represent. Mr. Reynoso, an energetic 30-year-old who biked over to a Williamsburg cafe to discuss the race last Friday, is a strong contrast to the 71-year-old Mr. Lopez, whose hulking frame can fill up a room. Where Mr. Lopez is quick to tout his extensive legislative record, Mr. Reynoso questioned whether someone so reviled could accomplish anything more when stripped of influence outside of the footprint of Ridgewood Bushwick.

“Vito is extremely defiant—egomaniacal,” Mr. Reynoso said, suggesting the allegations only make Mr. Lopez more likely to run. “Every single day he has to prove something to the world. Who he harms along that path to self-fulfillment is insignificant to him … I don’t want my community to be left with a representative who’s not going to be able to help them.”

Mr. Reynoso said the scandal’s most salacious details have yet to permeate the community, and he admitted that Mr. Lopez’s most passionate supporters may not be swayed, but the appearance of the former assemblyman’s mug on the front page of the city’s tabloids has had an effect. “People know, they just don’t know how bad it is,” Mr. Reynoso said. “They know it’s in regards to sexual harassment, they just don’t know the details.”

It’s still unclear whether Mr. Lopez, who has not been criminally charged despite the sordid pile of evidence against him, will ultimately pursue a comeback campaign. Although he firmly stated his intention to run last week, he later indicated that the decision would be informed by his health as he receives treatments for cancer.

Should Mr. Lopez make the electoral leap, he can expect plenty of headwinds from the city’s political establishment. Many of Mr. Lopez’s former political allies have called on him to stand down, while almost every mayoral candidate and labor union has publicly thrown endorsements at Mr. Reynoso, who has his own base of support. For the first time, Mr. Lopez would be running effectively on his own.

What’s more, Bushwick and Williamsburg are less hardscrabble than they were when Mr. Lopez first arrived four decades ago. The western ends of Ms. Reyna’s district have been subjected to waves of gentrification, and the electorate has accordingly transformed.

“This gentrifying community, there is a voting bloc to it,” Mr. Reynoso said. “They tend to be more progressive and folks who really know what Vito is doing. They do read the Post and the Daily News.”

Additional reporting by Jill Colvin

Queens Borough President Helen Marshall. (Photo: Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Queens Borough President Helen Marshall holds one of the most prominent elected offices in Queens. But the 83-year-old lawmaker was apparently unaware until yesterday that John Liu was running for mayor.

During the Queens Democratic Party's endorsement event Monday, a reporter for a Chinese-language newspaper asked Ms. Marshall if she was disappointed the county hadn't backed Mr. Liu, who lives in the borough and used to represent it on the City Council. (They backed City Council Speaker Christine Quinn instead.)

According to a source who witnessed the conversation, an article in The China Press and an interview with the reporter who interviewed the borough president, Ms. Marshall appeared confused by the question.

Well, he's facing opposition in his re-election campaign for comptroller, Ms. Marshall reportedly answered. City Councilwoman Karen Koslowitz, who was standing near Ms. Marshall, leaned over to explain to her that Mr. Liu is actually running for mayor--prompting surprise.

Oh, I like him, I don't know why we didn't endorse him, then, Ms. Marshall reportedly replied.

Asked about the exchange on Tuesday, Dan Andrews, Ms. Marshall's spokesman, said the borough president was well aware of Mr. Liu's candidacy and didn't recall the conversation.

“She may have misspoken, thinking he is currently the comptroller," Mr. Andrews said. “I think that’s all it is.”

Ms. Marshall, who was elected in 2001 after serving in the City Council and the New York State Assembly, has just one year left in her final term. But some observers have raised questions about her muted activity. Colleagues described Ms. Marshall as increasingly absent-minded, sometimes repeating herself and forgetting things.

“It’s been getting worse over time,” observed one Queens Democratic source, who said this fall's election can't come soon enough. “I think she’s winding down a long political career and is less engaged in the job than she used to be," said another.

Others were less forgiving. "Nothing against Helen personally, but for several years she's been a couple miles past out to lunch," a Queens insider quipped. "On a good day."

The Daily News reported in April that Ms. Marshall, who gets paid $160,000 a year, has been increasing absent from her office and took off more than 40 days in 2012. She was reportedly off duty for much of the summer, in addition to numerous Mondays and Fridays throughout the year. According to the New York Post, she spends much of her time in the Hamptons and caring for her ailing husband.

Mr. Andrews dismissed the concerns as well as Ms. Marshall's absences.

“I would say that she’s [nearly] 84 years old," he said, noting that she only has another seven months left until her final term is up. "It’s another seven months and she’s doing the job .... I think what has to be done, she does."

