If MSNBC commentator Chris Matthews does indeed decide to run for U.S. Senate in 2010, he can take heart in a body of polling data that gives him a shot against the popular U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.).
A poll released today shows Matthews trailing Specter by 13 points, a modest deficit considering Election Day is two years away and Matthews has yet to indicate whether or not he will run.
In the survey by Public Policy Polling, Specter garners 40 percent of the vote, compared to 27 percent for Matthews. But a third of the electorate is undecided, according to the poll of more than 1,500 likely voters conducted shortly before last week's election.
A Quinnipiac poll in August showed Specter leading Matthews by only 5 points in the potential match-up.
"Arlen Specter would definitely start out as the favorite if Chris Matthews challenged him," said Dean Debnam, Public Policy Polling's president. "But this poll provides clear evidence that a Matthews candidacy is not a non-starter. Pennsylvania voters would listen to what he has to say and give him a shot."
One thing the polls don't take into account is a potentially grueling primary contest that it would be difficult for Matthews to survive. Many names have been floated as possible Democratic nominees to take on Specter, including U.S. Reps. Allyson Schwartz (D-Abington) and Joe Sestak (D-Edgmont). It's reasonable to believe that both would have more party support than Matthews, making it tough for him to even get to the general election.
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