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	<title>Politicker &#187; The Predictions for NY26: Hochul Edges Corwin, Davis Trails</title>
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		<title>Politicker &#187; The Predictions for NY26: Hochul Edges Corwin, Davis Trails</title>
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		<title>The Predictions for NY26: Hochul Edges Corwin, Davis Trails</title>

		<comments>http://politicker.com/2011/05/predictions-for-ny26/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 May 2011 21:00:40 -0400</pubDate>
					<link>http://politicker.com/2011/05/predictions-for-ny26/</link>
			<dc:creator>Azi Paybarah</dc:creator>
				
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.politicker.com/?p=1601</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><div id="attachment_1606" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://nyopoliticker.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/ny26-222.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-1606" title="ny26-222" src="http://nyopoliticker.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/ny26-222.jpg?w=300&h=193" alt="" width="300" height="193" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Hochul, Davis and Corwin. (graphic via www.politicsplus.org)</p></div></p>
<p>By now, the polls have closed and the counting is underway. It's unclear when exactly a winner will be declared. Part of the reason is because of Jane Corwin's <a href="http://www.buffalonews.com/incoming/article432430.ece">court-ordered injunction</a> on declaring a winner, and, more generally, it's a close race and counting paper ballots is never a quick or easy process.</p>
<p>Most people are going with public opinion polls, which give Democrat Kathy Hochul a slight lead. Although, <em>Times Union</em> reporter Jimmy Vielkind is giving the edge to Corwin.</p>
<p>Nobody is predicting a Jack Davis upset (but my mom thinks he'll get more than 20 percent).</p>
<p>Anyway, here are the predictions, made by some very brave, and smart, politicos, before the polls closed.<!--more--></p>
<p><!-- p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica} p.p2 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica; min-height: 14.0px} --></p>
<p>"Hochul by 5" - <a href="http://www.politico.com/reporters/MaggieHaberman.html">Maggie Haberman</a>, Politico senior reporter</p>
<p>"Corwin wins!" - <a href="http://www.ecgop.com/leadership">Nick Langworthy</a>, Erie County GOP Chairman</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Hochul-51, Corwin-39, Davis-10 - Jon Lipe, <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/@NY26volunteer">@NY26volunteer</a></p>
<p>Hochul-50, Corwin-42, Davis-8    - Jonathan Yedin, a Democratic operative</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Hochul-47, Corwin-46, Davis-6, Murphy-1 - <a href="http://www.primeny.com/who.html">Jerry Skurnik</a>, consultant, Prime New York</p>
<p>Hochul-47, Corwin-46, Davis-6, Murphy-1 - Andrew Carden, New Paltz student</p>
<p>Hochul-47, Corwin-43, Davis-10 -<a href="http://www.salon.com/author/steve_kornacki/index.html"> Steve Kornacki,</a> Salon news editor</p>
<p>Hochul-47, Corwin-44, Davis-8, Other-1 - Jeremy Rosenberg, GWU student, dir. of political affairs - Green GW</p>
<p>Hochul-47, Corwin-43, Davis-8 -   <a href="http://www.greenbergpr.com/about.shtml">Steven Greenberg</a>, Greenberg Public Relations</p>
<p>Hochul-47, Corwin-43, Davis-10 - <a href="http://www.capalino.com/principals#fontas">George Fontas</a>, Democratic consultant</p>
<p>Hochul-47, Corwin-39, Davis-10 - <a href="http://flavors.me/katiehonan">Katie Honan</a>, NBC NY social media editor</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Hochul-46, Corwin-45, Davis-8 -   <a href="http://www.lincolnrestler.org/about/l.html">Lincoln Restler</a>, Brooklyn Democratic district leader</p>
<p>Hochul-46, Corwin-42, Davis-12 - <a href="http://manhattanmedia.com/press.php">Tom Allon</a>, Manhattan Media publisher</p>
<p>Hochul-46, Corwin-42, Davis-10 - <a href="http://www.berlinrosen.com/our-team/dan-levitan/">Dan Levitan</a>, Democratic consultant</p>