(Photo: Newseum)

Headline of the Day: "Sal: Squeeze Weiner for cost of election."

Gov. Andrew Cuomo's aide forwarded New York Post columnist Fred Dicker's email to other reporters: “Monday, Vlasto forwarded that exchange to ten reporters with the subject 'off the record' and wrote, 'Just to clean of conscience, I never denied she was leaving. I, in fact, confirmed it.' 'Vlasto, in his grammatically challenged blast to other journalists this morning, created a totally false straw man by saying he ‘never denied’ Glazer was leaving,' Dicker told POLITICO. 'Well, I never wrote that Vlasto did deny it, just that he handed my story to someone else.'”

This was written before the devastating tornado hit Oklahoma, so Rep. Anthony Weiner's plan to fill the news cycle may have been modified since, but Politico reports Mr. Weiner "is set to declare his candidacy by video this week, likely on Tuesday or Wednesday." Politicker heard the Wednesday date from several sources as well but the information was second-hand.

Comptroller John Liu scored a nice endorsement from CWA Local 1180. "The rich and powerful in our city fear him because they can’t handle the truth," union president Arthur Cheliotes said. "By speaking truth to power, he has become the target of a smear campaign that is long on repetitive rhetoric and innuendo but short on the facts."

On Road to City Hall last night, Bill Thompson was asked if he had any hesitation in trumpeting the support of Rep. Greg Meeks, who has been the target of various investigations. “No, I think I have full faith in Congressman Meeks," Mr. Thompson replied. "I think he's been an excellent leader out in Queens ... I had no second thoughts, no hesitation."

The tabloid war against Speaker Shelly Silver continued this morning. The Daily News editorialized that his supporters were "all complicit in sneering at the law" and columnist Bill Hammond penned a critical column in the publication as well. The Post blasted Mr. Cuomo, whose governorship "will be held hostage by Shelly’s corruption."

And John Catsimatidis has a new mailer out where he says he could have been doing a better job at the MTA than his Republican rival, Joe Lhota. “Years of mismanagement is being balanced on the back of Staten Islanders," the ad reads. "John has the business acumen to restore the MTA to fiscal soundness."

Senator Ball. (Photo: Observer media file)

GOP State Senator Greg Ball, an outspoken Hudson Valley legislator who repeatedly knocked then-Rep. Nan Hayworth last year--even threatening to run a primary campaign against her--is taking his hat out of the ring. In a statement released late this morning, Mr. Ball said he was focused on his work in Albany and had no overriding desire to defeat the Democrat who ultimately beat Ms. Hayworth, Sean Patrick Maloney.

“I want to make it clear that I am focused on finishing this legislative session and delivering for my current district and not running for Congress," he said. “As for my re-election in the current State Senate seat, I will make a final decision on that as the time nears.”

However, showing his rebellious size, Mr. Ball did manage to heap some praise on the Democratic incumbent, whom he said should be "applauded."

"Indeed, while I disagree with the current Congressman on most issues, we have a great working relationship and he and his office are to be applauded, for they have bent over backwards to mutually assist shared constituents,” Mr. Ball sated.

For her part, Ms. Hayworth has formed a new campaign account for a rematch with Mr. Maloney as Democrats prepare to defend their congressional victories in last year's elections.

"EXCLUSIVE: Cuomo's war against the Kardashians." (Photo: Newseum)

Headline of the Day: "Shocker! Post finds honest NY politician."

This is an interesting editorial: "As Kanye West puts it: 'We want pre-nup!' From New York pols, that is. Rich folk insist on prenuptial agreements all the time. West’s partner, Kim Kardashian, and her ex, Kris Humphries, did. As have countless others. It’s time New Yorkers insisted on one, too — for the political marriage we enter into with the politicians we elect ... And we’d even give Kanye the credit."

The barrage continues against Speaker Shelly Silver over his inolvement in covering up sexual harassment claims against Assemblyman Vito Lopez. The Daily News and New York Post have three columns up today, for example, and over the weekend, the two pounded him in additional editorials. Mr. Silver's spokesman said the idea of him stepping down was "ridiculous." 

Tell us how you really feel, Post columnist Fred Dicker: "The Post ... made the mistake of giving Cuomo’s increasingly notorious spokesman, Josh Vlasto, an opportunity to respond. Within an hour, Cuomo’s office leaked the exclusive to the Albany Times-Union. Vlasto, considered untrustworthy by many reporters ..."

The primary run-off election continues to look like a potential disaster thanks to a "bumbling" Board of Elections. “If you ask me if the B.O.E. is doing a terrible job, I would say to you it's not the B.O.E., that it's just following the law," board president Fred Umane insisted. “It's the guidelines, rules, limitations, and statutes we have to live with.”

