If you talk to Republican operatives around the state, privately they will confess that it wouldn’t be such a bad thing for them if same-sex marriage was legalized in New York State. Popular opinion is moving in favor of it, and the issue has mobilized a whole lot of money and whole of lot of manpower against the last bastion of Republicanism in state government, the State Senate. If gay marriage could just become law, then the energy would dissipate, and 2012 would look a whole lot less rocky for the G.O.P.
But here’s the rub: there isn’t much incentive for any single Republican legislator to take the plunge and be the one to make same-sex marriage the law of the land.
Most Republicans believe that if same-sex marriage passes, they will be abandoned by marriage equality groups at the next ballot box. People have short memories in politics, and civil rights groups are far more likely to support a Democrat who will back their issues in the next legislative term than back a Republican who supported one issue in the last term.
Instead, whichever Republican does vote to legalize gay marriage will face a storm of opprobrium from their right flank, as Tea Partiers and social conservatives threaten primaries.
Update:
Brian Ellner, who is leading the New York campaign for marriage equality, called to push back on the notion that gay rights groups will abandon Republican lawmakers who vote in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage.
“We are in it for the long haul with any supporter of gay marriage,” he said. “We have not lost a single supporter because of their support of marriage equality in an election and we are certainly not going to start now.”
Ellner also said that gay rights groups would support a G.O.P. legislator if they voted for marriage equality now, even if their Democratic opponent in 2012 was better on most of the issues of importance to them.
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have you ever heard of the log cabin republicans? how about republican assembly members who voted for marriage for same-sex couples in 07 and 09? i’d dare say the empire state pride agenda got their backs.
Any Republican who thinks that passing same-sex marriage legislation will help the party retain control of the Senate has to be smoking crack cocaine. There are a heck of a lot more conservatives upstate and on Long Island than there are homosexual activists–let alone homosexual activists willing to support Republicans.
Gov Cuomo said that the legalization will allow 50,000 gay couples to marry. That’s 100,000 votes, most of which are in Manhattan and the Republicans have 2 senators Lanza from SI and Golden in Brooklyn that don’t have many voters that put gay marriage on their top 20 list.
There is no upside since 2012 is presidential year and the ECONOMY will be the # 1 issue. If the Republicans had any leadership, they would be pounding Cuomo on the lack of any plan to get new york back to work.
There are 1 million gay new yorkers and supporters watching this and waiting to spring into action. The notion that the only people who care are the ones that will actually walk down the aisle this year is misconceived and politically naive,