<p>Hochul-46, Corwin-41, Davis-12, Murphy-1 - Alexander Su, a reader "I would like a t-shirt if I win."</p>
<p>Hochul-45.6, Corwin-41.9, Davis-11.4, Murphy-1.1 - <a href="http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/">Colin Campbell</a>, Brooklyn Politics</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Hochul-45, Corwin-45, Davis-10 - <a href="http://www.nypirg.org/goodgov/lecf_10/">Bill Mahoney</a>, NYPRIG research coordinator</p>
<p>Hochul-45, Corwin-42, Davis-13 - Kevin Elkins, Democratic operative</p>
<p>Hochul-45, Corwin-41, Davis-12, Murphy-2 - <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/nickrizzo">Nick Rizzo</a>, reporter</p>
<p>Hochul-45, Corwin-40, Davis-15 - <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/4ShotsOverIce">Ryan Naples</a> "Cuomo campaigner, environmental lawyer"</p>
<p>Hochul-44, Corwin-41, Davis-15 - <a href="http://redhorsestrategies.com/">Doug Forand</a>, Democratic consultant, Red Horse Strategies</p>
<p>Hochul-44, Corwin-39, Davis-15 - <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/@LegalCelebrity">@LegalCelebrity</a></p>
<p>Hochul-43, Corwin-40, Davis-17 - @jakegronie "proud dork, liberal, sports fan"</p>
<p>Hochul-41, Corwin-39, Davis-19.5 - Murphy-.5 - <a href="http://caputopr.com/bio.php">Michael Caputo</a>, Republican operative</p>
<p>Hochul-40, Corwin-38, Davis-22 - <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/mp3teach">Myra Paybarah</a>, my mom</p>
<p>Hochul-38, Corwin-34, Davis-29 - <a href="http://curtiscast.com/morning-team/">Frank Morano</a>, radio producer</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Corwin-46, Hochul-45, Davis-8, Murphy-1 - <a href="http://www.timesunion.com/jimmyvielkind/">Jimmy Vielkind</a>, <em>Times Union</em> reporter</p>
<p>Corwin-46, Hochul-44, Davis-5 - Ryan Shanley, a reader</p>
<p>Corwin-47, Hochul-45, Davis-8 - <a href="http://www.baruch.cuny.edu/spa/facultystaff/facultydirectory/bio_douglas_muzzio.php">Doug Muzzio</a>, Baruch professor. "Total guess, no art or science."</p>
<p>Corwin-45, Hochul-39, Davis-16 - <a href="http://www.teanewyork.com/">Jul Thompson</a>, TeaNew York chief organizer</p>
<p>Corwin-42, Hochul-40, Davis-17, Ian Murphy-1 - Steve Kramer, robocall <a href="http://www.politicker.com/2011/05/24/the-voice-behind-an-angry-anonymous-robocall/">specialist</a></p>
<p>Corwin-40, Hochul-38, Davis-2 - <a href="http://www.nicholaslence.com/our-team/bill-o%E2%80%99reilly">Bill O'Reilly</a>, Republican consultant</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><div id="attachment_1606" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://nyopoliticker.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/ny26-222.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-1606" title="ny26-222" src="http://nyopoliticker.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/ny26-222.jpg?w=300&h=193" alt="" width="300" height="193" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Hochul, Davis and Corwin. (graphic via www.politicsplus.org)</p></div></p>
<p>By now, the polls have closed and the counting is underway. It's unclear when exactly a winner will be declared. Part of the reason is because of Jane Corwin's <a href="http://www.buffalonews.com/incoming/article432430.ece">court-ordered injunction</a> on declaring a winner, and, more generally, it's a close race and counting paper ballots is never a quick or easy process.</p>
<p>Most people are going with public opinion polls, which give Democrat Kathy Hochul a slight lead. Although, <em>Times Union</em> reporter Jimmy Vielkind is giving the edge to Corwin.</p>
<p>Nobody is predicting a Jack Davis upset (but my mom thinks he'll get more than 20 percent).</p>
<p>Anyway, here are the predictions, made by some very brave, and smart, politicos, before the polls closed.<!--more--></p>
<p><!-- p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica} p.p2 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 12.0px Helvetica; min-height: 14.0px} --></p>
<p>"Hochul by 5" - <a href="http://www.politico.com/reporters/MaggieHaberman.html">Maggie Haberman</a>, Politico senior reporter</p>
<p>"Corwin wins!" - <a href="http://www.ecgop.com/leadership">Nick Langworthy</a>, Erie County GOP Chairman</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Hochul-51, Corwin-39, Davis-10 - Jon Lipe, <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/@NY26volunteer">@NY26volunteer</a></p>
<p>Hochul-50, Corwin-42, Davis-8    - Jonathan Yedin, a Democratic operative</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Hochul-47, Corwin-46, Davis-6, Murphy-1 - <a href="http://www.primeny.com/who.html">Jerry Skurnik</a>, consultant, Prime New York</p>
<p>Hochul-47, Corwin-46, Davis-6, Murphy-1 - Andrew Carden, New Paltz student</p>
<p>Hochul-47, Corwin-43, Davis-10 -<a href="http://www.salon.com/author/steve_kornacki/index.html"> Steve Kornacki,</a> Salon news editor</p>
<p>Hochul-47, Corwin-44, Davis-8, Other-1 - Jeremy Rosenberg, GWU student, dir. of political affairs - Green GW</p>
<p>Hochul-47, Corwin-43, Davis-8 -   <a href="http://www.greenbergpr.com/about.shtml">Steven Greenberg</a>, Greenberg Public Relations</p>
<p>Hochul-47, Corwin-43, Davis-10 - <a href="http://www.capalino.com/principals#fontas">George Fontas</a>, Democratic consultant</p>
<p>Hochul-47, Corwin-39, Davis-10 - <a href="http://flavors.me/katiehonan">Katie Honan</a>, NBC NY social media editor</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Hochul-46, Corwin-45, Davis-8 -   <a href="http://www.lincolnrestler.org/about/l.html">Lincoln Restler</a>, Brooklyn Democratic district leader</p>
<p>Hochul-46, Corwin-42, Davis-12 - <a href="http://manhattanmedia.com/press.php">Tom Allon</a>, Manhattan Media publisher</p>
<p>Hochul-46, Corwin-42, Davis-10 - <a href="http://www.berlinrosen.com/our-team/dan-levitan/">Dan Levitan</a>, Democratic consultant</p>
<p>Hochul-46, Corwin-41, Davis-12, Murphy-1 - Alexander Su, a reader "I would like a t-shirt if I win."</p>
<p>Hochul-45.6, Corwin-41.9, Davis-11.4, Murphy-1.1 - <a href="http://www.thebrooklynpolitics.com/">Colin Campbell</a>, Brooklyn Politics</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Hochul-45, Corwin-45, Davis-10 - <a href="http://www.nypirg.org/goodgov/lecf_10/">Bill Mahoney</a>, NYPRIG research coordinator</p>
<p>Hochul-45, Corwin-42, Davis-13 - Kevin Elkins, Democratic operative</p>
<p>Hochul-45, Corwin-41, Davis-12, Murphy-2 - <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/nickrizzo">Nick Rizzo</a>, reporter</p>
<p>Hochul-45, Corwin-40, Davis-15 - <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/4ShotsOverIce">Ryan Naples</a> "Cuomo campaigner, environmental lawyer"</p>
<p>Hochul-44, Corwin-41, Davis-15 - <a href="http://redhorsestrategies.com/">Doug Forand</a>, Democratic consultant, Red Horse Strategies</p>
<p>Hochul-44, Corwin-39, Davis-15 - <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/@LegalCelebrity">@LegalCelebrity</a></p>
<p>Hochul-43, Corwin-40, Davis-17 - @jakegronie "proud dork, liberal, sports fan"</p>
<p>Hochul-41, Corwin-39, Davis-19.5 - Murphy-.5 - <a href="http://caputopr.com/bio.php">Michael Caputo</a>, Republican operative</p>
<p>Hochul-40, Corwin-38, Davis-22 - <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/mp3teach">Myra Paybarah</a>, my mom</p>
<p>Hochul-38, Corwin-34, Davis-29 - <a href="http://curtiscast.com/morning-team/">Frank Morano</a>, radio producer</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Corwin-46, Hochul-45, Davis-8, Murphy-1 - <a href="http://www.timesunion.com/jimmyvielkind/">Jimmy Vielkind</a>, <em>Times Union</em> reporter</p>
<p>Corwin-46, Hochul-44, Davis-5 - Ryan Shanley, a reader</p>
<p>Corwin-47, Hochul-45, Davis-8 - <a href="http://www.baruch.cuny.edu/spa/facultystaff/facultydirectory/bio_douglas_muzzio.php">Doug Muzzio</a>, Baruch professor. "Total guess, no art or science."</p>
<p>Corwin-45, Hochul-39, Davis-16 - <a href="http://www.teanewyork.com/">Jul Thompson</a>, TeaNew York chief organizer</p>
<p>Corwin-42, Hochul-40, Davis-17, Ian Murphy-1 - Steve Kramer, robocall <a href="http://www.politicker.com/2011/05/24/the-voice-behind-an-angry-anonymous-robocall/">specialist</a></p>
<p>Corwin-40, Hochul-38, Davis-2 - <a href="http://www.nicholaslence.com/our-team/bill-o%E2%80%99reilly">Bill O'Reilly</a>, Republican consultant</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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