While Councilman David Greenfield and Assemblyman Dov Hikind exchanged some public jabs. Mr. Hikind speculated Saturday that Mr. Greenfield is behind a critical blogger. On Sunday, Mr. Greenfield mocked a Lopez conspiracy theory by tweeting, "Dov Hikind tells people I'm to blame for his 'blackface' incident. Must be something in the Albany water!"

Might already-indicted State Senator John Sampson have performed the standard nonprofit graft that has landed so many other pols in hot water too? Investigators are now looking into $40,000 that Mr. Sampson steered to a politically influential partner's charity.

We missed this interview Chirlane McCray, wife of Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, did last week. So in case you did too:

City Comptroller John Liu. (Photo: Getty Images)

City Comptroller John Liu will announce the endorsement of a slew of Democratic officials from across Brooklyn Friday in another effort by his mayoral campaign to show he's gaining steam, despite the recent guilty verdicts against his former campaign treasurer and a fund-raiser.

The supporters include Assemblywoman Inez Barron, City Council candidate Ari Kagan, and Democratic district leaders Melba Brown, Betty Ann Canizio, Jeanette Givant,  Christopher Olechowski, Chris Owens, Corey Provost and Charles Ragusa.

The ethnically diverse batch of endorsers hail from neighborhoods across the borough, including Greenpoint, East New York, Crown Heights, Bensonhurst and Brighton Beach. Additionally, they include both establishment-types like Mr. Olechowski--who defeated Lincoln Restler, a thorn in the side of the county leadership--last year, and at least one Brownstone Brooklyn reformer in the form of Mr. Owens.

"New Yorkers need independent and effective leadership who will stand up for communities across the city and tackle the problems of poverty, systemic unemployment, school closings, racial profiling, foreclosures and low paying jobs,” said Ms. Barron, the wife of outspoken City Councilman Charles Barron, in a statement. “We need immediate change and the best mayoral candidate to offer bold solutions and get things done is John Liu.” Mr. Barron, also a district leader, had previously endorsed Mr. Liu.

"I support John for Mayor because he understands the needs of all people with different social economic backgrounds who need help making ends meet and the reforms needed to give our students a solid education to compete in this global economy,” said Ms. Canizio.

Senator D'Amato in 1996. (Photo: Getty)

In what may be the most direct and harsh attack to emerge from her campaign so far, Council Speaker Christine Quinn took her Democratic rival Bill Thompson to task today for his cross-partisan support from former Senator Al D'Amato.

"Al D’Amato isn’t just anti-woman," an email from Ms. Quinn's campaign declared to supporters, "he is anti-choice, anti-Medicare, and anti-civil rights. He also had the dubious honor of being known as the most investigated Senator in New York history."

Earlier this morning, the New York Times profiled Mr. D'Amato's extensive fund-raising efforts for Mr. Thompson. In the piece, Mr. D'Amato slammed Ms. Quinn as “a political boss in the worst sense.” Earlier this week, Mr. D'Amato also mocked  Ms. Quinn for revealing she had suffered from bulimia and alcoholism.

Reacting to this, the Quinn campaign declared that Mr. D'Amato, a Republican who lost to now-Senator Chuck Schumer in 1998, would gain a "toehold in City Hall" if his candidate won.

"Now, as the chief fundraiser for one of the Democrats running for mayor, Al D’Amato is attacking Christine Quinn," the email continued. "But fortunately, it's going to backfire. The last thing Democrats are looking for in a Mayor of New York is someone who is “proud” to have Al D’Amato’s support. Al D’Amato opposes everything Democrats stand for. Thankfully, Al D’Amato was thrown out of the U.S. Senate in 1998, but what we don’t need is Al D’Amato getting a toehold in City Hall."

For a campaign that has largely limited its attacks to barbed responses to her rivals' aggressions--usually from Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, not Mr. Thompson--Ms. Quinn's criticisms today stand out. However it was not an all-out attack. The email did not mention Mr. Thompson by name or refer directly to Mr. D'Amato's comments on her revelations. Instead, her campaign, the nominal front-runner in public polls, simply sought to position itself as one opposed to the former senator's more conservative political brand.

"Help us send a message to anti-choice, anti-Medicare, anti-gun control Al D’Amato that, as Democrats, we’re not interested in the kind of right-wing attack-style politics that are synonymous with his name," they concluded, urging volunteers to sign up to work on Ms. Quinn's behalf.

The Thompson campaign did not immediately return a request for comment.

Update (2:55 p.m.):

Mr. Thompson's campaign fired back with its own sharply-worded email to supporters titled "Character Counts" penned by two of his most prominent female supporters: Betsy Gotbaum, the former public advocate, and Merryl Tisch. In it, they described Mr. Thompson as "the only candidate with the experience and temperament to get things things done"--a not-so-veiled attack against Ms. Quinn.

Here's the full letter:

This election is about real leadership on the issues women - and all New Yorkers - care about.  For us, the choice is simple. Bill Thompson is the only candidate with the experience and temperament to get things done. He'll lead on issues like expanding equality, creating better schools, ensuring safer streets, and growing our middle class. 

That's why we're asking you to click here and join "Women for Thompson!"

Character counts. Bill is only candidate in this race who has provided the real leadership every New Yorker in every borough deserves.

Thanks again,

Merryl and Betsy

P.S. - We're with Bill - and women across New York should be too. Join Bill today by signing up for "Women for Thompson."

(photo: newseum.org)

Headline of the Day: "From Sampson advocating a shield to advocating a hit list?"

Alternative: "If I run, I’ll run hard: Weiner."

In the wake of yesterday's damning allegations against Assemblyman Vito Lopez, calls for Speaker Shelly Silver's head have increased. The Daily News demanded the Assembly "dump" Mr. Silver, for example, while the New York Post said Mr. Silver's continued influence is "the real scandal." And Post columnist Fred Dicker penned a piece entitled, "Time’s up! Shameful Shelly has got to go."

Mr. Lopez's attorney, Gerald Lefcourt, certainly had no problem kicking sand into Mr. Silver's face along the way either. “It is no secret, except perhaps from the public, that stories of the speaker’s serial and sometimes overlapping personal relationships with his own staff have long circulated in Albany,” he declared in a letter. A Silver spokesman rejected the claims.

The was fast. The same day the Post reported that mayoral candidate Bill Thompson, once friendly with Mr. Lopez, may back his Council bid, Mr. Thompson said this: “There is no place in government for Assemblyman Lopez ... There's no place in the Assembly for Assemblyman Lopez. There's no place in the City Council for Assemblyman Lopez also ... There is no place in government for Assemblyman Lopez ... There is no place in government for him."

While The New York Times looked at former GOP Senator Al D'Amato's passionate support for Mr. Thompson, a Democrat whom he said "doesn’t frighten business ... They don’t have fear of Bill Thompson, that he’s going to do some radical proposal that’s going to hurt their business.” In contrast, he said, Council Speaker Chris Quinn represents "old-style bossism, cronyism, of the worst kind.”

Quinn spokesman Mike Morey didn't take kindly to the charge, however: “Al D’Amato accusing someone of bossism is like the Kardashians calling someone gaudy," he told the Times. "Knowing what we know about antichoice, anti-gun-control, anti-Medicare Al D’Amato, voters should decide whether he’s supporting Bill Thompson because he agrees with him on the issues or because he thinks it will help his lobbying business.”

Former Rep. Anthony Weiner yesterday dismissed reports that he's having a hard time filling key positions in his campaigns. “We’re going to make a decision soon ... A matter of days," he further insisted. Mr. Weiner then made a cryptic remark to photographers following him: “Live by the sword, die by the sword.” NY1 is reporting Mr. Weiner's mayoral announcement will be next week.

And yet another mayoral contender, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, discussed his proposal for a municipal identification card for undocumented immigrants both on Road to City Hall and at a street renaming press conference:

Vito Lopez. (Photo: NYS Assembly)

Assemblyman Vito Lopez is not happy with today's state ethics commission's report detailing the sexual harassment allegations that former staff members have lodged against him. Accordingly, Mr. Lopez blasted both the report's process and its findings in a lengthy, 3-page statement released this afternoon.

"Salacious and sensational claims in the JCOPE report are fallacious," Mr. Lopez said, referring to the Joint Commission on Public Ethics and writing in third-person perspective. "These claims, including that he made sexual references to a 14 year old intern and 'opined that statutory rape laws should not exist', are simply not true."

Mr. Lopez, marveling at the breadth of the accusations while lamenting his inability to question the witnesses, concluded by stating that the allegations are part of an "all out war against an ailing senior member," based in the politics--perhaps his potential City Council run and or the enemies he made as the former chair of the Brooklyn Democratic Party.

"There is an all out war against an ailing senior member. One must wonder why the actions in this matter were addressed without due process," he said. "Mr. Lopez looks forward to a hearing where all the facts are openly discussed and reviewed. Assemblyman Lopez continues to maintain his innocence and understands the political agenda involved in the one-sided nature of the findings."

View the embattled assemblyman's full statement below: